Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 30/08/2021 16:05

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
163
CaptainMerica · 01/09/2021 07:30

@Reastie

I’ve been looking up percentage positive of pcrs and I think this shows it’s currently just under 10%. This seems quite high to me, implying that cases are a lot higher than testing positive numbers suggest. Is this right or have I misunderstood the stats?
I don't think test positivity can be compared to earlier rates now there is wide availability of LFTs. So many people are taking an LFT and only logging the result or taking a PCR if it is positive.

(I'm in scotland where LFTs are freely available and we are all asked to take them twice a week - not sure if it is the same in the rest of the UK?)

CaptainMerica · 01/09/2021 07:41

@Perihelion

I'd like to think Scotland has peaked, but the test positivity is 14.9% today and the school population to work through. I am wondering when some school closures might occur. DD has had 2 lessons this week, where no teacher/cover has turned up. There's also TRNSMT festival in 10 days time. There's no camping, but 50k attending each day. It's being held on Glasgow Green, right in the middle of Glasgow, which currently has a 7 day rate of 947.5 per 100k It's also getting cooler, the days happily having window and door wide open are going.
It does look like it might have peaked again, for now at least.

I am worried about schools. I know of classes where there have been multiple cases in a primary school class, and the rest of the class are attending as usual, including the kids who were sitting next to them.

Also, the cases rate among 18 - 21 yos heading back to uni soon is very high. Lots of them will be vaccinated, but with night clubs open it is surely going to cause very high case numbers in universities. Hopefully it will not lead to serious illness, and not spread outside the uni community.

Reastie · 01/09/2021 07:41

@CaptainMerica but lft are only for asymptotic testing. Anecdotally, all I keep hearing is people testing positive on pcr but negative on lft. I can’t find any data on comparing effectiveness of lfts on alpha vs beta variants

CaptainMerica · 01/09/2021 09:30

[quote Reastie]@CaptainMerica but lft are only for asymptotic testing. Anecdotally, all I keep hearing is people testing positive on pcr but negative on lft. I can’t find any data on comparing effectiveness of lfts on alpha vs beta variants[/quote]
That's the rule, but I don't think it is the reality. Particularly for people who have symptoms which are not the main three.

And I totally understand why. If I woke up with a sore throat and a headache, why would I drive 20 miles to my nearest test centre and isolate for 2 or 3 days waiting for a result (current result times), when I could go and get a test from my kitchen, and tell myself it's just a cold if it's negative? Especially if I am genuinely "sure" it's just a cold. Whereas earlier in the pandemic, more people would have got a PCR test, as they didn't have LFTs in the house.

I think the reasons why that is a bad idea have completely been lost on the majority of people. Everyone I know who has had symptoms recently has done an LFT, and not tracked the result.

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 16:13

Reastie I agree.

BBC reporting on long Covid in children, says a range of 7-14% is “reassuring” compared to the estimates of 50% early on in the pandemic. I don’t remember hearing such estimates!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58406184
Reported here from 12:23 onwards.

Wilma55 · 01/09/2021 16:16

Today's deaths 207, presumably catching up from BH weekend?

boys3 · 01/09/2021 16:28

today's spec date graphic for England. Tuesday (eg Day-1) obviously higher with the bank hol as compared to last Tuesday; although the growth is slightly more than offset by the Monday (day-2) comparison.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 01/09/2021 16:29

and English regional start of week cases comparison with equivalent point last week.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
herecomesthsun · 01/09/2021 16:29

@JanglyBeads

Reastie I agree.

BBC reporting on long Covid in children, says a range of 7-14% is “reassuring” compared to the estimates of 50% early on in the pandemic. I don’t remember hearing such estimates!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58406184
Reported here from 12:23 onwards.

A large study quoted 1.8% children as having persistent symptoms previously. But then, we are still accumulating data and knowledge. I don't remember seeing 50% either.
Bordois · 01/09/2021 16:32

@Wilma55

Today's deaths 207, presumably catching up from BH weekend?
I'd say so - was 50, 48 and 61 last 3 days
Bizawit · 01/09/2021 16:50

@JanglyBeads

Reastie I agree.

BBC reporting on long Covid in children, says a range of 7-14% is “reassuring” compared to the estimates of 50% early on in the pandemic. I don’t remember hearing such estimates!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58406184
Reported here from 12:23 onwards.

7-14% sounds ridiculous. Where do these numbers come from?
herecomesthsun · 01/09/2021 16:55

One in seven children aged 11 to 17 in England who have had Covid-19 suffer from persistent symptoms, a government-backed study has found.

The CLoCk study, funded by the National Institute for Health Research and UK Research and Innovation, compared survey data from about 3,000 people aged 11 to 17 who tested positive for Covid-19 in England between January and March this year and 3,700 children who tested negative.

The study’s findings suggest that long Covid was the likely cause of one in seven children who had tested positive experiencing three or more symptoms 15 weeks after infection. One in 14 children reported five or more symptoms.

