Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/



Denmark

Trying again

Yes Denmark (who sequence a lot too) have about 20% omicron, they have similar restrictions to Scotland probably less on balance (no actual requirement to work from home, just asked and their coronapass is open to recovered) and haven't shortened their booster less than 6 months.

Growing way faster than London too, although of course they hadn't got delta down to an R of ~1, but still have an R below 1.3 so still little evidence for omicron's Rt being 5 or whatever the UK models had it.

@Marsha I don't think known is quite the word, but the hypothesis I've heard for why booster is somewhat effective is as you say purely the sheer number of antibodies circulating after a vaccine and not a more specific response generated.

@sirfredfredgeorge thanks for the additional information.

Regarding boosters. That was also my understanding @MarshaBradyo that a high number of circulating antibodies is required. I thought, although I may have misunderstood, this is related to the higher transmissibility and replication of newer variants. Without significant circulating ab's the immune system cannot respond fast enough. Problem is how long do those ab's stay high with a boost and do they wane as fast as 1 and 2.

Does this article help re boosters and immunity? Basically what you are all saying

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/what-makes-boosters-more-effective-than-the-first-two-covid-jabs

That’s a good article, thanks

Ontopofthesunset - thank you for that ,yes helped me a lot .Mainly to recognise that there's a lot to it and that the more you know /think you know ,the more you realise there is to learn .

It's all so fascinating ( in a purely theoretical way! )

Ok cool glad I remembered close to it

Didn’t want to mislead

I find it very interesting but also listening to science behind it makes me feel calmer (always has)

LBC is really good at letting people answer - looking at you R4

@AnyFucker

I would also like to be educated on what the correct definitive spelling of the new variant is 🤔

omicron

There are two 'o's in the greek alphabet: little o - o micron, and big o - o mega; they are not like upper case and lower case o, as they represent a different sound. Omega turns up in Christmas carols.

Strictly speaking, as we talk about microns (1/1,000,000 of a metre), pronouncing them mycrons, we should call the variant 'o-mycron'. But it's turned into a thing of its own, generally called omi-cron.

There are two 'o's in the greek alphabet: little o - o micron, and big o - o mega; they are not like upper case and lower case o, as they represent a different sound. Omega turns up in Christmas carols.

Omicron is a short 'o' sound as in 'pot'
Omega is a long 'o' sound as in 'boat'.

Omega is the last letter of the Greek alphabet... Hence references to Alpha and Omega in carols etc. meaning the first and the last.

Thanks guys 👍

At least one death in UK with Omicron variant. BBC Breaking news.

And UKHSA says ten hospitalisations - not found whilst being treated for other things.

It is expected

I still think it’s tbc on virulence

Yes it will be expected.

Didn't Javid says there's 10,000 plus cases a day? Or active cases and that was a few days ago now, so likely loads more. Of course there's going to be hospitalisations, it shouldn't be a surprise.

Might be expected to you. Seems to be the main whataboutery on Twitter and other threads!

I am sure it was on another thread that Denmark (who sequence a lot) are looking at the moment around the 1% rate for hospitalisations (down from 9% from original to 2-2.5% for Alpha and Delta).

Delta was more infectious and deadly/causing severe disease than Alpha but the vaccines worked with it.

Omicron I think is showing to be milder (certainly than Delta) but less vaccine working on it and far more infectious.

How can it be less virulent though, it is the same core virus but more transmissible. It was only identified 3 wks ago, not even. How long do we need to gauge its virulence? Will it be before we all have been exposed? Probably not is my guess

I'm not sure there's any evidence that Omicron causes less severe disease in naïve individuals than any other variant.

Being considerably better at evading existing immunity (both vaccine and infection) means that it infects more people who are not covid naïve, and hence makes the hospitalisation rate look better.

I think it's partly wishful thinking based on examples of viruses that did mutate and become more transmissible but less severe - Spanish flu is often cited as an example. This completely ignores the uncomfortable issue that Covid 19 has already mutated to become more transmissible but remained just as severe (Alpha, Delta).

Less than 10% up, and the first time over 10,000 LFD positives in England since the peak of the first "back to school" wave in secondary schools, more testing, or more covid?

Cases in London getting lose to complete for 8th/9th and look to only have a small growth 1% per day over 8/9/10th maybe going to be a bit hgher on the 11th. But I'll say again, there's no evidence in the increase of a doubling time of 2 days of the percentage of cases that are Omicron - Either London doesn't have as much omicron as we were told, omicron does not double at anything like 2 days in London, or we're missing masses of cases in London.

Numbers still up, but nothing like the "alarming" rates we were "promised".

I thought we were waiting on data re virulence?

Rather than wishful thinking etc

It was always something to be determined wasn’t it?

I see the dashboard is struggling with its healthcare metrics today. 379, then 34 and 43 for England hospital admissions for 9th, 10th, 11th strike me as............highly unlikely to be reflective of reality.

Hospitalisation figures look realistic for 13th, with biggest growth in London, but the 95% or so reduction for 11th and 12th suggest some sort of even rudimentary data quality checks might be something that could perhaps be considered by those running the dashboard.

Nothing to explain the obvious issues at time of posting in the dasboard’s what’s new section.

I also thought variants could differ due to mutations hence slightly more virulent for one but also greater mutations here which could lead to different outcome?

@JanglyBeads

And UKHSA says ten hospitalisations - not found whilst being treated for other things.

UKHSA stated that the ten individuals hospitalised were diagnosed on or before admission.

mobile.twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470393604136968192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet