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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 30/08/2021 16:05

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
163
sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2021 17:23

Only to rise again due to the uptick in case numbers

Remember hospitalisations don't follow the headline case rate number (this was most obvious the last week of August when cases fell quite fast but (lagged) hospitalisations didn't drop at all)

Hospitalisations follow the case rates in over 60's, for England you can see this really easily in the bottom graph on
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Quartz2208 · 22/09/2021 17:41

Yes and given this is very much a wave of school children - mine has it and it is throughout the school I am not sure hospitalisations will increase.

It certainly isnt a given

herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 17:45

yes, Whitty & JVT are saying maybe over half of children have had covid and the other half "will get it sooner or later"

Bordois · 22/09/2021 17:46

Thanks for explaining for the benefit of any lurkers sirfred and quartz

Bordois · 22/09/2021 17:47

@MarshaBradyo

Interesting to hear Chris Whitty say that half of children have had Covid - just on R4
Is that actual confirmed cases?
herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 17:49

I think the source is Whitty answering questions from MPs on the Education Committee about the inclusion of children in the Government’s Covid-19 vaccination programme.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/chris-whitty-covid-vaccine-children-jabs-b956720.html

herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 17:54

another interesting stat gleaned from this afternoon's discussion

"Prof Jonathan Van-Tam tells the education committee that data from healthcare workers puts the chance of re-infection among people who have had Covid before at between 5% and 15%."

Wakeupin2022 · 22/09/2021 17:56

@MarshaBradyo

Interesting to hear Chris Whitty say that half of children have had Covid - just on R4
I do find that surprisingly high. My children haven't had it and I don't actually know of many children who have.

Perhaps they have and its been asymptomatic but I would be surprised if that was the case tbh.

MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2021 17:58

Is that actual confirmed cases?

I’m not sure actually, reading Here’s link I can’t see more, maybe I missed it

Does that re-infection seem higher than what’s been recorded? Is the system of recording it not catching all of them

Seems a jump unless I’ve missed that too (possible)

herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 17:59

Here is the PA Media story from the opening of the education committee hearing with Prof Chris Whitty.

About half of children have already had Covid-19 and the rest are more likely to get it without a vaccine, England’s chief medical officer has suggested.

Prof Chris Whitty warned that “quite a lot of damage” could still occur over the winter months.

He told MPs: “Let’s make an assumption that the great majority of children who’ve not currently had Covid-19 are going to get it at some point over the next period.

“It won’t be necessarily in the next two or three months but they will get it sooner or later.”

But addressing the Commons education committee, Whitty added: “Vaccination will reduce that risk.”

England’s chief medical officer was facing questions from MPs about the inclusion of children in the government’s Covid-19 vaccination programme.

When asked what proportion of children had already had Covid-19, he replied: “It varies by age and it does also vary by setting, but I think if we go for roughly half I think that is a reasonable stab at this.

“That’s half over the period of the entire epidemic to date, and we’ve got quite a way to run.

“We’re running into winter so there’s still quite a lot of damage that could be done in terms of disruption.”

England’s deputy chief medical officer Prof Jonathan Van-Tam added that because the Delta variant is so infectious “we are not looking at a theoretical risk” of children aged 12 to 17 becoming infected.

He said: “I think it is really quite inevitable that they will be so at some point.”

Prof Van-Tam warned that these pupils could become infected during their GCSEs and A-levels when it is “extremely inconvenient to be laid low” with a cough, fever, and respiratory symptoms."

Warning; this came from the Grauniad feed

herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 18:04

Re infection, I think that it varies a heck of a lot by area.

"Half" would be an average over the whole country, wouldn't it?

My DC's senior school got very few cases for most of the pandemic, it would seem, bar the last week or 2 before the summer break and then quite a few in the last week or so.

One year has about a third of pupils off (through actual illness as they aren't doing isolations now).

There is now a real issue with teaching cover ( a bit of the Dunkirk spirit to it).

I'm just hoping that the teachers who have now got ill will be ok.

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2021 18:34

I don't really get how vaccination would reduce the number who get it, it's 75% effective after 5 months? vaccination would postpone getting it (just like getting it will postpone re-infection)

Finding out how that 5-15% tallies with the less than 50,000 re-infections on 6 million known positives? Anyone found the actual paper on it?

