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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 30/08/2021 16:05

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
163
boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:44

a bit of stating, or rather visualising the obvious but all those perfect swirls have well and truly given me the ick

One of the messier offerings.

10-14s difficult miss even when every age group shown.

This uses the @jamesward tip so covers cases up to Sunday 19th spec date, which is a two lag with slight caveats as a result (ie a few more cases to be added).

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
Piggywaspushed · 21/09/2021 20:46

What is the crazy black line? I can't see the key...

boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:47

moving into more limited number of age bands.

0-4s through to 15-19s

The latter peaks around Boardmasters, and then likely Reading/Leeds clear to see. Thereafter down although signs of a slight - so far - uplift in most recent couple of days.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:50

showing the 15-19s again but alongside the 20-24s through to 35-39s

The 20-24s now have the lowest latest rate of these age groups - a contrast to where they were on 1st Aug.

35-39s maybe, just from the last day or so, showing a very slight uplift.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:54

into the Hollywood fanzone 40-44s through to 65-69s

First point is that the y-axis scale stops at 450 rather than 1,000.

Smaller scale gives a slightly clearer sign of the trajectory reversal in the two 40-49s bands. As with the 35-39s getting into the peak parent age groups in which we might start seeing some seepage.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:56

finally Pru and friends. 70 and upwards age bands

The y axis scale on this stops at 175 per 100,000.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 20:58

@Piggywaspushed

What is the crazy black line? I can't see the key...
@Piggywaspushed 15-19s the more specific Guiseppe / Jurgen graphs should be easier to view.
OP posts:
Piggywaspushed · 21/09/2021 21:00

Ah.

I already love Jurgen very much on a side note.

boys3 · 21/09/2021 21:08

Back to Downing street some 2021 vs 2020 graphs - the first one is cases; but then the more critical numbers for hospital, daily admissions, and deaths within 28 days by date of occurrence not reported date. The data is for England, and is based on the seven day average.

For the health and fatality metrics the data is shown for the overall timescales; then for Aug-Dec comparison, and finally for just Aug-Oct; the smaller scales on the latter two hopefully giving greater clarity.

For cases though just a single less subtle graph so might as well get that out the way first.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 21:11

number in hospital just be aware of the very different y-axis scale

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 21:12

hospital admissions

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 21:14

and finally, as ever tinged with sadness, deaths within 28 days. Lag applied here so the latest seven day average cuts off at just under a week ago

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021
OP posts:
boys3 · 21/09/2021 21:15

@Piggywaspushed

Ah.

I already love Jurgen very much on a side note.

a bit Mark Rylance in looks I thought

Could be the merlot though.

OP posts:
Bizawit · 21/09/2021 21:34

Thanks @boys3. Really interesting graphs.

FWBNC · 22/09/2021 11:27

Can anyone help me out please?

I need a very basic summary or graphic of the numbers of people getting COVID vaxxed v non vaxxed

I have someone still spouting that the vaccinations don't work ! I need to be able to show them something 'official' & non complicated.

I do need to convince them that the vaccinations work (not 100%, but significant difference). It seriously affects my job because I'm ECV, but they don't see the point because 'the vax doesn't work', but they'd get the vax if it worked.

TIA

boys3 · 22/09/2021 13:06

@FWBNC

Can anyone help me out please?

I need a very basic summary or graphic of the numbers of people getting COVID vaxxed v non vaxxed

I have someone still spouting that the vaccinations don't work ! I need to be able to show them something 'official' & non complicated.

I do need to convince them that the vaccinations work (not 100%, but significant difference). It seriously affects my job because I'm ECV, but they don't see the point because 'the vax doesn't work', but they'd get the vax if it worked.

