Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Head of the NHS Confederation and others call for Plan B now
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/implement-plan-b-winter-measures-now-or-risk-nhs-crisis-johnson-warned

Shocking graphs on the increase in rates for 10-14 year olds in SW.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1450517959500238853

That is a) scary and b) totally in line with our daily experience.

[quote lonelyplanet]Shocking graphs on the increase in rates for 10-14 year olds in SW.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1450517959500238853[/quote]
It’s really not. Anyone could’ve told you that, it’ll be in the next generation soon enough, it’s the adults getting sick now. The PCR issue has caused untold damage. You only realise it if you are down here.

[quote JanglyBeads]Head of the NHS Confederation and others call for Plan B now
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/implement-plan-b-winter-measures-now-or-risk-nhs-crisis-johnson-warned[/quote]
🙄😭

Do we think plan b is enough

Also are we sure just 1 lab was issue as apparently same company run other labs.

We almost blind on data and will take weeks to catch up.

Shame they can't offer widespread anti body tests.

Some pretty worrying graphs on twitter over the new delta varient.
Is it something we concerned about.
Not sure if more transmissible or not

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/fears-grow-in-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-variant

Andrew Pollard on R4 hospitalisation rates hugely affected by higher positive rates - same as deaths

Numbers in community affects data

People in hospital - shorter period, frail and older

Biggest issue unvaccinated - I wonder what proportion have had it and yet to go

[quote lonelyplanet]Shocking graphs on the increase in rates for 10-14 year olds in SW.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1450517959500238853[/quote]
I am intrigued by this. Of course it is very obvious that rates in schools are horrific. However, the university seems pretty untouched. All DD's friends, seminar, lecture mates, block etc are present, no known Covid. They have all had "freshers flu" though.

Musings:

So, do we conclude that as they are the most current vaccinees, and also perhaps have additionally have covid previously, they have high immunity. Alternatively, "freshers flu" has suppressed Covid, which is a circulating theory.

Then when 10-14's (12-16's) get vaccinated, plus they possibly also have previously had Covid, or certainly been exposed, and additionally 50+ all get boosters, by January (?), population immunity should be very high?

10-14s looking back to the end August / Start September. 7 day rolling rates. Most recent is the seven days to 14th October; first is period ending 2nd Sep.

Peak still Kettering at c. 6,000 per 100,000 - a couple of weeks back.

Sorting by the 10-14 rate in the most recent week.

20 Councils with the highest rates.

Rutland currently highest.

The first column shows the maximum seven day rate for each council since 2nd Sep; the second the current rank based on 14th October figure, and the final two columns the percentage increase from 14th Oct as compared to 7th and how that percentage ranks. The middle columns should be self-explanatory - all rates per 100,000.

then the next three sets, with some in these tables starting to show a downward trajectory

the next table, councils ranked 81 to 100, finally includes Kettering

As the first column shows Kettering peaked at 6304 cases per 100,000 for the 10-14 age group, and is now at, a still shocking in the wider scheme of things, 2418 per 100,000. A near 30% drop as compared with a week earlier, and less than half its peak level.

Perhaps more troubling this is the Councils whose rates have at least doubled in the 10-14s since last week.

Tewkesbury with a 7 fold increase.

then those between 60% and 99% increase; followed by those with at least a 45% increase

trying to end on a positive those with the biggest week on week percentage reduction in 10-14 rate

Interesting and encouraging thread on kids’ hospital admissions.

twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1450484836771188738?s=21

Any ideas what will be said at tonight’s press conference? BBC news channel has a 5pm program slot for it.

Please could I ask a question?

It's if data's available to say how many "in hospital with Covid" were admitted because of it, and how many went in because of something else and it was found through the usual testing?

[quote Bizawit]Interesting and encouraging thread on kids’ hospital admissions.

twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1450484836771188738?s=21[/quote]
Surely it's just the logical explanation of viral load. Adults have a higher viral load, so adults infecting children gave a higher proportion who became extremely unwell. Now most adults are vaccinated, they have lower viral load and when they or another child infects the child, the child is less likely to have a severe infection. Same way Delta led to more severe infections, because the viral load is higher.

@MRex oh that’s interesting. Could be!

[quote Bizawit]@MRex oh that’s interesting. Could be![/quote]
Actually I think that’s a more convincing explanation that the ones the Dr was suggesting tbh.

[quote Bizawit]Interesting and encouraging thread on kids’ hospital admissions.

twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1450484836771188738?s=21[/quote]
But the two lines on his graphs are not comparable. The hospitalisations line is showing 6 to 17 year olds which include the vaccinated 16 to 17 year old group. The cases are for 5 to 14 year olds which doesn't include the vaccinated teenagers who have had lower case rates. You might also note on his graphs that the hospitalisation rates in children is currently as high now as it was in the peak in January.

Thread on AY.4.2
Left map is now right map mid July

mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1450408485829718039

@lonelyplanet it’s always bad news in your eyes isn’t it? 🙄

Yes that is a limitation in the data (I presume this is how the data is being published?), but what is primarily being compared is the ratio from July compared to now. The difference in change in case to hospitalisation ratio looks way too large to be explained by your suggestion alone. Unless almost all hospitalisations are in 15-19 yr olds in which case, granted, it wouldn’t be a meaningful comparison.