In the 1st 7 days of Aug 2020 71 people died. In the 1st 7 days of Aug 2021 620 people died.

[DolphinFC]

Even after the vaccine, deaths are 7 times worse.

I mean I teach year 2s and they have a better understanding of maths and statistics than you, so I can only presume you just be approximately 5 years old.

Comparing apples and oranges. Do you actually remember when we started easing restrictions last year. I was contact tracing this time last year. It was like watching paint dry. Some days we had zero cases and other days we reached the dizzy heights of two. Try harder.

@PatriciaHolm

Whilst it's obvious the OP has an agenda, and I expect the post will be zapped pretty soon, I think it might be useful for anyone worried before that happens -

In July 2020, we averaged 668 cases recorded a day.
In July 2021, we averaged 33,791.

In the first 7 days of Aug 20, by date of death, 77 people in the UK died within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

In the first 7 days of Aug 21, by date of death, 549 people in the UK died within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

So cases are now approximately 50 times worse in terms of recorded cases; deaths 7 times. A staggering improvement.

Thank you.

That's a really clear explanation and really positive statistics.

I read something earlier in the independent where scientists basically said there's no point trying to stop infection spread with delta as the vaccines don't do that. They did stop spread with previous variants. They also wanted to stop community testing because they said the figures aren't helping people and it's just mostly like a cold or bad cold for most.
They suggested just recording those who are very unwell, need hospitalisation etc - so just recording number of cases of serious illness.

Stuffin isn't alone

@itsgettingwierd

Any links to scientists claiming that?

I call bullshit on it!

@DolphinFC

Thank you for the reality check.

Thank you for laughing at me Stuffin.

Props to you for coming back @DolphinFC, that can’t have been easy.

The good news is vaccines are making a difference so at least there’s that eh?

@DolphinFC

Thank you for the reality check.

Thank you for laughing at me Stuffin.

But why make the post with that singular statement, which was a silly comparison?

It's so important to be able to think critically about things. And to be reading good sources of information!

Could you have perhaps spoken to your 10 teacher friends who might have been able to explain statistics to you? I’m sure they wouldn’t mind. - they didn’t yesterday for your A Levels thread.

It wasn't easy.
To laughed at more was hurtful.

I have become increasingly concerned at the number of people who have stopped wearing masks at a time when clearly the virus is still widespread.

I did start this thread during a moment of weakness. I regret it know

I deserved many of the comments I got on this thread. However some where cruel and unnecessary.

I started this in good faith. The likes of Stuffin, AlmosrSummer and partiticulary Clarky just saw a chance to mean.

Clarke, I hope you present yourself as a better role model to your children in class.

@DolphinFC do yourself a favour and hide this thread so you’re not tempted to come back and upset yourself or get embroiled in an argument that won’t make you feel any better. You’re being pretty gracious considering - go out on a high and keep the upper hand

I don’t think the OP is scaremongering.

The deaths are quite high compared to last year. The original variant was an absolute piece of cake compared to delta. Delta hasn’t had a U.K. winter yet. Even with decent vaccination coverage the deaths will be high, perhaps very high. A disproportionate amount of these deaths will come from unvaccinated people.

People need to sit and contemplate how many deaths is acceptable. If there are no restrictions, then I’d say 50,000 to 100,000 deaths is acceptable from now until Spring. Unless flu is also ravaging, then perhaps I would downgrade that. So with those kind of numbers you are looking at 1000’s of deaths per day. With no herd immunity the unvaccinated population are going to get hit, hard.

Even if you times that by 52 weeks works out just over 30,000 similar to year on year flu deaths ..... 40,000 died of flu the other year and no one bated an eye it's time to live with it now.

[quote AlmostSummer21]@itsgettingwierd

Any links to scientists claiming that?

I call bullshit on it![/quote]
Professor Sir Andy Pollard

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

But your post is exactly why you cant compare this year and last @Itsprobablynotcominghome

And the OP stated about vaccines not working which isnt what is happening.

Because I agree with you for some of it - although there are 221 days until Spring so your figures of 1000s deaths per day is way out.

We do though I think need to be aware that we are likely to hover around the 100-300 amount at least per day for your 50000 deaths between now and Spring

@queenie273646

Even if you times that by 52 weeks works out just over 30,000 similar to year on year flu deaths ..... 40,000 died of flu the other year and no one bated an eye it's time to live with it now.

I’ll go out on a limb and say that any week in January next year will have 5x more deaths than a week in August.

@Quartz2208

But your post is exactly why you cant compare this year and last *@Itsprobablynotcominghome*

And the OP stated about vaccines not working which isnt what is happening.

Because I agree with you for some of it - although there are 221 days until Spring so your figures of 1000s deaths per day is way out.

We do though I think need to be aware that we are likely to hover around the 100-300 amount at least per day for your 50000 deaths between now and Spring

I’m not saying 1000s per day every day until Spring. I mean it will ramp until a peak in January or February. The bulk of the deaths will happen Dec to Feb.

You OP was to try and scare people with a scaremongering title. With the assumption that the vaccine wasn't working.

So what were you trying to achieve with your post if you think my post was so hurtful? You know there are anxious people on here so was you hoping to increase their anxiety?

I think people need to move away from thinking “that’s a lot of people that have died” to “can you imagine how many more people would have died without the vaccine”.

The vaccine is about 95% effective at preventing death. You can’t say “okay there were (for ease of argument) 50,000 deaths last winter, there should be 95% less this winter, so there will be 2500 deaths this winter”

A) different more contagious strain
B) not everyone is vaccinated
C) we ain’t locking down this time

95% - B, C, D = ??? Anyone’s guess.

We need to be kind to the op who has just posted a thread designed to scare people ?

No.

I agree with others that the comparison between the two figures isn't incredibly statistically robust, however this month's figure alone shows that:

1. We shouldn't have relaxed restrictions to the extent we did.

2. We'll be deep in the shit once schools reopen and we head into winter.

Well; don’t worry @NannyAndJohn - I’m sure you’ll be safe in your house, not doing anything or seeing anyone. 👍🏻

^^ ah, there she is

THIS is fascinating, if you're into tracking covid impacts.
First link,the power-BI app,"Weekly excess mortality in England analysis"
Excess death rates (or not) by different categories of people.

Basically the total number of people dying lately is well below expectations.

North West has excesses in late July.
So does age 24-49.
Dementia deaths are down (What's opposite of an excess, a deficit?)
Deaths in care homes are under expected.
Deaths among age 75+ are below expectations.

All-cause mortality is way down in August 2021 compared to seasonal expectations.

@NannyAndJohn

I agree with others that the comparison between the two figures isn't incredibly statistically robust, however this month's figure alone shows that:

1. We shouldn't have relaxed restrictions to the extent we did.

2. We'll be deep in the shit once schools reopen and we head into winter.

Out of curiosity at what point do you think we’ll lockdown? I assume you think we’ll need to?

How many deaths do you predict until April 2022?