Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

For example, we are more proactively testing asymptotic individuals with prior immunity when previously it was more weighted to symptomatic individuals without any prior immunity (vaccine or natural) and I think we are comparing the results of % hospitalised to see if it's more or less serious.

Can I ask what those on this thread think of the current policy to give everyone a third jab as quickly as possible. I can see the evidence that says the third jab raises immunity in the short term, but what about the long term?
If further boosters prove necessary, say 6 months after the previous one, wouldn’t it be better to be able to do them over a period of time rather than everyone needing them at the same time?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Also says Omicron appears to be 29% likely to result in hospital admission for adults

I assume this is a typo (missing a less ?) That would be utterly horrifying.

Sorry! Yes 29% less likely (29% of people needing hospital admission would indeed be terrifying )

@StarofRoyal

Can I ask what those on this thread think of the current policy to give everyone a third jab as quickly as possible. I can see the evidence that says the third jab raises immunity in the short term, but what about the long term? If further boosters prove necessary, say 6 months after the previous one, wouldn’t it be better to be able to do them over a period of time rather than everyone needing them at the same time?

The evidence on the benefits of boosters in reducing transmission looks really strong to me. 2x AZ vaccine gives almost no protection against catching covid (and so v likely next to none against onward transmission) But add a Pfizer booster and that's 70% of people who would otherwise have caught covid who now don't.

There is no solid data on how long boosters protect for, but it seems clear to me that we need them now, urgently, and can think about ongoing boosters becoming a regular thing in the longer term.

The protection you from 3 doses is more than you ever got from 2 - if they'd had longer to do vaccine trials I suspect they'd have recommended them to be a 3 dose regime from the start. But with all the rush, plus new variants appearing, there's been optimising the approach as we go.

@StarofRoyal exactly as firefliess says only to add that, Pfizer are presently saying boosters yearly, possibly less.

Variant specific vaccines may be required in the future due to the number of mutations now being seen, it's all an unknown. The booster data from Israel should soon indicate what's happening to immunity as I believe they were successfully rolling those out before most.

StarofRoyal
"Can I ask what those on this thread think of the current policy to give everyone a third jab as quickly as possible. I can see the evidence that says the third jab raises immunity in the short term, but what about the long term?
If further boosters prove necessary, say 6 months after the previous one, wouldn’t it be better to be able to do them over a period of time rather than everyone needing them at the same time?"

Agree. Plus I think it's risky to do the whole population in such a short period of time. If any adverse effects are identified it'll be too late to pull the plug.

As I understand it, it's not a third dose, it's half a dose.
Happy to be corrected.

I don't think 70% protection means 70% fewer people get Omicron does it? It means that if you are exposed to the virus you have a 70% chance of not getting affected.
However, on the main point, it seems to be really clear that a booster is essential to help prevent spread of Omicron in the short term . I don't think it has been around long enough to know yet. Even if immunity wanes again it doesn't mean 3-6 monthly boosters forever more. Groups are currently working on all sorts of different vaccines that work differently and are more likely to prevent infection longer term.

I think it means you are 70% less likely to get it than an unvaccinated person

And that person doesn’t always get it either

I think it means you are 70% less likely to get it than an unvaccinated and covid naïve person

But of course you can only catch it once (within a short time at least) so the covid naïve person likely catches pretty easily with a highly infectious virus. If cases remain high, 70% is really very little protection, especially against superspreader events when really the unvaccinated were almost guaranteed to get it. If the prevalence is 1% and you go a restaurant/pub every day, I can't see 70% being anywhere near enough, even if it doesn't wane.

Lots of cases in England today, but December 10th hasn't made it to 10,000 in London, and now looks like it won't. 12th will, but still not the 15,000 that omicron doubling in 1.7 day prediction.

So is this omicron moving outside of London, need to see boys graphs.

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

As I understand it, it's not a third dose, it's half a dose. Happy to be corrected.

It's a half dose if it's Moderna, it's a full dose if it's Pfizer. (Unless you need a third dose and not a booster because you fall into the "makes antibodies badly" group, in which case you get a full of either.)

I’ll knock something out later @sirfredfredgeorge

Have avoided a slurp of the cooking wine that’s gone in the beef bourguignon.

Health metric wise and using a seven day average admissions up 32% in London compared a week ago; North West up 13%; East up 9.5%; in contrast North East and Yorks and South East increase less than 2%.

