Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

15-17* rather

Children were included in the 43,000 (or more?) falsely reported tests. So that current rise is steeper than it should have been.

[quote Bizawit]@lonelyplanet it’s always bad news in your eyes isn’t it? 🙄

Yes that is a limitation in the data (I presume this is how the data is being published?), but what is primarily being compared is the ratio from July compared to now. The difference in change in case to hospitalisation ratio looks way too large to be explained by your suggestion alone. Unless almost all hospitalisations are in 15-19 yr olds in which case, granted, it wouldn’t be a meaningful comparison.[/quote]
No need to be rude though it’s hardly the first time you have been

@alreadytaken

Children were included in the 43,000 (or more?) falsely reported tests. So that current rise is steeper than it should have been.

Steeper yes, but that wouldn’t change the point: which is the difference in case to hospitalisation ratio. I think the lab issue started sometime in early Sept? Doesn’t date back to July..

The lab issue makes the point slightly stronger. Cases (denominator) might be undercounted . Hospitalisations (numerator) are not since hospital patients get tested again (by NHS). The ratio of hospitalisations to cases might therefore be lower but not higher.

"Alternatively, "freshers flu" has suppressed Covid, which is a circulating theory"

Genuine question. I've heard a lot about this idea that other viruses out compete Covid but if that was the case how was Covid able to spread in the first place? In the UK it hit in winter, a normal winter with the usual winter bugs around but Covid spread anyway. Can someone explain?

There is a claim on another thread that I am following that there have been no child deaths from Covid. Can someone link me to the definitive current information on this for the uk?

Rhinovirus has been shown to prevent covid from easily taking hold.
www.bbc.com/news/health-56483445.amp
"triggering an immune response inside the infected cells, which blocked the ability of Sars-CoV-2 to make copies of itself".
Flu usually infects on its own, but there was even higher mortality with Influenza A plus covid last winter. Fewer when Influenza B, no idea how that works.

You could theorise that a covid mutation is letting it coexist along with rhinovirus, but then it gives milder symptoms. That's asking for two things though, whereas the viral load differenced supported by research.

@cantkeepawayforever

There is a claim on another thread that I am following that there have been no child deaths from Covid. Can someone link me to the definitive current information on this for the uk?

There have been child deaths. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_age_and_sex

BMA statement
twitter.com/andrewgregory/status/1450908104296648705?s=21

Folk in (west) London now receiving texts suggesting they redo PCRs

twitter.com/kit_yates_maths/status/1451089639125749765?s=21

Just on child stats , I did also read with great feelings of sadness the other day that just under 9000 children have been orphaned. Will try to find source . That's an overlooked factor and terribly tragic.

I certainly do know of two children (siblings) in my school.

Here we are : this is an estimate from July:-

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-has-caused-hidden-pandemic-of-orphanhood-says-global-study

@Bizwit First how do you know when the lab issue started? Or that it is confined to one lab?

Second that is a terrible graph as it relates to a previous level of testing so impossible to see what size numbers are being talked about. Hospitalisations in children are, thankfully, rare - most get sent home with advice to the parents. In total it's just over 10,000 child admissions in England to date. Look at the area under the graph - seems likely you have testing errors initially, retests in the data now and perhaps a real difference in hospitalisations now or perhaps a minor fluctuation caused by small numbers.

@cantkeepawayforever

There is a claim on another thread that I am following that there have been no child deaths from Covid. Can someone link me to the definitive current information on this for the uk?

I mean that is plainly nonsense. How can people propagate these myths??

[quote alreadytaken]@Bizwit First how do you know when the lab issue started? Or that it is confined to one lab?

Second that is a terrible graph as it relates to a previous level of testing so impossible to see what size numbers are being talked about. Hospitalisations in children are, thankfully, rare - most get sent home with advice to the parents. In total it's just over 10,000 child admissions in England to date. Look at the area under the graph - seems likely you have testing errors initially, retests in the data now and perhaps a real difference in hospitalisations now or perhaps a minor fluctuation caused by small numbers.[/quote]
How do I know? Well I suppose I don’t , but I’m going but what PHE have said! As far as they have said the issue is in one lab, which I believe opened in September. In any case I don’t think the lab issue undermines the point, for reasons winter set out above.

Sorry but I’m not sure I understand your second point? If you read the thread you will see that the author of the tweet clarified that testing rates have not substantially changed from July if that’s what you mean?

What’s the latest figure please from exposure to the virus (close contact) to development of symptoms . I’ve read both 48 hrs and 10 days. My parents are in their 80s and have had close contact with a positive case. One of my parents has received the booster which is reassuring but they are really frightened by it

@Notmulan

What’s the latest figure please from exposure to the virus (close contact) to development of symptoms . I’ve read both 48 hrs and 10 days. My parents are in their 80s and have had close contact with a positive case. One of my parents has received the booster which is reassuring but they are really frightened by it

Somewhat unknown, but I believe the average length of incubation is estimated to be 4-5 days?

Sorry to hear your parents are so worried . Hopefully the vaccines will have done their job and they won’t have caught it (or at worst a mild case). Wishing them all the best!

@Notmulan

What’s the latest figure please from exposure to the virus (close contact) to development of symptoms . I’ve read both 48 hrs and 10 days. My parents are in their 80s and have had close contact with a positive case. One of my parents has received the booster which is reassuring but they are really frightened by it

3 days to LFT positive and 4 until symptoms start.

But yes, of course the range could be 2-18 days.

Christ, massive jump in Zoe today. :/ up to almost 83,000 daily cases.

Still down in my locality though.

Thank you @bizawit and @mrex I think 3 to 4 days is the message I’ll give them but I’ll keep praying till day 18. They’ve been relatively relaxed through the whole covid period as I think they’ve been able to keep the risk low etc but had some teenage children to stay with them for a weekend whilst their parents were away and they developed symptoms whilst staying so think it just feels suddenly too close for them.

A local club that I'm a member of had a weekend away last weekend. 37 of them went to dinner on Saturday. One of them tested (LFT) positive on Sunday afternoon (having tested negative on Saturday pm). Since Tuesday 16 more have tested positive and a few are still awaiting PCR results.

@Stilltalkstotrees

A local club that I'm a member of had a weekend away last weekend. 37 of them went to dinner on Saturday. One of them tested (LFT) positive on Sunday afternoon (having tested negative on Saturday pm). Since Tuesday 16 more have tested positive and a few are still awaiting PCR results.

20 have now tested positive. A lot of them didn't know about the positive LFT case until Monday pm so we're blissfully unaware that they might have been infecting their families & colleagues.

Anecdotal but whereas last year we heard lots of stories of some household members contracting covid and others not, this recent strain seems to leave no man standing. Have the genome sequencing labs released anything since they announced delta?