Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@wintertravel1980
ok, hope you don't mind a few questions

1. what ages do you classify as children? I have a teen in gcse year, so when I say children I refer automatically to older teens. And it has been shown that there is a difference in small kids and teens. So I think it would be important to clarify who we are talking about (yes, I should take my own advice, sorry for not stating it)
2. Children are less likely to scream at school ok, valid on the concert part. On the other hand they have assemblies 2x a week and singing all together at least once a week. That is 2-400 kids singing at once on a regular basis. And they have all yeargroup games sessions once a week.
3. interaction: not sure I agree with you there totally, but see your point.
4. Leicester. I am not convinced that this is a valid fact. I am not basing this on facts and can only hope that someone (boys3 maybe) can put me in my place. It can be because 1 week is not enough to start creating the spike, maybe the testing level is lower and the willingness to test is lower. to rephrase: I would like to know if there are other factors potentially masking what is happening.* Hope not.

I do see an oxymoron in your reasoning though
children get infected less vs many had covid
If they don't get infected less why have so many already had covid?

to me both statements feel more emotion based than fact. (caveat: not up to date with data, so feel free to correct me)

*actually this frustrates me a lot. The level of trust towards reporting bodies (media, phe,...) in my case is very low. They have proven over and over again how they twist facts to suit the gov narrative regardless of what is happening. I wish it wasn't so.

winter school classes at senior maybe 30, but they are not the same 30 each lesson. Siblings are the link between schools. Senior schools are full of teenagers not children.

Regards Leicester I'm not encouraged, they had it tough for a long time, I wouldn't be surprised if most have antibodies, this will not be replicated everywhere.

Leicester current age band with the highest rate per 100,000 is...........

10-14s

Although the overall rate trajectory looks to be pretty stable and possibly with a shallow decline

At the overall level in England - I’ll post something more visual in a bit - from the age demographic cases for England, five day lag here, 12746 fewer cases in the most recent seven days as compared with the prior week,

However only 5 of 19 age bands actually had a fall in cases.

15-19 down 11697

20-24 down 6313

25-29 down 3217

30-34 down 1204

35-39 down by 21

1. what ages do you classify as children?

Under 18.

I do see an oxymoron in your reasoning though
children get infected less vs many had covid
If they don't get infected less why have so many already had covid?

I used "many" to define a "significant percentage of the population", however the numbers are still much lower than in the older population groups. ONS surveys have consistently demonstrated that the level of antibodies decreases with age:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/26may2021

(figure 4) - the historic data up to mid-March is in the downloadable spreadsheet. Back then roughly 30-33% of 16-18 year olds already had Covid. It is a high number but the seroprevalence in young adults (18-29 year olds) was even higher.

@Bordois

When schools went back last September and March it was off the back of lockdown so kids hadn't really been mixing with anyone outside their own family. This time round they've had months of mixing so going back to school is a different scenario entirely to before.

Yeah, my neighbour and one of his daughters has it now - the three other daughters will be sitting in class with 30 other people.

@boys3

Although the overall rate trajectory looks to be pretty stable and possibly with a shallow decline

this is with the 5 day, right? So we can't see school impact yet?

Just to clarify - I absolutely expect the number of infections in school aged children to go up. However, previously I thought the spike would drive total cases up by 10-20% over the period of 2-3 weeks. Now I think/hope the numbers may stay flat - and increased cases in schoolchildren might be offset by decreases in other age groups.

And to clarify again - ONS surveys have consistently demonstrated that the level of antibodies decreases in younger age groups (i.e. 16 year olds have got lower seroprevalence than 18 year olds).

I expect cases to rise too. Just pointing out that we are in a completely different situation to last March and September so any comparison is pretty meaningless. As I said on a different thread, if the likes of SAGE, Warwick et al get it so wrong* with their modelling, us randoms on the Internet stand less chance of predicting what might happen.

@wintertravel1980

1. what ages do you classify as children?

Under 18.

I do see an oxymoron in your reasoning though
children get infected less vs many had covid
If they don't get infected less why have so many already had covid?

I used "many" to define a "significant percentage of the population", however the numbers are still much lower than in the older population groups. ONS surveys have consistently demonstrated that the level of antibodies decreases with age:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/26may2021

(figure 4) - the historic data up to mid-March is in the downloadable spreadsheet. Back then roughly 30-33% of 16-18 year olds already had Covid. It is a high number but the seroprevalence in young adults (18-29 year olds) was even higher.

There's a paper out this week that says that 36% of people don't seroconvert and the percentage that do is inversely correlated with age. We cannot use seroprevalence as a straight estimate of previous infection in children and young people.

Forgot the link.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/9/21-1042_article

Is it to soon to hope that Scotland may have peaked? There definitely doesn't seem to the same level of increase that we had previously.

Remind us non-science types what seroconversion is, please?

today's England spec date graphic

week to date equivalent case numbers by region

for England rates by age band for the past six weeks

then actual case numbers by age band

the percentage that each age band represents of each weekly case total

weekly change in case numbers for each age band as compared with the previous week

Interesting point, QueenStromba. I have not seen this study.

I am not sure how reliable the 36% number is (given the size of the sample -- only 72 participants) but I take the point. If seroconversion (production of Covid antibodies) indeed varies with age, then we should be making adjustments to ONS numbers.

@Wakeupin2022

Is it to soon to hope that Scotland may have peaked? There definitely doesn't seem to the same level of increase that we had previously.

They appear to have been having a similar exit wave to the one that happened in England after our restrictions were removed. Issue is their schools went back at a similar time so it messes up any analysis 😫😅

EU published/leaked the latest information on vaccine exports:

twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1433455570271473671

We have got plenty of vaccines. Looks like the second Pfizer order (60 million doses) is being delivered early. We can boost the older age groups. We can vaccinate teenagers. The hold up is entirely with JCVI.

No wonder the government is getting impatient. They have negotiated a pretty impressive deal (from the UK standpoint - globally vaccine hoarding is not a good thing) and now cannot do anything will all the doses in storage.