What are the chances of lockdown this Christmas?

[43leftfeet]

I've been away this weekend (UK, but I've been distracted and not following the news).

I see there's been talk of Johnson announcing a "ban on Christmas" possibly, around the 17th - or not, depending on what happens with Omicron - is that about right?

I know we can't know yet what's going to happen, but what are people's feelings?

What do you think the restrictions, if any, are likely to be in England & Wales & in Scotland?

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown. No it’s not going away but to let it run rife over winter will mean chaos for A&E and other services. I don’t want a lockdown and I’m boosted but we can’t just keep on living as though it doesn’t exist.

I think we need to remember ‘hospital admissions’ often include a large percentage of people who are in hospital for something else and just happened to test positive whilst there. So they would be in hospital anyway, therefore no extra pressure from them.

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown.

Is it?

For how long?

Have we accurately understood the costs of lockdowns to date, let alone further ones?

At what point will we address the actual problem (our health service is insufficient) rather than lockdown society every winter to avoid confronting this?

@Benjispruce5

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown. No it’s not going away but to let it run rife over winter will mean chaos for A&E and other services. I don’t want a lockdown and I’m boosted but we can’t just keep on living as though it doesn’t exist.

So we just have "strict" lockdowns every winter then? No thanks.

With the No 10 Christmas party debacle going on, I can't see a lockdown sticking.

@TheKeatingFive

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown.

Is it?

For how long?

Have we accurately understood the costs of lockdowns to date, let alone further ones?

At what point will we address the actual problem (our health service is insufficient) rather than lockdown society every winter to avoid confronting this?

All of this @TheKeatingFive - the problem is not covid, its the health service that is the problem. "Strict lockdowns" just enable the government to brush that under the carpet.

"Strict lockdowns" just enable the government to brush that under the carpet.

Strict lockdowns that they themselves have no intention of complying with, let's not forget

@TheKeatingFive

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown.

Is it?

For how long?

Have we accurately understood the costs of lockdowns to date, let alone further ones?

At what point will we address the actual problem (our health service is insufficient) rather than lockdown society every winter to avoid confronting this?

We have three weeks to save the NHS

Didn’t you get the memo?

So is there a press conference later or not? Can't see anything announced

It's prime ministers question time now, then later a press conference.

@TheKeatingFive

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown.

Is it?

For how long?

Have we accurately understood the costs of lockdowns to date, let alone further ones?

At what point will we address the actual problem (our health service is insufficient) rather than lockdown society every winter to avoid confronting this?

This 100%.

The way Kids have been treated throughout this has led from my experience to massive mental health problems in teens and pre teens, most of which is,only now, starting to become apparent, children off school with anxiety, suffering panic attacks, hallucinating, afraid to leave the house, worried about parents dying, constantly feeling unsafe. Speak to a GP now and they are seeing a lot of kids with mental health issues.

how many children have been stuck in an abusive home with no school contact (there’s been two murders by “parents” of children in Solihull alone in lockdown), education has suffered

. If the nhs thinks it’s having issues with ITU deaths it’s nothing to the pressure the already screwed mental health services are going to face.

The nhs is no longer fit for purpose, chronic shortages of staff/funding is why you can’t see your GP, get your kid to see a paediatrician, get mental health help, not covid.

@Benjispruce5

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown. No it’s not going away but to let it run rife over winter will mean chaos for A&E and other services. I don’t want a lockdown and I’m boosted but we can’t just keep on living as though it doesn’t exist.

We could, yes we would need proper triage if you turn up to a&e with a non a&e problem you would be sent home. Yes we would need a plan for withdrawal of care, but that's fairer to the person anyway. It would be rubbish to watch but I think Mother Nature has proved she going to get who she wants with COVID.

Seen it on twitter about omicron but it's very true...What do you call a coronavirus that causes mild symptoms.....a common cold!

@Benjispruce5

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown. No it’s not going away but to let it run rife over winter will mean chaos for A&E and other services. I don’t want a lockdown and I’m boosted but we can’t just keep on living as though it doesn’t exist.

So are we going to have strict lockdowns that less and less people will comply with every winter?

@Delatron

I think we need to remember ‘hospital admissions’ often include a large percentage of people who are in hospital for something else and just happened to test positive whilst there. So they would be in hospital anyway, therefore no extra pressure from them.

Yes and no. If catching COVID means that the patient suffers complications from the original illness or is slower to recover from something like an operation then their having COVID can slow down their discharge and therefore the nhs by "bed blocking" or moving wards from green to red.

True @Porcupineintherough to some extent. I just think the hospital admission figures for Covid are very misleading if many of those people are being admitted for something else.

Being admitted to hospital because of Covid means you are in a serious way. Going in with a broken leg and picking it up whilst there maybe even asymptomatically is a completely different situation.

It would help if we could see the breakdown. For example a Covid outbreak in a hospital would have a huge impact on ‘hospital admission’ figures. Yet many wouldn’t actually be suffering serious disease.

Right now we need data on serious illness and deaths so we can make proportionate judgements on what, if any measures are needed. Skewed figures are not helping this. And the way the media then report these figures.

Public Health Wales - more than 8,000 people caught in hospital and 2,000 died

www.google.com/amp/s/www.walesonline.co.uk/news/health/more-2000-patients-died-wales-22270848.amp

@Benjispruce5

So that hospitals can cope is a good enough reason for a short term strict lockdown. No it’s not going away but to let it run rife over winter will mean chaos for A&E and other services. I don’t want a lockdown and I’m boosted but we can’t just keep on living as though it doesn’t exist.

No it isn't.

@Waxonwaxoff0 so you're cool with people dying at home for lack of hospital beds? Or do you think no member of nhs staff should take leave over Christmas? Or what?

As of 7 December 6,441 people have died in Wales within 28 days of a positive Covid test. Of these 2,216 (34.4%) caught Covid in hospital.

So is there a press conference today then?

So are we going to have strict lockdowns that less and less people will comply with every winter?

Double whammy of non compliance in the home (households mingling - which is the riskiest behaviour I think for Covid spread?) but banning people from partaking in less risky behaviour in the pub / restaurants etc which actually makes the country money. Sounds fantastic.

[quote Porcupineintherough]@Waxonwaxoff0 so you're cool with people dying at home for lack of hospital beds? Or do you think no member of nhs staff should take leave over Christmas? Or what?[/quote]
I think the government should take responsibility and fund the NHS properly rather than expecting Joe Public to do their job for them.

@thewhatsit

So are we going to have strict lockdowns that less and less people will comply with every winter?

Double whammy of non compliance in the home (households mingling - which is the riskiest behaviour I think for Covid spread?) but banning people from partaking in less risky behaviour in the pub / restaurants etc which actually makes the country money. Sounds fantastic.

Yes this is a good point.

The priority order for a functioning society is not the same as the priority order for happy people, sadly.

@thewhatsit

So are we going to have strict lockdowns that less and less people will comply with every winter?

Double whammy of non compliance in the home (households mingling - which is the riskiest behaviour I think for Covid spread?) but banning people from partaking in less risky behaviour in the pub / restaurants etc which actually makes the country money. Sounds fantastic.

True. It’s not a good way to go.

I will take zero notice of any mandates not to see family.