Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Still doesn't confirm whether Omicron was the reason for the admission though.

Hello, I'm new to the thread and not sure if I can just jump in, but I saw the Sajid Javid stated in the House of Commons today that COVID cases are at about 200,000 a day in the UK. This seems quite different from the published numbers.

Do any of you know where he's got these numbers from? Are they an extrapolation based on testing picking up around 25-30% of cases, or has there been a massive increase in positive test results over the past day or so?

Screenshot and link.

Relevant post is time stamped 16:17

Christina Pagel is questioning this figure on Twitter too.

Re: 200,000 infections - assume it is a back of the envelope estimate.

Previously most modellers believed reported cases picked up about 50% of actual infections.

The number reported today (54,000 cases) relates to people infected 4-7 days ago (3-5 days incubation period - may be shorter for Omicron, 1-2 days to get test results - may be longer if there is pressure on the system).

If we’d had roughly 110k infections 4-7 days ago, it is not entirely ridiculous that we may be closer to 200k today (depending on percentage of Omicron vs Delta).

Sajid Javid's statement is really at odds to what the daily figures are showing and the government's message to continue with social plans etc. If it really is going to get that bad in just a few weeks should they not be a little more honest wrt what vaccine protection people have. Most teens have had 1 vaccine so far (many have had none). Does that mean they have very little protection against this variant?

Thanks @JanglyBeads @wintertravel1980 @mrshoho

That makes sense that it's a rough estimate based on accelerating transmission.

I have to agree with that the government messaging is really confusing. It seems mad to encourage parties if the strain on the NHS is as bad as they're suggesting. They can't have it both ways.

I'm in France, and case rates are high here too but there's no sign of further restrictions for the moment and far less talk about COVID. Like the UK a couple of weeks ago they're betting the farm on booster vaccines and know that any restrictions over Christmas will not be followed. They don't really publish figures for Omicron so I don't know whether they're just hoping for the best or if spread is much more limited here.

Previously most modellers believed reported cases picked up about 50% of actual infections

I thought, only a few days ago, Javid said the rates were twenty times what the confirmed figures suggest?

Looking at spec dates for Monday 6th to those reported today for yesterday; and comparing with the same reporting point at this time last week in England.

Overall up 7.2%, an additional 18.000 or so cases. 18047 to be precise.

18046 of those in London leaving a net addition of one case across the rest of England.

London up close to 50%.

Thereafter:

North West up 7.2%, +1891 cases

East up 5.8%, +1786 cases

North East up 3.7% + 337 cases

South East marginally up 0.2% +102 cases.

Then

East Midlands down 2.4%, -530 cases

Yorks and Humber down 3.8%, -694 cases

West Midlands down 4.4%, -1016 cases

South West down 6.4%, -1875 cases.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

Previously most modellers believed reported cases picked up about 50% of actual infections

I thought, only a few days ago, Javid said the rates were twenty times what the confirmed figures suggest?

Wasn’t that omicron infections were 20 times those detected - which allowed for all the labs who can’t test for SGTF?

Every time a govt minister, inc Boris, opens their mouth I think they’re thinking of how backbenchers and big business will react.

Remember over 20% of cases get the "result" the same day, no lag there, not much evidence that even London is doubling faster than 10 days, and the rest of England is declining/stable. Would have to be a step change to get to 100,000 reported by Friday.

Going in closer to London, if Omicron did have an Rt of 5, then we should see significant imbalances within London MSOAs, just as we do between London and the rest of the country, those with the most Omicron would be accelerating much faster than MSOAs that had little, however even here, there's little here, Southwark is high, but still much less than Rt 1.5 doubling more than 8 days, and slowing not accelerating over the most recent days.

I would really like to see some data that matches the alarming Omicron models we were promised.

As far as the updated Sanger data goes, and bearing in mind the detailed data only goes up to the week to 4th December.

From the raw data Omicron 1.1% of sequenced tests in England, appearing in 143 council areas. At the same point Delta was also 1.1%. Delta moved to 3.7% in the following week, and given the overall numbers being tweeted out by the UKHSE Omicron will comfortably exceed that in the week to 11th December, but whether it will make it much into double figures remains to be seen.

40% of the total omicron sequenced for that week in London; 0% in NE, both West Mids and Yorks Humber less than 2%. To be clear that is not 40% of cases in London were omicron, 3.6% inner London and 2.8% outer London.

Very early days and the next set of weekly figures will get a much better perspective. However I thought it worth sharing.

As far as the updated Sanger data goes, and bearing in mind the detailed data only goes up to the week to 4th December.

From the raw data Omicron 1.1% of sequenced tests in England, appearing in 143 council areas. At the same point Delta was also 1.1%. Delta moved to 3.7% in the following week, and given the overall numbers being tweeted out by the UKHSE Omicron will comfortably exceed that in the week to 11th December, but whether it will make it much into double figures remains to be seen.

40% of the total omicron sequenced for that week in London; 0% in NE, both West Mids and Yorks Humber less than 2%. To be clear that is not 40% of cases in London were omicron, 3.6% inner London and 2.8% outer London.

Very early days and the next set of weekly figures will get a much better perspective. However I thought it worth sharing.

No idea why, or how, that got posted twice.

boys have you been on the trifle again?

I'm wondering if trifle has good prophylactic properties against Omicron!

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

boys have you been on the trifle again?

Bailey’s

Oi pussycat, but frightened of your username!!

Piggy OMG, sorry! I really promise I won't eat you.

boys We're opening a bottle with the quizzes on BBC2 later.

Phew, that's a relief...

@sirfredfredgeorge

Going in closer to London, if Omicron did have an Rt of 5, then we should see significant imbalances within London MSOAs, just as we do between London and the rest of the country, those with the most Omicron would be accelerating much faster than MSOAs that had little, however even here, there's little here, Southwark is high, but still much less than Rt 1.5 doubling more than 8 days, and slowing not accelerating over the most recent days.

I would really like to see some data that matches the alarming Omicron models we were promised.

I think that depends how people are mixing at present. During lockdowns when only schools were open most people stayed close to home and we saw a lot of regional variations. In the last six months, however, we've seen less variation between areas. That suggests to me that people are mixing over wider areas. Case rates in London are particularly driven by the 20 somethings at present, an age group particularly likely to be socialising with friends from all over the place. I don't think we can conclude that it can't be Omicron causing the steep growth in London just because it's happening all over.

I agree that it doesn't quite look like two day doubling overall though - 8% of covid cases in England on 8 December were s gene dropout - so about 3,500 cases. If that had got to 14,000 by today, we'd expect the daily total to be a bit higher than it is, unless there's been quite a big downturn in Delta. (Possible - boosters, growing immunity from past infection, wfh, publicity about Omicron all possible drivers, but seems a stretch)

Hi, new to this thread. Sorry if this has been asked/answered before, but given the latest data suggest that 2 doses of any vaccine have little to no effect on catching the virus, how is 2 doses holding up against disease severity?

I can't seem to get my booster booked until January and I'll be honest, I'm nervous.

I agree that it doesn't quite look like two day doubling overall though

This thread explains how it is currently 1.7. However he is often bleak so happy for it to be disputed.

mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1470434127031803904

Denmark is now experiencing a doubling of omicron cases every 1.6 days or every 40 hours .
www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2021/omikron-tager-over

UK is thought to be following the same trajectory.

I'm not surprised they are willing to move heaven and earth to get jabs in arms.