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Original poster

What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

559 replies

43leftfeet · 05/12/2021 23:19

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

OP posts:
AlecTrevelyan006 · 07/12/2021 13:45

@churchofthepoisonmind

I wonder when we’ll finally admit the ‘cure’ was worse than the disease. And lockdowns didn’t even cure anything. Merely prolonged this. To great cost. Lots of us said this right from the start but no leader can ever admit it. It would be political suicide. They all privately know it's true though. Look at the costs in terms of impact on education, missed cancer appointments, mental health, suicides, ruined lives, wrecked relationships - the list is never ending. First it was three weeks to flatten the curve. Then it was vaccines are our way out of this. Well we now have very high rates of vaccination and look where we are - talk, again, of the NHS being on the verge of being overwhelmed (NHS seems to be in a perpetual state of being overwhelmed!). People seem to think of only we could get a few more people vaccinated, all will be rosy in the garden. They are living in absolute Cuckoo Land. It's like a mass psychosis.
Yep. 100%
Starcup · 07/12/2021 13:52

@churchofthepoisonmind

I wonder when we’ll finally admit the ‘cure’ was worse than the disease. And lockdowns didn’t even cure anything. Merely prolonged this. To great cost. Lots of us said this right from the start but no leader can ever admit it. It would be political suicide. They all privately know it's true though. Look at the costs in terms of impact on education, missed cancer appointments, mental health, suicides, ruined lives, wrecked relationships - the list is never ending. First it was three weeks to flatten the curve. Then it was vaccines are our way out of this. Well we now have very high rates of vaccination and look where we are - talk, again, of the NHS being on the verge of being overwhelmed (NHS seems to be in a perpetual state of being overwhelmed!). People seem to think of only we could get a few more people vaccinated, all will be rosy in the garden. They are living in absolute Cuckoo Land. It's like a mass psychosis.
I totally agree with this.

This virus is here to stay. It’ll never go anywhere. We’re all destined to be ruled by the next ‘variant’.

What we know of it is that it does discriminate with who it affects. That might change in the future, but if that day comes and it literally doesn’t discriminate, then I would say that’s the beginning of the end for mankind and we’re all in trouble.

Starcup · 07/12/2021 13:53

To add, right now, the majority of people will be absolutely fine

Player067 · 07/12/2021 13:58

@Unphased

Player067 Brexit hasn’t and will not shut the worldwide economy, causing all the price rises and material shortages, causing millions of deaths etc,, ( nothing to do with Brexit ) I can’t see how they can make that prediction without knowing the full course covid has torun, like most of them reports, done by remainers.
No it hasn't "shut the worldwide economy" but will in the longer term damage the UK economy more than the pandemic, acc to the OBR. LOL @ "done by remainers" dear oh dear.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020

Kokeshi123 · 07/12/2021 14:02

Would that apply to anyone refusing the flu jab or any other vaccine as well?

No idea! I mean, I'm not advocating for triaging of the deliberately unvaxxed particularly---just saying that eventually it may happen due to lack of other options on the table.

generalh · 07/12/2021 14:02

I am going to Portsmouth this weekend to see my son who is due home from an 8 month deployment. Then on Boxing Day I am travelling to Cambridge to celebrate Christmas with him but staying in a hotel. I will be so cross if that doesn't happen.

PinkSparklyPussyCat · 07/12/2021 14:06

Sorry @Kokeshi123, I was sort of thinking aloud!

vickyc90 · 07/12/2021 14:15

[quote Thismonkeysgonetolidl]@RichTeaRichTea do you work in ICU in a hospital?

The people there are the priority. Other people still have a chance at life, however shitty restrictions may be. They still have a modicum of freedom. The people in ICU have NO freedom. It’s these people who are the priority.
I have absolutely no problem in not having an Xmas for however long it takes if it means we get the virus under control.[/quote]
What do you think under control means, omicron is looking more and more like a common cold in which case we have succeeded in controlling it to the point the cure is worse than the disease.

We can't live forever, we lost a friend to suicide due to lockdown. Yet the only person we know who died due to covid was already end of life. I know who's death haunts me to this day. It isn't the COVID one

Underparmummy · 07/12/2021 14:49

Any vaccine refusers in the ICU can go jump though? Why the actual fuck should we lockdown for them?

rrhuth · 07/12/2021 15:20

@Underparmummy

Any vaccine refusers in the ICU can go jump though? Why the actual fuck should we lockdown for them?
Please explain how this works in practice here in the real world? Life is not as simple as just typing out a little rant.
Delatron · 07/12/2021 15:36

I hear ‘get the virus under control’ so much, what does this mean? For how long? What restrictions do you think would have an impact and what happens when we remove restrictions?

rrhuth · 07/12/2021 15:48

@Delatron

I hear ‘get the virus under control’ so much, what does this mean? For how long? What restrictions do you think would have an impact and what happens when we remove restrictions?
There are three mathematical possibilities:
  • Cases rising
  • Cases roughly stable
  • Cases falling

We have to ensure we do not get into a sustained period of cases rising a bit, or a short period of cases rising rapidly - if either of these happen we end up in a place where there are serious issues.