The data suggest that over seven months between September 2020 and March 2021 at least 4,000 and possibly 32,000 teenagers in England may have had multiple symptoms tied to Covid-19 infection after 15 weeks.

Females, older teens and those with worse pre-test physical and mental health were more likely to experience long Covid, the study said.

Physical symptoms included unusual tiredness, shortness of breath, headaches and loss of taste or smell. ..

 there will be young people — even though the numbers aren’t huge — [who] are very severely affected,” said Stephenson [Sir Terence Stephenson, Nuffield professor of child health at University College London]. “There will be some young people who are completely bed-ridden or remain very short of breath or have daily headaches.”

www.ft.com/content/31c30156-e446-469a-86d6-a1b93ccf91a0

Piggywaspushed · 01/09/2021 17:02

Also, that pre dates Delta, which may or may not alter things.

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 17:26

The 7-14% figure comes about because they’re trying to guess whether the 87% of positive cases who didn’t respond to the survey were likely to have multiple symptoms, or few symptoms!

Surely this isn’t how scientific studies normally work??

Will try and find the long R4 interview I heard a couple of weeks ago about the study.

Piggywaspushed · 01/09/2021 17:28

I think that is always the problem with self reporting of symptoms and allows scepticism to build up about long covid as it has with ME and CFS

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 17:32

Here, first 15 mins:
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000ycx6

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 17:33

I remember being rather unimpressed with the whole thing!

herecomesthsun · 01/09/2021 17:33

@JanglyBeads

The 7-14% figure comes about because they’re trying to guess whether the 87% of positive cases who didn’t respond to the survey were likely to have multiple symptoms, or few symptoms!

Surely this isn’t how scientific studies normally work??

Will try and find the long R4 interview I heard a couple of weeks ago about the study.

Surely this isn’t how scientific studies normally work??

lol no

sirfredfredgeorge · 01/09/2021 17:42

This one is interesting on the "schools opening", San Francisco, quite similar in many ways to many UK cities in restrictions, vaccination etc. Same Delta spike after removing restrictions, but schools seem to have caused no kink back upwards after the "pub" (bar?) spike.

twitter.com/djconnel/status/1433097507492360192

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 18:02

Maybe but look at their school mitigations, eg universal masking indoors and optional outdoors:
www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/K-12-Guidance-2021-22-School-Year.aspx

QueenStromba · 01/09/2021 18:06

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]This one is interesting on the "schools opening", San Francisco, quite similar in many ways to many UK cities in restrictions, vaccination etc. Same Delta spike after removing restrictions, but schools seem to have caused no kink back upwards after the "pub" (bar?) spike.

twitter.com/djconnel/status/1433097507492360192[/quote]
How is this anything like what we're doing?

All employees must be fully vaccinated by Sept. 7 or face weekly testing; the district is considering a vaccine mandate for students 12 and older.
Students must self-screen for COVID-19 symptoms each day and wear a mask at all times.
All classrooms will have air cleaners.

As far as I can tell you also still need to isolate if you are a close contact.

JanglyBeads · 01/09/2021 18:26

Think it said asymptomatic close contacts can continue to attend school only if masked and testing at least twice a week (will this mean PCR as CDC have banned LFTs haven’t they?)

wintertravel1980 · 01/09/2021 18:34

We will see what happens in England with schools coming back.

I am personally optimistic and I feel we are likely to have a repetition of the March 8th scenario where cases might spike by 10-20% for 2-3 weeks, plateau and then start falling.

Universities are higher risk but I am hoping we should be able to contain the spread better than last year.

boys3 · 01/09/2021 19:17

Set of tables for England to show cases per 100,000 for each of the past six weeks, using a three day lag so the most recent seven days are up to and inclusive of Sunday 29th August.

There is a column that then simply shows UP or DOWN in terms of the most recent week as compared to the prior week; a sparkline, and finally the rate per 100,000 to 30th Aug so using a 2 day lag with this highlighted if higher than the most recent 3 day lag rate.

For council area tables the first column shows their rank relative to every other council in England, rank 1 being highest rate.

Formatting is against every location within each individual week, so a lower rate could show a darker colour - Plymouth is the prime example of this as the South West table will show.

As usual the overall England rate and the median rate in England are shown at the top of every table.

Before we get to councils a table just showing the regions to get started.

The South West still has the highest rate, however that has dropped in a week by almost the same amount that it rose between w/e 15th and w/e 22nd August. One region, the North East, shows a small increase in rate for the most recent week.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
Bordois · 01/09/2021 19:20

@wintertravel1980

We will see what happens in England with schools coming back.

I am personally optimistic and I feel we are likely to have a repetition of the March 8th scenario where cases might spike by 10-20% for 2-3 weeks, plateau and then start falling.

Universities are higher risk but I am hoping we should be able to contain the spread better than last year.

I'm inclined to go with this too.

As I said on the last thread, with the BH and some schools returning this week the next ,couple of weeks are going to be interesting case wise! A 20% increase in England would put us at about 29-30k cases a day going by current figures.