Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

So if we have a highly infectious variant , and 10 million or so people mostly still susceptible, that will set back herd immunity even further, won't it?

@herecomesthsun

Little ones & young people are still part of the "herd" though.

They are not getting the same severity of illness. They can be involved in transmission, and will continue to be when schools go back, but they are not affecting hospital capacity nor deaths. There are possible vaccines for the eldest (who are likely anyway to have the highest antibodies like the 18-24 group based on recent transmission), but none for the under 12s. With no vaccine and confirmation there is unstoppable endemic transmission, what do you think is the "option" for those kids?

I'm happy to sign up to a plan if there's a sensible one, but there is nothing except living with it. What is your plan, with a timeline? What restrictions are required for all that time?

Well, we were addressing the issue of "herd immunity" in a theoretical way.

There appears to be a mathematical consideration that the high infectivity of delta puts herd immunity out of reach.

The UK's position as an outlier when it comes to vaccinating teenagers in particular is not going to help with this particular issue, as teenagers certainly can get infected in large numbers and would be part of the general population (if we don't want to say "herd") that remain susceptible.

It's interesting that only 2% of infections (pre delta) were thought to be in children, but that is apparently with the proviso that a good number of (thankfully) mild infections may be missed.

Also, I wonder, if we really push the envelope, and take away most of the few mitigations we previously had in schools, will we manage to infect more children? After all, delta seemed to take hold in schools right at the end of the summer term, with isolation for contacts etc. in place. We are about to find this out in our crowded classrooms.

As you can imagine, I don't have a magic answer to our fatigue with restrictions.

But we can certainly consider options further

• targeted use of masks (they worked very well in March in schools)
• teenagers working at home if close contacts of +ve cases
• prioritising ventilation in schools
• the JCVI are reviewing vaccination for 12-15s aren't they? (the Americans are strongly considering vaccinating primary aged children)

Little ones & young people are still part of the "herd" though.

They are but as we discussed most scientists agree that the concept of "herd immunity" is now off the table. We have to accept it is just not going to happen regardless of vaccination rate.

The only real alternative to herd immunity is endemic transmission. It will mean every single person in the world will eventually get exposed to Covid. The vast majority of us will catch it (possibly, multiple times in our life). However, with vaccines infections for most of us are expected to be moderate to mild and should become milder and milder with each subsequent re-infection. The focus therefore shifts towards protecting the vulnerable groups rather that "keeping cases low". I personally feel boosters to higher risk population should be a higher priority than vaccines for children.

In terms of cases - for endemic disease with waning immunity (assuming 2 years protection) and R of 6-7, UK should realistically be expecting to see about 80,000 new cases per day (every day). Over time many of those infections will be asymptomatic (as it is the case with cold and flu) and people will not even notice they have got Covid.

Well some people are still arguing for herd immunity on here, which is what I was initially trying to address.

I think if we accept that herd immunity isn't possible, it is still wise to pursue the German approach - widespread vaccination, precautions in place, cases kept as low as possible but society functioning and open.

As for the boosters of autumn, where are they? They would be very welcome for the most vulnerable people - and I think teenagers who want to be vaccinated, especially vulnerable ones, should be allowed this.

JVCI have suggested in the past that risk of vaccine is greater than risk of Covid for teenagers (both very very low risk)

Surely if we are accepting the virus is endemic then it weakens the argument for vaccinating that age group?

I'm not for or against, but I do think our experts have led the way on their vaccine recommendations. I know the easy choice is to vaccinate that age group, but is it the best choice for the teenagers - it may well be if there is further school disruptions for example. The damage caused by that will be much more than the risk from the vaccine etc.

As for the boosters of autumn, where are they?

The decision on boosters is again being reviewed by JCVI. Government has been pushing for them very aggressively and yes, we do have plenty of vaccines. Supply has not been a problem since April-May.

The JCVI's argument is that for an endemic disease a combination of vaccine and natural infection should give a higher and longer term level of protection than the vaccine on its own. If vaccines keep reducing risk of hospitalisation by 95%+, arguably getting a "natural booster" should be a better option in the long run.

They basically want to see more data before they are happy to recommend boosters.

herecomesthesun what precautions does Germany have in place? They've fully vaccinated a lower percentage of their population than Scotland.They appear to be dropping implementing restrictions based on case rates. Have they brought in vaccine passports to enter places? What is their policy on SI of close contacts?
Keeping society open and cases low seems impossible, especially in areas that have have had lower levels of infection up to now.

@wintertravel1980

The only real alternative to herd immunity is endemic transmission. It will mean every single person in the world will eventually get exposed to Covid. The vast majority of us will catch it (possibly, multiple times in our life).

Agreed...Though it seems many can't or won't accept the reality of this, and what it means for restrictions when they complain about festivals and the such like.

With the increased transmissibility of Delta they will now all be exposed through school, but that's better for kids than cancelling education again.

Though some haven't learnt the lesson of King Canute and believe we can hold back the Covid tide and stop Covid transmission if only we had a cocktail of improved ventilation, masks all the time, restrictions on ordinary school activities such as assemblies, and lots of deep cleans and constant sanitising...