Hospitalisations again with seven day average London up 14%, East 11%; south east 5%, ditto Midlands; North West 4%, South West 3%, North East and Yorks 6% decrease.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think it means you are 70% less likely to get it than an unvaccinated and covid naïve person

But of course you can only catch it once (within a short time at least) so the covid naïve person likely catches pretty easily with a highly infectious virus. If cases remain high, 70% is really very little protection, especially against superspreader events when really the unvaccinated were almost guaranteed to get it. If the prevalence is 1% and you go a restaurant/pub every day, I can't see 70% being anywhere near enough, even if it doesn't wane.

Agreed.

With 70% protection you are 3x more likely to catch it than when we had 90% protection.

An un-vaxxed person was 10x more likely to catch it then.

I'm not sure Omicron gives a shit about immunity from Delta infection, and any other variant is probably too old to be useful. We need those fresh surging antibodies.

And it's about to be way more prevalent than it has ever been.

Soon it will be everywhere indoors that we go.

Work, school, pantomime, pub, shop, sister in law's house on Christmas Day, everywhere.

Previously our best protection was that it wasn't everywhere.

I'm not sure Omicron gives a shit about immunity from Delta infection

I'm pretty sure Gauteng disagrees, indeed I think London disagrees too, the cases simply aren't high enough given none of the under 40's in London are boosted and the stats that vaccine+infection is more successful at preventing infection than vaccine+booster also indicates it.

(all assuming omicron really is more infectious, if it's not more infectious then yes delta immunity could be zero)

The fact that cases in children are still flat (with schools still open) while numbers for young adults are going through the roof might suggest that recent Delta infections offer some sort of protection.

@NightmareLoon Thanks for that. I thought we'd had half a Pfizer as a booster (we'd had 2xAZ originally)...I wonder if when we'll get a 2nd Pfizer?...

boys Oh bugger it go on, have a slurp you deserve it

@wintertravel1980

The fact that cases in children are still flat (with schools still open) while numbers for young adults are going through the roof might suggest that recent Delta infections offer some sort of protection.

This seems key doesn’t?

Especially as omicron is at the prevalence it is

@wintertravel1980

The fact that cases in children are still flat (with schools still open) while numbers for young adults are going through the roof might suggest that recent Delta infections offer some sort of protection.

That I am sure follows Denmark and South Africa that age range being the driver.

London seems to be consistently at 10k so hopefully previous infection and vaccines holds up.

Im in outer london and there are very few households I know that havent had a least one case - around here it has been everywhere for awhile

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not sure Omicron gives a shit about immunity from Delta infection

I'm pretty sure Gauteng disagrees, indeed I think London disagrees too, the cases simply aren't high enough given none of the under 40's in London are boosted and the stats that vaccine+infection is more successful at preventing infection than vaccine+booster also indicates it.

Well maybe.

But it's hard to tell now that detected cases are so decoupled from infections.

But it's hard to tell now that detected cases are so decoupled from infections

I've seen no data suggesting that? What's it based on?

In theory 70% protection would mean 70% less likely to catch it than someone who's never had either covid or a vaccine. But if it's calculated using real world data (as I think that figure from South Africa was) then it's comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated people, many of whom will have had covid (and quite possibly more of the unvaccinated having had it than the vaccinated) Some studies do attempt to control for things like age and previous infection but not all do. If it's just a simple comparison between vaccinated and unvaccinated then it's likely to be understating how effective the vaccine is if you were able to compare outcomes for vaccinated Vs never-had-covid unvaccinated people (who I think are a bit thin on the ground in South Africa, or possibly hermits, or some sort of super-humans with natural immunity....!)

The fact that cases in children are still flat (with schools still open) while numbers for young adults are going through the roof might suggest that recent Delta infections offer some sort of protection.

Oh I'm so sorry but could someone help me understand this ? Does it imply that school children have previously had delta but young adults haven't? Why would that be ?

@sirfredfredgeorge

But it's hard to tell now that detected cases are so decoupled from infections

I've seen no data suggesting that? What's it based on?

Positivity rates are an indicator.

With Delta about 40-50% of infections were detected.

With omicron it seems to be a lot less.

Detected cases hadn't really risen ten days or so ago.

But hospital admissions are rising indicating that infections were.