Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

overall hospitalisations for England

first four regions again

and the other 3

Which means that immunity played a part - why wouldn’t the same happen here?

The shape of the curve depends on how many cases you're detecting if you are relying on immunity. If you're detecting a low percentage of cases, it's a spike with a very rapid drop off, but if you're detecting a high proportion of cases, and those cases isolate, then it's a sustained high level of cases for a long period of time.

Thanks Boys. Looks promising going by the NW figures.

@MarshaBradyo

I do t think that sharp decrease in Scotland is due to any change in mitigations.

They weren’t enough to cause that sharp drop. Even a full lockdown means a curve takes ages to decline.

Which means that immunity played a part - why wouldn’t the same happen here?

I remember Tim Spector saying along the lines that some of it could be behavioural. When people see high numbers they start taking precautions then cases decrease as a result. I noticed in Scotland when cases were sky-high at 7k (higher than they'd ever been) that the sanitisers came back out, windows were open etc. I even saw some young kids wearing masks in shops which is unusual normally. People were spooked for a week or so.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/18/uk-lab-immensa-false-negative-covid-tests-not-fully-accredited

This is shocking.

This is also from the Guardian briefing section
"Covid situation in UK 'concerning', says government expert
Following on from those latest statistics, epidemiologist and government adviser Professor Andrew Hayward said the current situation in the UK was “concerning” and there was “huge potential for the NHS to come under a lot of pressure” this winter.

Prof Hayward, a member of the Sage scientific advisory panel, told BBC Radio 4’s World At One:

I think it’s concerning that we’ve got very high rates of infection and higher rates of hospitalisation and mortality than many of our European counterparts.

He said waning immunity is “probably part of” the reason infections are currently high, adding there is “some evidence” protection against infection is beginning to wear off and “probably some evidence” protection against severe disease is waning to a lesser extent."

Yes that is what John Burn Murdoch’s tweets which I posted yesterday concluded too.

Containsnuts I agree re behavioural but it’s quite sharp. I remember Vallance talking about 3 days on the up side equalling 3 weeks on down.

If you look at NZ a lockdown isn’t causing a decrease.

So for delta to sharply decrease like that perhaps the virus can’t spread as much due to high immunity.

So when we hit that place we’ll be the same,

I’m genuinely wondering if it will happen, I’m interested if others think so too or not.

Anyone who thinks the NHS is "coping" is clearly not on a waiting list and hasnt tried to get into a&e recently. Backed up ambulances and long waiting times in a&e are happening around the country - even in London. I'm glad I dont currently need health care!

Vaccination works best in the young. Antibodies may drop off but T cells come into play. I wish people would stop ignoring this - vaccinated children should have good T cell response to any further covid exposure. Doesnt work as well for the old but even one vaccine should provide more than 30% protection for children. One vaccine plus natural infection will be even better.

I'm still wearing a mask indoors and anyone who wants the NHS to be there for them if they need it would be wise to do the same. You may not be high risk, the people you spread covid to may be. I've also ordered nasal sprays that may be helpful for high risk situations.

twitter.com/StroudCorona/status/1449502993972350978?t=TaN94_k9SlZd9la5UVDjHw&s=19
Interesting graph here showing effect of test errors in Gloucestershire.

@MarshaBradyo

Containsnuts I agree re behavioural but it’s quite sharp. I remember Vallance talking about 3 days on the up side equalling 3 weeks on down.

If you look at NZ a lockdown isn’t causing a decrease.

So for delta to sharply decrease like that perhaps the virus can’t spread as much due to high immunity.

So when we hit that place we’ll be the same,

I’m genuinely wondering if it will happen, I’m interested if others think so too or not.

I suspect it will happen...eventually. Scotland, Isreal and the US, for example, had massive surges but it didn't go on climbing indefinitely. Cases did come down. Boosters, immunity, mitigations I'm sure all contribute in their way. The concern remains about the huge numbers of people infected during the process. Sky high levels for a few weeks in Scotland came with real consequences that shouldn't be downplayed. Non urgent treatments were cancelled, kids missed school, staff absence in schools, prisons and nursing homes caused real problems.

Are we seeing the effect of the 40,000 false negatives go through at whatever r rate Delta is?

Surely once those have been transmitted and the resultant infections are isolated the number of cases should come down?

I doubt it. Many of those people will be beyond point of infection. I'd bet quite a few won't test now as won't want to risk a positive PCR for an old infection when the know they had symptoms more than 10 days ago. What we might see is the result of all those positive cases being out and about in the community and spreading...

Oh, sorry ,t hat's what you said..misunderstood.

What we might see is the result of all those positive cases being out and about in the community and spreading

Yes, this is what I meant

Apologies if this has already been posted but can someone point me in the direction of the figures / graphs for seven day average by specimen date? Thanks.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Apologies if this has already been posted but can someone point me in the direction of the figures / graphs for seven day average by specimen date? Thanks.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases#card-recent7-dayycaseratessbyspecimenn_date

Sky high levels for a few weeks in Scotland came with real consequences that shouldn't be downplayed. Non urgent treatments were cancelled, kids missed school, staff absence in schools, prisons and nursing homes caused real problems.

We’ve had ten days off school due to Covid infection, so that kind of thing has happened here, but I’m fine with that over SD isolation etc disruption

One good thing for Scotland is it’s going into winter having had the peak already.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Apologies if this has already been posted but can someone point me in the direction of the figures / graphs for seven day average by specimen date? Thanks.

See the link already posted above.

Plus from around page 32/33 of the thread tables showing rates for past six weeks for every region and council in England. They are of course a further day behind now

Re impact of the lab error - is this helpful? From the ONS up to 10th October. I'm no expert but it seems to show hospital admissions & deaths in the SE per 100,000 faily average but did show a slight increase on the previous week with Yorkshire and The Humber the only region doing worse. Will be interesting to track this over the coming weeks.

SW, I mean

@MarshaBradyo I'm hoping we will be over ours by mid Nov.

No idea if that's realistic.

Next time anyone tells me how we should privatise the NHS because the private sector is so much more efficient I'm going to keep repeating over 40,000 incorrect covid tests. These private labs have been a problem from the start, this is just too bad an error to be hidden. Now it seemsin has not even been acredited, just allowed to self certify.

As for the impact on the South West the impact will continue to be felt for months and depends on how many people ignored the false result and isolated anyway. ONS shows a pretty steep rise in the South West after its Boardmasters peak had dropped out www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/15october2021#sub-national-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19

and www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/24september2021#sub-national-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-who-had-covid-19