Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

South West region councils, two tables. all bar one council with a falling rate in the most recent week; a number having some significant week on week falls.

Plymouth highest in the region, and with the 2nd highest rate in England. So a darker shade in the most recent week, also its actual rate has gone down to to 494 per 100,000 from 564 in w/e 22nd.

North East far fewer councils, the lowest of any region, and most with an upward movement, although none particularly rapid.

North West some risers here as well, but nothing remotely like some of the SW single week increases seen a couple of weeks back.

Again two tables to cover all the councils in the region.

London one table for Inner and one for Outer boroughs. Largely a sea of green, and those few with a week on week rise do not have significant increases in their rate.

South East just 4 of 67 with a rise. Sevenoaks and Canterbury have the two current lowest rates in England. A lot of councils; these are the first two tables.

and the third and fourth tables for the South East

Yorkshire and the Humber , around one third with increases, but all by limited amounts.

West Midlands , again a few ups, and in the case of Newcastle-under-Lyme quite a sharp increase.

East of England

East Midlands Lincoln at 750 per 100,000 in w/e 1st Aug has fallen every week since now standing at the 330 mark; still leaving it in the top 100 council areas, but not greatly higher than the median rate.

Finally, although all their constituent lower tier councils will have featured in the tables posted these are the county council areas.

Thanks, boys3.

North West picture is always fascinating. Other regions seem more homogenous but NW boroughs often move in quite different directions.

@JanglyBeads

Think it said asymptomatic close contacts can continue to attend school only if masked and testing at least twice a week (will this mean PCR as CDC have banned LFTs haven’t they?)

I think they've only banned a certain brand/manufacturer of LFTs. They're definitely using them in some places at schools. I see them referred to as rapid tests there.

I wasn’t sure if it was just the Innova ones.

Really interesting and somewhat reassuring charts boys3 thank you so much.

Does anyone have a graph showing (on the same graph) cases, hospital admissions and deaths from March 2020 until now? I remember seeing one but can't find it anywhere.

@PatrickTheFox

Does anyone have a graph showing (on the same graph) cases, hospital admissions and deaths from March 2020 until now? I remember seeing one but can't find it anywhere.

There is one on the Travelling Tabby page, just over half way down: www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

So, cases down again in England, plus a slight drop overall week on week for the UK as a whole.

I'm seeing a few reports saying that even with a spike in cases caused by England schools going back, the r rate is unlikely to go much above 1, which would be fantastic if true!

I'm seeing a few reports saying that even with a spike in cases caused by England schools going back, the r rate is unlikely to go much above 1, which would be fantastic if true!

I am starting to wonder exactly the same thing.

Schools in Leicester went back on August 25. There have been no spikes in cases so far.

Reading and Leeds also seem to be doing OK. Today would have been the first day when we could have seen the festival impact.

I think one thing that most ppl simply don't take into account: kids are going back with absolutely ZERO mitigation in place.
For some reason I can hardly fathom that the virus will not take up the opportunity to run rampant.

I'd love to be persuaded by facts and logical conclusions on why it is not going to be a problem that we will let 10-12m ppl mix'n'match and how that won't have almost any effect other than a spike.

And along this logic also: when ppl say that it's going to cause a spike like the eurosomething cup and that it will be no more than a spike....

Why do you think that? The euro spike was a spike because the superspreader event was a one off (few days max if we take pre and after drinks as well). And it was a very limited time.
School will be daily 6-9 hours (incl. travel) every day, every week....

When schools went back last September and March it was off the back of lockdown so kids hadn't really been mixing with anyone outside their own family. This time round they've had months of mixing so going back to school is a different scenario entirely to before.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I think one thing that most ppl simply don't take into account: kids are going back with absolutely ZERO mitigation in place. For some reason I can hardly fathom that the virus will not take up the opportunity to run rampant.

I'd love to be persuaded by facts and logical conclusions on why it is not going to be a problem that we will let 10-12m ppl mix'n'match and how that won't have almost any effect other than a spike.

And along this logic also: when ppl say that it's going to cause a spike like the eurosomething cup and that it will be no more than a spike....

Why do you think that? The euro spike was a spike because the superspreader event was a one off (few days max if we take pre and after drinks as well). And it was a very limited time.
School will be daily 6-9 hours (incl. travel) every day, every week....

Exactly Sun this in the BBC is just not true

Schools are not "drivers" or "hubs" of Covid infection, Public Health England's medical director has said. Dr Yvonne Doyle said she understood parents' nervousness about schools returning after the summer in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

She stressed that lots of measures to cut Covid spread remained in place.

There are no measures other than two test in first week and opening windows most of which are unable to be opened no year bubbles, no isolations and back to bullying parents into attendance (even if there is a covid case in the house) I hope the optimism on this thread comes true but I can not see it.

I'd love to be persuaded by facts and logical conclusions on why it is not going to be a problem that we will let 10-12m ppl mix'n'match and how that won't have almost any effect other than a spike.

Here are some of the factors:

• Children are less likely to get infected.
• Children are less likely to be super spreaders (the probability is not zero but viral load increases with age):

www.news-medical.net/news/20210119/Large-study-finds-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-is-lowest-in-children.aspx

• Children are less likely to scream at school (they do, of course, but they cannot compete with the Euro 2020 fans/Boardmasters crowds)
• Super spreading events involve hundreds/thousands of people. School class sizes are around 30.
• Many children have already had Covid.
• Children generally interact with their schoolmates. It is adults that act as connections across different schools. The vast majority of adults (90%+) has got Covid antibodies. An outbreak in a single school might die there.
• Covid does not seem to be running rampant in Leicester. This is probably the most encouraging fact.

I'll be the happiest if there are logical reasons presented. I don't like to be doom and gloom (normally i'm not that kind of person).
But this thread and media just shows me a lot of wishful thinking.
I am the first to admin that "the reception might be bad on my side" :)

A school in Leicester was mentioned this morning that had 12 cases in two days . Class sizes are 30 but year groups are 400 sometimes.

I am not sure the return to school testing is being very well attended...

I hope the optimists are right, I really do...