@Firefliess
London on 3 December (specimen date) was 5,000. A week later (10th, almost complete) it's 10,000. If Omicron was 40% of those that would be 4,000. Back on the 3rd Omicron would have been around 350 of the 5000 daily cases (3 and a bit doubling times before the 10th). So the case rate growth in London looks more than high enough for Omicron to be doubling every 2 days to me. If it goes on doing that while Delta is roughly flat, case rates by 17th December specimen date will be around 50,000 per day, which is like nothing we've seen before. And most of those people will be contacting it over the next 2-3 days. Whether cases will be mild enough to enable hospitals to cope, it's hard to know. But I'm struggling to see how society will function with that many people off sick at once.
Just for absolute clarity your suggestion, based on that particular set of assumptions, is that cases by specimen date in London will look something like this?
I was a little confused by the spec date numbers quoted for 3rd and 10th,
Friday 3rd December spec date shows 5,867 cases in London. So if we were rounding to the nearest thousand perhaps 6,000 would be preferable to 5,000?
Friday 10th December currently at 9,048, albeit not yet fully complete, perhaps 5%-7% still to add. And likely to end up nearer 10,000 than 9,000, but quite possibly still short of 10,000; but from a rounding perspective more realistic.