Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I work in a secondary in a town which is now in the top ten areas with highest rates. We have been struck a lot in Y7 but not so much in other years (from what I hear - no official list emailed out any more). However other schools are worse affected.

We’re reintroducing masks in communal indoor areas from next week.

Cumbria is asking all siblings of positive cases to isolate, PCR test and only come back when negative result received

What do we think about Sarah Gilbert and John Bell saying Covid will be like a cold after this winter?

news.sky.com/story/covid-will-end-up-resembling-common-cold-by-spring-next-year-leading-experts-say-12414928

Sarah Gilbert said

""We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2," - fair enough

John Bell said "I think we're headed for the position Sarah describes and probably by next Spring would be my view"

last Novenber we had

"Prof Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, predicts "with some confidence" that things could return to normal by Spring following news that interim results of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine have shown it to be 90% effective."

Well I think Spring would be a good time to re-evaluate things

Pandemics usually last about 2 years

and John Bell has to be right sometime

but ... we'll see

I can believe it won't become deadlier, but that's quite different from it becoming like a cold by next spring. When you read the accounts here from healthy people in their 30s and 40s who've been fully vaccinated and still get really unwell from covid, it still sounds far from a cold. And covid affects multiple organs so it's quite different from having a bit of a sniffle. Colds don't cause neurological symptoms usually, do they?

The Nov prediction was before delta which changed things again.

Having said that we’ll see about Spring

I appreciate hearing Sarah Gilbert on stuff John Bell is nicely optimistic which I don’t mind but jury is out on timing

Re cold - how much is due to virus changing it our body reaction changing due to immunity . Need to read more haven’t looked much

Re cold - how much is due to virus changing it our body reaction changing due to immunity

In humans who have never seen RSV before, it's much deadlier than covid for the same age groups, after you've seen it and recovered though, it's "just a cold" until you're vulnerable and old enough that you've probably not seen much in recent times and then it can be the thing that finishes you off.

We obviously don't know what RSV would do to humans in their 50's,60's,70's who had never had RSV before because the test group doesn't exist, RSV has been around too long, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think it would be at least as deadly as covid when novel.

This is I assume what they mean, not covid changing

To be fair what he said in November was that with the vaccine we could start to return to normal in the spring. Which we were well on target with the rollout (because his comments relate to the vaccine rollout) and then Delta did occur and pushed the efficacy back

So we went into the new normal in Summer

I notice the hospital data on the daily summary hasn't been updated since 19th September. So we don't know what the admissions are looking like just now?

Not all data are updated daily on the hospital metrics, but that said NHS England have advised they are having issues with their data collection system so haven't been able to update for the last couple of days.

@ScatteredMama82

I notice the hospital data on the daily summary hasn't been updated since 19th September. So we don't know what the admissions are looking like just now?

Figures here: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Hospital days heading in the right direction.

Cases up slightly overall but it looks as if thats mostly being driven by cases in England.

Hospital data

It looks like the “back to school” wave is largely impacting England’s boroughs that were previously spared the worst of Covid. If we look at local authorities with the highest reported prevalence, we will see places that have never appeared there previously (Kettering, Allerdale, Corby, etc).

Cases in old Covid hotspots remain flat although we are seeing different dynamics across age groups. However, Covid prevalence in children started going down in Leicester (where schools went back earlier than in the rest of England).

My personal expectation is that the “back to school” wave will run out of steam in two weeks and we are likely to revert to the “endemic equilibrium” dynamics. Hospitalisations may go up again next week but they are likely to stall and eventually start falling in line with cases.

Corby was the highest in the East of England for quite a long stretch last year.

My area is still falling - London

Which I find quite something. Not sure if it’s across the city

Thread on the messy cases data and children.
mobile.twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1441430002466234370

Corby’s cumulative reported prevalence per 100,000 of population is currently 13,401. I think it was about 11,000-12,000 before the recent spike. It was meaningfully lower than the numbers for Blackburn, Burnley, Knowsley or other “old” hotspots.

I expect the spike in Corby to flatten out earlier than in areas with lower historic prevalence (e.g. Kettering).

Re: London - the level of historic immunity must be much higher than reported. Even schools, nightclubs and summer festivals do not appear to move the needle - cases remain flat or go down.

My personal expectation is that the “back to school” wave will run out of steam in two weeks and we are likely to revert to the “endemic equilibrium” dynamics. Hospitalisations may go up again next week but they are likely to stall and eventually start falling in line with cases.

Is that happening with children in Scotland? They went back to school a few weeks before England.

Yes, Scotland’s cases in 0-14 age group seem to have halved from the peak. However, Scotland re-opened many things at the same time (from nightclubs to schools) so England’s trajectory is likely to be different (closer to Leicester).

@MarshaBradyo

My area is still falling - London

Which I find quite something. Not sure if it’s across the city

Same here. Also falling in my London local authority.

Bristol cases are also falling fast!

Picking up on Winter’s point. For the first time, certainly this calendar year, the median case rate for the English districts and boroughs has moved above that for the largely more urban top tier council areas.

I'm in SE and unfortunately cases here are rising fast( esp amongst teenagers of course )

I wonder if we're still going up then will go down, so behind the curve. Gone up 60pc in a week but fairly low base.