Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Thank goodness isolating close contacts has stopped. Presumably it’s a once off isolation as the positive case.

Where I am in London infections are plummeting for example.

Just looked dropping here too - London. Which is great

Hospitalisations continuing to fall 🤞🏻🤞🏻

Thank goodness isolating close contacts has stopped. Presumably it’s a once off isolation as the positive case

Or it's kids being sent home and told not to return until a PCR test has returned for a rhinovirus, and it'll be repeated few day isolations.

I was trying to calculate how many we would have off if the old rules still applied marsha. Hundreds. but the fact remains that we still have more covid cases on the go at our school than ever before. For each individual child that is probably less disruptive (assuming a mild cases, and no more serious cases in household) but for teachers this remains a serious workload issue which really needs addressing : but not a conversation for data thread, obviously. An exhausted workforce remains a threat to DCs' education and DCs in exam years will still always be an issue .

@sirfredfredgeorge

Thank goodness isolating close contacts has stopped. Presumably it’s a once off isolation as the positive case

Or it's kids being sent home and told not to return until a PCR test has returned for a rhinovirus, and it'll be repeated few day isolations.

That isn't a rule in England (and Wales?) fred and these stats are for England.

I sat with year 12s coughing everywhere today and not a single one had been told, or expected to take, a PCR...

That isn't a rule in England (and Wales?) fred and these stats are for England

I know it's not a rule, but plenty of anecdotes about schools doing it, and even if it's not schools doing it, it could still be just rhinoviruses presenting covid test symptoms - I know no-one in my family has had covid test symptoms since testing has been available, but equally know many who get covid test symptoms with other respiratory viruses.

I remembered this, and found the original article. Rhinovirus seems to suppress CoronaVirus. So perhaps this explains the high number of coughs and colds, and yet Covid cases are going down?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445#:~:text=Some%20viruses%20are%20known%20to,still%20help%20to%20suppress%20Covid.

It's a short lived effect, but with everyone mixing again in huge numbers, and all at the same time, perhaps this will suppress Covid for a while.

It doesn’t need to be a rule if the symptoms match?

Yes, if a child has a cough for example, they should be absent and take a PCR. I say should with a bit of a sigh...

I wonder if unis going back won't have too much of an impact now. Most students are there as they're serious about their education and won't want their exam results lowered due to being ill - I wonder if for that reason vaccine take up will be quite high. My DD is at uni and says all of her friends including wider circle have been vaccinated, as well as all her old friends at home who went to uni.

I was so surprised last year when Ds didn’t have it he had a high temperature and cough - but PCR was negative

Lots off in DS school yesterday (primary) after testing positive over weekend. DS has no symptoms at all but also tested postive last night. He must have picked it up last week so we must be a few days into it, so hopefully he will remain relatively unaffected.

Myself and DH still negative so far!

Nice to see some MSOA back in white at last on the map! Splashes of the manky yellow and green back too (even Stonebridge!).

Bordois what prompted you to test? Did the school email you

@JanglyBeads

Bordois, thanks, that graph’s great, what’s the source please?

Here

twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1439987812820996097?s=19

@MarshaBradyo

Bordois what prompted you to test? Did the school email you

Plain curiosity really. I'm glad in a way that he has got it now and its out of the way. With all the other kids in his class off with it at the same time it should hopefully mean less disruption coming into the winter months and not having the worry of our Christmas plans not being able to happen!

@MRex

Nice to see some MSOA back in white at last on the map! Splashes of the manky yellow and green back too (even Stonebridge!).

Its a real mixed bag round here too. Mostly light and dark blues with one purple and a couple of greens

Hoping your family all stay well @Bordois!

Some others have been wondering the same thing as I was:

mobile.twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1439966843381460992?s=21

@JanglyBeads

I’m hearing and reading about a lot of people with positive LFD results who go on to have negative PCRs. It worries me that a neg PCR is taken as the LFD result being wrong, whilst statistically this is far less probably that that the PCR result is a false negative.

What do others think?

I've heard of this a few times as well. Unfortunately because LFTs have a reputation for being unreliable people are pretty quick to dismiss them whereas PCRs are taken as being completely accurate even though on here plenty have tested negative using PCRs in early stages of Covid.

We've used LFTs a lot in our household over the last year for schools, care home visits etc and the only 2 positives we've had have been when me and DD got covid. DD's was confirmed with a PCR, I didn't bother with one because I couldn't face T and T and planned on self-isolating anyway.

I think if we can't trust a positive LFT what's the point in using them?

was so surprised last year when Ds didn’t have it he had a high temperature and cough - but PCR was negative

The highest positivity in the last 16 months in 18%, now we don't know how many of those PCR people were simple "symptom tests", but given some were close contact or after LFD (so expected higher positivity rates) I think we can be pretty confident that even the testable symptoms have a pretty low chance of being positive, unless the worried completely well are absolutely monopolising the tests!

Would love to see stats on the actual number of people tested in the last year, and the distribution, ie how may people have had 10+ tests vs how many zero, rather than just the absolute number of tests.

Me too @Sweetpeasaremadeforbees. And see the twitter link so posted.

mobile.twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1439966843381460992?s=21

I'm not sure the Orkney and Shetland data actually says what he claims, if false positive were simply by chance, then it might, but there's every reason to believe false positives are not by chance, but influenced by other viruses, by the acidity of recent things you've eaten, and all sorts that mean they is no reason to assume you can extend that data. Certainly not uncritically based on a simple number as done there.

Obviously any positive is more likely to be a true positive when prevalence is high (although it's also more likely to have been a past infection rather than a currently infectious one as it's more likely you'd already had it) And again what it's missing is the time factor, as LFD's and PCRS are not taken at the same time on the same sample, but the simplification on the thread is that they are, some people will have stopped being infectious between the tests, not that many 'cos the sensitivity question ('cos PCR is more sensitive, some will have recovered).

Even in people ill enough to be hospitalised with covid by day 9 1/3rd of people are not positive on PCRs. In non-hospitalised vaccinated (shortens infection) individuals there's lots of evidence that the course of the virus is even shorter, so it's likely some of the individuals will have recovered in that time, and as mrex said above, isolation is not a punishment for catching the virus, it's about preventing spread. If you're not PCR positive 'cos you've cleared it then there's no reason to be harmed by isolating.

If you're worried about false negative PCRs, you need to demonstrate harm, not simply play around with numbers above on after LFD's. The corollary to the twitter statement that in times of high prevalence the positive LFD should be taken as positive is surely that in times of low prevalence and no contact the positive LFD should be taken as more likely to be a false? That was the case in march/april, so why not just make it a rule?

PCRs taken too early 'cos of the "test if you're a contact" are more likely to be a harmful false negative than any negative after and LFD.