That is what under control means - cases not rising. The acceptable baseline is debatable.

The problem is the UK government is thick slow to react, so they do not respond early enough. The earlier you react, the fewer measures you need to push the line back down to flat or falling.

GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing · 07/12/2021 15:52

There might be something, but what?

Restrictions on mixing with other households - no one will keep to it, or very few

Closing businesses - unlikely to happen because of the economic effects

Closing schools- most unlikely of all unless we want a generation (kids that were in the infants in 2020 in particular) that will never catch up

Travel restrictions? Can’t go to other parts of thebUK? Maybe, but tbh that’s the one i dislike most!

drpaddington · 07/12/2021 15:54

No I don't think so, mostly because there will be little point when many people won't follow it anyway. Probably some restrictions in January though.

PinkSparklyPussyCat · 07/12/2021 15:56

@Underparmummy

Any vaccine refusers in the ICU can go jump though? Why the actual fuck should we lockdown for them?
As someone who doesn't know if they'll keep being vaccinated due to a needle phobia I wouldn't expect anyone to lock down for me.
GoldenOmber · 07/12/2021 16:04

The earlier you react, the fewer measures you need to push the line back down to flat or falling.

And then you relax those measures, and it goes back up again.

I do think it was reasonable to throw everything we had at it to get cases down back in January, as a temporary thing to buy time for vaccines. But now, what would we be buying time for?

If we use restrictions to get cases down then we either keep those restrictions in place indefinitely, or we accept that cases will go back up again for a while when we let go of them. There isn’t a scenario where we get cases down and then they stay down all by themselves.

MarshaBradyo · 07/12/2021 16:11

We’ve had fairly steady hospitalisation for months without many restrictions so in that sense it was working.

How we react to a mutation before we know variables is another issue. Since cases get in before you can react is border control right? Then either way you’ll be under or over reacting. It takes a few weeks to know.

Unphased · 07/12/2021 17:22

Player067
How can anyone possibly say with any truth or honesty that Brexit will cost more than Brexit, nobody knows what covid has in store for us in the future , how long it will last, how many more variants there will be, will we lockdown again and for how long, any more restrictions, will we be able to travel again etc etc, how possibly can you make a honest and reliable prediction without all the know facts, you are either lying or a remainder,

IntermittentParps · 07/12/2021 17:26

Very slim. If people are asked to lock down and miss another Christmas with family and friends, there will be riots, and the government knows it. Especially given Johnson's Christmas parties last year.
I think there'll be one in Jan or Feb though.

Nospringchook · 07/12/2021 17:34

Maybe a restriction on numbers at public gatherings, but I doubt there will be any across the board lock down. I think what we have to ask ourselves is, do we want to be at functions with hundreds, risking a family gathering of our nearest and dearest?

RichTeaRichTea · 07/12/2021 17:36

I don’t think there would be riots. I think a lot of people would go very quiet on social media.

Fairylights25 · 07/12/2021 17:37

The government if they need to will clamp down after Christmas, there is no way it will happen before. Even if cases explode (and there is no sign of that just now, and it takes time to gather momentum) we can still get to Christmas - there is still plenty of bed space in hospitals for now. Post Christmas is anyones guess, but the gov will be happy for the nation to at least celebrate Christmas this year regardless of what the NY brings. It is the 7th already. Run down the clock until the spring boosters are here to deal with Omicron. Another winter under the belt...

MarshaBradyo · 07/12/2021 17:38

@RichTeaRichTea

I don’t think there would be riots. I think a lot of people would go very quiet on social media.
Do you mean because they would just meet anyway?
Leedsfan247 · 07/12/2021 17:40

There won’t be any restrictions in number 10

duffeldaisy · 07/12/2021 17:43

"I have had my 3 vaccines, I follow good hygiene (hand sanitiser and so on) but will never follow lockdown restrictions again."

If this version is more deadly to small children, I'd imagine most people with any kind of heart would follow lockdown restrictions. And I can't see them bringing in a lockdown unless it is that severe a risk.

Hopefully it will be mild, but there's not enough data at the moment because there's always a lag of weeks before anyone dies.