Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Agree @alreadytaken.

I mean , it will definitely have to come up in the public enquiry, won't it.

I am wondering whether anyone will ever sue...

I don't understand why people are excited about Scotland's data. With a 5.5m population and 2,500 cases per day, that's the equivalent of ~31,000 in the UK daily. Not far from the case levels we've seen anyway, subject to ups and downs plus the lab issue. Cases go up and come down based on the virus having opportunities, they won't be truly static nor zero.

@MRex

I don't understand why people are excited about Scotland's data. With a 5.5m population and 2,500 cases per day, that's the equivalent of ~31,000 in the UK daily. Not far from the case levels we've seen anyway, subject to ups and downs plus the lab issue. Cases go up and come down based on the virus having opportunities, they won't be truly static nor zero.

Do you mean my posts?

‘Excited’ is a bit much,

But yes I think a peak and sharp decrease would be good here too

Restrictions have generally created waves like that - so what is doing it?

Currently case rate in Scotland is roughly the same as for the first week of January 2021.
The peak at the start of September was interesting in its rapid decrease. Behavioural change and good weather played a part, I think. I'm not convinced that Scotland has caught up with natural immunity levels in other parts of the UK.
The October holidays will help currently, but I'm expecting cases it start increasing, albeit, slowly.

Half term for those schools who have two weeks, have started this week round our way. It will be interesting to see what the numbers do.

Here’s a partial answer as to why we’ve had no SAGE minutes for months … there’s been very few meetings!

inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-government-sage-scientists-meeting-just-once-month-despite-soaring-cases-and-deaths-1257685

Gosh, I am quite shocked by that. Is it gov with fingers in ears going lalalalala?

I think you can pretty much summise the sitting government's attitude when you see packed commons with the opposition all in masks and the ruling party all mask- free tbh.

Very interesting graph showing cases as higher in the least deprived areas than in the most deprived, probably a combination of the later having immunity from high previous infection waves plus being less likely to test because of potential loss of earnings etc:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1450489687076900871?s=21

Yes piggy

plus being less likely to test because of potential loss of earnings

You probably should've shown the source tweet, as the "chrischrip" one just having another opportunity to shit on "rule breaking" "not testing" on the poor all wrapped up in some fake "they can't take the loss of earnings" sentiment annoyed.

Particularly as the main working age group have higher rates in the more deprived areas, so the data doesn't even support this bash the poor view.

Anyway, on the data, is not just a London & South East being low and more likely to be in IMD 10 compared to other areas more likely to be in IMD 1? Rather than getting into specific details as to why neighbouring boroughs are so different?

Sorry, does that work:

twitter.com/alastairgrant4/status/1450350248895782924?s=21

She’s not bashing the poor at all, but acknowledging the realities?

"“The government ought to not just announce that we’re moving to plan B, but it should be plan B plus."

Is there anyone who believes this gov has a Pan B even?

plan b obv.

They published it - well all three lines of it.
It says restrict large gatherings, insist on masks in a few places, maybe WFH.

@JanglyBeads where did it say about large gatherings. I missed that. What do they classify as large?

No vaccine passports?

Is there an article

Yes sorry, I missed out passporting.

Published on 14 Sept the Autumn /Winter Plan, plan B is about 2/3 of the way through:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021/covid-19-response-autumn-and-winter-plan-2021

Thanks

I'm not sure Juergen week has quite worked out as planned.

Deprivation therefore.

Using MSOA based deprivation (average of constituent LSOA scores based on the approach suggested in one of the earlier iterations of the thread) plotted against case rates.

Looking at a single seven day period in isolation would seem, perhaps just to me, a slightly odd approach.

I've started therefore back in early January.

Just to add to aid comparisons each graph has the same y-axis scale, so a handful (and that is all it is out of 6791) of MSOAs may not be shown as the axis is capped at a rate 2000 per 100,000. The x-axis is of course fixed and runs low to high deprivation.

Then roughly about the time of the Euros surge. This is the seven days to 8th July.

week to 2nd September, so just as schools in most areas in England just about to go back after the holidays.

and then the most recent week as published today, up to 14th October.

given the shift in that last week, here are the weeks to 16th and 23rd September.

Very interesting graphs and shift, thanks boys.