The only real alternative to herd immunity is endemic transmission. It will mean every single person in the world will eventually get exposed to Covid. The vast majority of us will catch it (possibly, multiple times in our life)

I've wondered, more than once in the last 18 months, whether this is how the existing coronaviruses started. (Excluding SARS and MERS)
As a zoonotic virus which caused a pandemic and eventually became endemic.

OC43 a coronavirus which causes a cold, is thought to be from a cow coronavirus. With it genetically diverging from the bovine virus, at the same time as the 1890 Russian flu pandemic. Initial research was in 2005.

Some questions please data people…

Where do I look please for the estimates of 1 in — currently infected by area? I’ve looked through the OP and pinned links.

Also when there is a positive PCR or LFT logged abs reported upon in a tourist region (for example SW) do the maps and reporting indicate their current location or the usual hone location. I assume the latter? Or is it by priority box/test centre.

I expect in the SW the holidaymakers will be blamed but is it possible to discern that this from the rates by region. Or is that just locals?

gov.wales/fresh-start-new-term-investment-help-improve-air-quality-schools-colleges-and-universities

Ozone cleaners for welsh classrooms and nurseries. However a scientist just now on R4 said they’re not a substitute for good ventilation.

inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-cheek-devon-cornwall-encouraging-covid-spread-1173952

Does anyone know what, if any, restrictions will be placed on England’s schools returning. I assume mask wearing will not be required but will LFTs be needed before pupils are allowed back?

YTF2021

Yes DS tested yesterday and is going in for a in person test wednesday first day thursday he is 17 and has had 1 vaccine as have most of his mates (lots have had Covid too) I expect rates to be low in his year group this term.

Though some haven't learnt the lesson of King Canute and believe we can hold back the Covid tide and stop Covid transmission if only we had a cocktail of improved ventilation, masks all the time, restrictions on ordinary school activities such as assemblies, and lots of deep cleans and constant sanitising...

I don’t think many people think deep cleans and constant sanitising is required any longer, as it’s generally accepted that the virus is airborne. (Of course awareness of hand hygiene and using tissues properly if suffering from a cold can only be a good thing.)
However retaining some mitigations such as masks in communal areas, movement around school that limits physical contact and reducing the number of mass events such as assemblies would be useful in at least reducing a damaging surge in infections. As would portable ventilation systems (I believe soon to be introduced in Wales).
One of the few benefits of Covid seems to be the introduction of online parents’ evenings. I would add to that a reduction in whole school assemblies with a deputy head banging on for 15 min about the evils of wearing trainers to school and other uniform infractions, to the benefit of absolutely nobody.

Oh I see Jan has clarified ozone cleaners rather than proper ventilators.

[quote JanglyBeads]inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnson-cheek-devon-cornwall-encouraging-covid-spread-1173952[/quote]
The first bit made me laugh! I don’t know he sounds so angry, it may also be the lack of natural immunity SW has had low figures for much of the pandemic.

SAGE say expect a surge in Sept infections as schools go back. But new cases reported are actually people getting their first ever positive result. Reinfections are therefore excluded.

So all the kids who tested positive last autumn / winter won’t be counted in the daily stats as part of the surge if they get Covid again.

Currently reinfections estimated at 1-7% per previous posts but could this be about to spike massively and be hidden?

@MRex here’s a report on Indonesian children in July/August. At the every end it says the tide is beginning to turn (but no stats):

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-indonesia-death-rate-in-under-18s-more-than-three-times-the-world-average-12394947?fbclid=IwAR0oXBsJBVROrV4Q2dzmr5ogBfR59G2xOtpZuJT0Z0tHQI8KdBWUtNGwHzQ

@YTF2021 two in school LFTs are recommended, cannot be required. Then at home twice weekly until end of Sept when the policy will be “reviewed”.

[quote JanglyBeads]@MRex here’s a report on Indonesian children in July/August. At the every end it says the tide is beginning to turn (but no stats):

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-indonesia-death-rate-in-under-18s-more-than-three-times-the-world-average-12394947?fbclid=IwAR0oXBsJBVROrV4Q2dzmr5ogBfR59G2xOtpZuJT0Z0tHQI8KdBWUtNGwHzQ[/quote]
At the end of this it says there was a 30% mortality rate in 10-18. This can’t be right can it?

@Lelivre

Some questions please data people…

Where do I look please for the estimates of 1 in — currently infected by area? I’ve looked through the OP and pinned links.

Also when there is a positive PCR or LFT logged abs reported upon in a tourist region (for example SW) do the maps and reporting indicate their current location or the usual hone location. I assume the latter? Or is it by priority box/test centre.

I expect in the SW the holidaymakers will be blamed but is it possible to discern that this from the rates by region. Or is that just locals?

@Lelivre

R is on the healthcare pages of the dashboard

this is England
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-reproduction_number_r_and_growth_rate

This is the South West NHS region

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion%26areaName=South%20West#card-reproduction_number_r_and_growth_rate

Cases from about the data

Cases are allocated to the person's area of residence. From 16 November 2020, PHE has updated the way it records the location of people who test positive or negative for COVID-19 in England. It now prioritises addresses given at the point of testing over the details registered on a patient’s record in the NHS Digital Patient Demographic Service. The change was largely for students - ie tested positive at Uni (say Durham) but home GP still in Surrey, case initially recorded for Surrey.