Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Has anyone read the article by Andrew Lilico in the Telegraph- explaining how we've hit the summer HIT and that the Epidemic stage is pretty much done?

Yes, I have. I also follow him on twitter.

He is a controversial individual (to say the least) but he has been right about the direction of pandemic multiple times (starting from May 2020 when his model predicted 85,000 deaths in the second wave). I really want to believe in what he is saying but, of course, we should wait before we celebrate.

I dont know much about him but got the impression he was a bit marmite 🤣

Yeah, definitely marmite:). I skip his twitter posts on Brexit and a few other divisive topics.

His modelling has been really good though.

@JanglyBeads

Remind us non-science types what seroconversion is, please?

Making persistent antibodies in response to an infection.

(I don't know where the persistent came from in that sentence - I think I've been reading too much about vaccine immunity waning).

Thanks

There's a paper out this week that says that 36% of people don't seroconvert and the percentage that do is inversely correlated with age

Is this just the mild case, low response, not enough to be detectable, and severity is correlated with age? Or something else?

Am i right in thinking any spikes/outbreaks caused by Leeds/Reading, etc. should be starting to show from now?

Am i right in thinking any spikes/outbreaks caused by Leeds/Reading, etc. should be starting to show from now?

Yes, most of the cases should come between today and the weekend.

Covid twitter enthusiasts managed to see very first indicators in the numbers reported yesterday:

twitter.com/tincanfield/status/1433459507166916614

So there is a spike but for now it is still small. Boardmasters effect became evident from early on but South East and North East have got higher levels of pre-existing immunity than SW (and especially Cornwall).

South East and North East have got higher levels of pre-existing immunity than SW (and especially Cornwall).

How do you know about pre-existing immunity by area? Is there data on this please.

How do you know about pre-existing immunity by area? Is there data on this please.

My approach is not particularly scientific or data-driven. I just look at the cumulative reported prevalence by region / LA in the government dashboard. The numbers will be missing cases from the first wave (spring 2020) but they should still provide a directional view.

South West has always appeared at the very bottom of the list and the gap to SE prior to the Boardmasters spike was much larger.

Cornwall's reported prevalence was particularly low (about 5,000 per 100,000 population vs 17,000/100,000 in Blackburn) so it is not surprising it was vulnerable to outbreaks.

@wintertravel1980

Am i right in thinking any spikes/outbreaks caused by Leeds/Reading, etc. should be starting to show from now?

Yes, most of the cases should come between today and the weekend.

Covid twitter enthusiasts managed to see very first indicators in the numbers reported yesterday:

twitter.com/tincanfield/status/1433459507166916614

So there is a spike but for now it is still small. Boardmasters effect became evident from early on but South East and North East have got higher levels of pre-existing immunity than SW (and especially Cornwall).

All you have to do is look at any sixth form support threads to see how many 16-18 year olds have come back form reading or Leeds and tested positive. Attendance of our year 12s today was poor. Lots off with covid or isolating for reasons not clear...

Thank you winter. I wonder whether the boardmasters spike hit the south badly because the majority of the attendees were from the south.

Pre existing immunity could be dependent on the variant that hit the area. South East were struck quite hard by Alpha, but that doesn't mean strong immunity against Delta.

today's spec date graphic for England.

Monday (day-4) being a Banl Hol slightly muddies the picture. Its drop as compared with last week not quite offsetting the higher numbers this week for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yesterday up, so will be interesting to see what impact may work through from Reading and Leeds festivals.

Also of note in the England figures reported today.

977 cases with a spec date between 27th and 29th August

Then a negative adjustment of 74 for 24th to 26th

Followed 400 cases adjusted on with spec dates between 1st July and 23rd August.

10k of the 30k England cases with specimen dates of 1st and 2nd Sept are LFTs.... schools testing already having a big impact I think.

English regions equivalent numbers for spec dates as reported this week (starting Monday) so far as compared with the same point last week.

Quite a few up, including the South East, but not, as yet, dramatically so.

London again down.

Thanks, boys3. Yes, the full numbers for yesterday will be interesting.

Yes, it is likely to be "back-to-school" school testing, possibly in combination with festival returners testing.

The teenage children of my neighbours managed to return unscratched again:). They were negative after Boardmasters. They seem to be negative after Reading. To the best of their knowledge, they never had Covid but our MSOA had 1,500+ prevalence in winter... so who knows?

@PatriciaHolm

10k of the 30k England cases with specimen dates of 1st and 2nd Sept are LFTs.... schools testing already having a big impact I think.

True. So about 22% up compared with the numbers reported last Friday.

Taking both LFD only positives and LFDs confirmed by a PCR

Today reports for the last 2 days 12114

of which 9976 LFD only not yet confirmed by a PCR at this point and 2138 LFDs with a PCR confirmation

last Friday reported for the equivalents 9945

of which at that point 7955 were LFD only. So today’s number up 25%

And 1990 were LFDs with a confirmed PCR. Today number up a more modest 7.5%

1.46 million reported LFDs over the past two days, 27% up on the 1.15 million reported last Wednesday and Thursday.

All you have to do is look at any sixth form support threads to see how many 16-18 year olds have come back form reading or Leeds and tested positive. Attendance of our year 12s today was poor. Lots off with covid or isolating for reasons not clear

This DS's year group of 150 had 25 positive tests from in school testing on Wednesday. He says only those who caught it at boardmasters didn't catch it at Reading.

Should say year 13

Have just heard of a school where 74 Y13s plus some in other years have tested positive - all went to Reading.

Interestingly Zoe is down today..