TIA

@FWBNC assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017676/2021-09-14_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__for_publication_.pdf from the Sep 14th Press Conference; slides 5 and 6, plus links at the bottom of each page to source data publications.
OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2021 13:28

But @boys this isn't presumably what FWNBC wants, as they're wanting someone else to have the vaccine to protect them. So it's about preventing infection, data isn't as great on that, and it's contradictory (Pfizer releasing studies showing good protection after 6 months on the same day as saying protection wanes and you need a booster) and you have limited information on the chance of infecting someone else with a breakthrough infection, although it's probably lower (certainly lower than anyone with a longer infection due to being sicker)

The Zoe study last month ( covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-protection-fading ) reckoned on 75% or 67% at 5 months depending on vaccine.

If that continues to get worse, then I am not sure of the reliance you can really get, or the worthwhileness of someone vaccinating themselves to protect another. Right now, past infection is considerably better than the above, if I really wanted to be sure of protecting someone I'd get infected whilst not seeing them, not rely on the not great vaccines, but vaccine alone will reduce the chance in the short term at least.

FWBNC · 22/09/2021 13:32

@boys3. Thank you, that'll help.

Do you have to hand, any compelling graphs/articles on why a healthy 16 year old should have it?

I've read so much, but I have serious brain fog & I can't remember what where 🙇🏻‍♀️ I need the 16 yo to be vaccinated to add a layer of protection to me (I'm ECV & have had both jabs, I'll have the booster at the first opportunity) but I'm in close contact (unavoidable) with the 16yo & I'd just feel better if they were vaccinated. Just got told today that he is a close contact of someone tested positive at school (indie so still communicating cases) & needs a PCR (which has been arranged) but I still need to be in close contact with him 🙇🏻‍♀️

FWBNC · 22/09/2021 13:42

@sirfredfredgeorge.

It's actually a bit if both. She's a single parent to a 16yo lad who I help look after.

She hasn't had & hasn't arranged for him, to have a Covid jab, she thinks they don't work as the numbers in hospital, more have had the vaccination than not. I've tried to explain that's because if the vast numbers of people have had the vaccination if you look at percentages, you can see it does work! The 16 yo isn't fussed either way, but wouldn't just go for it without his mum or me organising it & it's not something I feel happy to do when she thinks they don't work. I need to work on convincing her it's a good idea for her sake, his sake and my sake. It's about his schooling, her being a single parent & me.

boys3 · 22/09/2021 14:03

@sirfredfredgeorge yes, I see what you mean, although as you pointed out the data is much more limited. Still two angles to go at.

OP posts:
cttontail · 22/09/2021 14:50

@FWBNC

Public Health England stats week 32-35 2021 of people admitted to hospital through A&E with coronavirus...
43.8% unvaccinated, but the real story us when you look at the age groups...
80 13%

The stats are massively skewed by the older age groups, who although their risk of hospitalisation is reduced to 13% of what it was, if it was already 50% risk, then they still have a 6.5% risk of hospitalisation, which may be more than the risk of some younger age groups without the vaccine. The vast majority of the older age groups are vaccinated now, so you have a huge number who could get it after being vaccinated. They will still have better outcomes than they would otherwise have had though.

cttontail · 22/09/2021 14:54

[quote cttontail]@FWBNC

Public Health England stats week 32-35 2021 of people admitted to hospital through A&E with coronavirus...
43.8% unvaccinated, but the real story us when you look at the age groups...
80 13%

The stats are massively skewed by the older age groups, who although their risk of hospitalisation is reduced to 13% of what it was, if it was already 50% risk, then they still have a 6.5% risk of hospitalisation, which may be more than the risk of some younger age groups without the vaccine. The vast majority of the older age groups are vaccinated now, so you have a huge number who could get it after being vaccinated. They will still have better outcomes than they would otherwise have had though.[/quote]
The absolute numbers are also important...
Total admissions through A&E with coronavirus.
80 1146

Bordois · 22/09/2021 16:08

34460 today compared to 30597 reported last weds.

Hospital metrics really dropping now though

NannyAndJohn · 22/09/2021 17:16

@Bordois

34460 today compared to 30597 reported last weds.

Hospital metrics really dropping now though

Only to rise again due to the uptick in case numbers.
MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2021 17:22

Interesting to hear Chris Whitty say that half of children have had Covid - just on R4