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2021 18:38

My children haven't had it and I don't actually know of many children who have

How would you know for sure? LFD's aren't that accurate, symptoms could be nothing to various non-specific symptoms, to a cold, to the testable three - but could've had it before that was possible and still protected?

I can't imagine how 90% of 20-24 year olds have had it and not 50% of children, still seems low to me.

MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2021 18:41

I think it’s asymptomatic to such a large extent in children

Remember when people reacted to the 770 university cases with only 10% with symptoms

People were generally horrified at the time (well some) but actually it can show how much infection has happened already

herecomesthsun · 22/09/2021 19:13

Well, I am sure that Whitty and JVT have access to a great deal of data to gauge the situation, and I trust their best estimate on this one.

Piggywaspushed · 22/09/2021 19:19

Whitty said it was an estimation indeed of averaging across the country.

MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2021 19:22

They’re likely to have data so not saying wrong more it’s not a surprise to me that people don’t always know many who’ve had it.

More or Less talked about London being the lowest case rate today. Which was also interesting

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2021 20:29

They’re likely to have data so not saying wrong more it’s not a surprise to me that people don’t always know many who’ve had it

They probably have a reliable estimate from SPI-M modelling...

Bordois · 22/09/2021 20:50

Snerk 😁

hahaboink · 22/09/2021 21:01

@sirfredfredgeorge

My children haven't had it and I don't actually know of many children who have

How would you know for sure? LFD's aren't that accurate, symptoms could be nothing to various non-specific symptoms, to a cold, to the testable three - but could've had it before that was possible and still protected?

I can't imagine how 90% of 20-24 year olds have had it and not 50% of children, still seems low to me.

All the kids I know that have had it (mine included) have had NO symptoms and only been picked up through LFT or PCR testing following close contacts. I think at least 50% of their friends have had it.
MRex · 22/09/2021 21:09

I don't know any kids personally from early waves except a couple untested from March 2020, but from Delta I know 8 and they all had major fever, over half severe vomiting. I think the level of viral load at the time of infection has a big impact, and the higher viral load of Delta particularly so. That said, all were fine within a week. Where am I going... Maybe that all our varying anecdotes still aren't data, it's mass actual data that's useful.

moimichme · 22/09/2021 21:18

My son was 3 in the first wave and had a cough for about a week. No fever. I caught the same illness, symptoms 2 days after his started and I was exhausted, fever, coughing for weeks, ('mild') heart palpitations after 18 days. Not tested for covid but pretty sure it was. My DH had no symptoms at all despite not isolating from us. Such a wide range of symptoms for this virus (and Zoe app trying to capture how it changes over time) must make it difficult.

Wakeupin2022 · 22/09/2021 23:06

How would you know for sure? LFD's aren't that accurate, symptoms could be nothing to various non-specific symptoms, to a cold, to the testable three - but could've had it before that was possible and still protected?

I don't. But attendance in our school @March 20 was excellent. This is a school that has to work for good attendance so it suggests to me that Covid was not spreading in school.

No bubbles burst until July 21.

Only a handful of cases before end if term in the school.

That is their primary route for infection. It didn't make it into the school. That was largely luck as some other local schools were definitely impacted more, but still less than many others.

So yes I am not 100% sure but its not a massive leap from few Covid cases in school to my kids have most likely not been infected.

I actually wish they had been as that would mean there would be less disruption for them this term......

Choconuttolata · 23/09/2021 15:45

My kids had Alpha variant when we did. Youngest age 7 had fever and cough but PCR negative. Middle child age 9 had sneezing, fatigue and loss of taste. Eldest in secondary had headache, fatigue, abdominal pain and nausea and loss of smell.

We only tested the older two when they lost taste and smell, they were already symptomatic for days with sneezing, headache etc.. before that.

There were relatively few cases in their schools at that point and they tended to be family contact cases. In early 2020 there weren't really any. In July there were more cases and bubbles closing in both primary and secondary. The secondary school is seeing more cases currently and has reinstituted masks. Primary seems ok at the moment.

There are lots of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus around at the moment and there is something about rhinovirus competing with Sars-Cov2 so I am wondering whether that is having an impact in younger age groups.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/health-56483445.amp

Piggywaspushed · 23/09/2021 20:23

Life expectancy fallen :

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58659717

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