Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

All were young and healthy. Everyone got Covid during the same week except the person who had already had Covid who didn’t catch it despite having to isolate with the others

So this is pretty much exactly why the rules are only isolate if ill now - because they all got ill, except the person who had had it, if we kept isolating contacts who have already had covid then the balances of harm are more against the isolator than general health.

We know there's very little chance of them catching it again at this stage, so it's almost all harm on such individuals.

today's spec date graphic for England.

and cases from Monday for each region as compared with the equivalent position last week. Significant fall in cases in SW continues to be evident.

Breakdown on the changes in cases for SW council areas.

last week represents the cases with spec dates Monday 16th to Friday 20th as reported last Saturday, and,

this week spec dates Monday 23rd to yesterday as reported today.

Further falls before schools return would be welcome.

Looking good ❤️🤞🏻

So cases in England are dropping. Obviously they will rise when schools ho back and more tests are taken but I wouldn't be surprised if after 2-3 weeks we see cases start the drop back down and level out again.

Thats a valid point about 1st wave hardly any testing so we don't know what reinvention are .
Although 1st varient seemed less transmissible than delta.
The government must know whos officially been reinfected as they don't include pepper who previously tested postive for for covid 19.
Why is zoe at 50k plus positive infection a day.
When will government update symptoms to tests.
Will Leeds and Reading cause large spike in those areas or 6ths forms/ unis?
Will back to school secondary school pick up loads cases.
My senior age kids have test this Friday.

The government must know whos officially been reinfected as they don't include pepper who previously tested postive for for covid 19.
Possible reinfection data is published by monthly PHE and is available on the graph documents here (last updated 19th August):
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

Why is zoe at 50k plus positive infection a day.
Because Zoe makes estimates based on the volunteer information that they have. They are probably correct; lots of people won't be testing or testing everyone in a family.

When will government update symptoms to tests.
They won't. They have chosen not to for whatever reason.

Will Leeds and Reading cause large spike in those areas or 6ths forms/ unis?
Yes but the spike will be nationwide

Will back to school secondary school pick up loads cases.
Yes

@Perihelion

Unfortunately I think that acquired immunity in most Scottish schools is lower than 40-70%. But give it a few weeks... At least all the kids will get it, while their parents vaccines are still effective

Many younger parents and teachers aren't fully vaccinated. The most vulnerable teachers, parents and grandparents were vaccinated more than six months ago and haven't had boosters.

My son is going to start 6th form next week. We live not far from Leeds - he didn't go to the festival but lots of others did. Chances of a smooth start to year 12? Slim I reckon. We'll be testing that theory about how long grandparents' vaccines are effective for.

@containsnuts - 6 months isn't accurate for the UK vaccinations. People in their 70s for example were vaccinated in late January or early Feb with second dose in April; that's under 4 months ago. The big CV group 6 were largely given first dose in March, with second jabs in late May / early June, so 3 months.

Also all early 20s who booked in are due second jabs in the next week. There aren't any teachers who are under 20.

We are probably at the point where the more vulnerable teachers should have been given their boosters.

In fact, on the new 8 week schedule, all over 18s would have been eligible to have received their second vaccination by now. Obviously not all over 18s would have been able to be vaccinated the first week they were eligible, but I know plenty of 18, 19 and 20 year olds who have already had both their jabs.

I know this is the data thread but DH and I had our first doses in December (Kent hotspot NHS priority). Second doses were delayed till March. DH has just had a really tough time with Covid (age 47) anecdotaly I know loads of HCPs with it. The vaccines are running out of steam.

@Ontopofthesunset

In fact, on the new 8 week schedule, all over 18s would have been eligible to have received their second vaccination by now. Obviously not all over 18s would have been able to be vaccinated the first week they were eligible, but I know plenty of 18, 19 and 20 year olds who have already had both their jabs.

Minus all the young people who have caught covid in the last few weeks and then have to wait a further 28 days.

Minus all the young people who have caught covid in the last few weeks and then have to wait a further 28 days.

True, but I thought that catching Covid gave good protection going forward which is why some countries only gave one shot and not two if a person had had Covid within the previous 6 months.

Delaying a second vaccine by 28 days in these instances shouldn't have any impact on vulnerability to catching it.

DH had his second dose early May and either did not catch it from the rest of it or had symptoms so mild, no one noticed. I had second jab at the end of May so I was rather unlucky to be hit so hard.

@MRex

Also all early 20s who booked in are due second jabs in the next week. There aren't any teachers who are under 20.

Yes, but I was referring to Scotland. As per data many 20s haven't even had first doses here. Plenty parents and teachers in that age bracket. Hopefully they won't get seriously unwell though.

They had a choice to be vaccinated if they wanted to @containsnuts; if they're young then most will be fine.

@MRex. My concern is that there is large pool of young adults who are not fully vaccinated. Many of them are teachers and parents who are now likely to catch the virus from school children and then pass it on to older or more vulnerable people in the community for whom vaccine effectiveness may be declining.

Containsnuts when I got my second jag on 1st July, NHS Lothian had already started walk in appointments for anyone over 18. Most young adults not fully vaccinated are either by choice, or Covid infection getting in the way. I've no idea if this gamble of letting it fire through the school age population is sensible, but that appears to be the policy.
7113 positive results for Scotland today, with the caveat that the figure includes a higher proportion of tests processed more than 48 hours ago due to high volumes of tests received.
I'm kind of fascinated to see how high the figures go and when they will level off, without mitigation.

[quote containsnuts]@MRex. My concern is that there is large pool of young adults who are not fully vaccinated. Many of them are teachers and parents who are now likely to catch the virus from school children and then pass it on to older or more vulnerable people in the community for whom vaccine effectiveness may be declining.[/quote]
If a teacher or young parent has decided they are not at risk from covid, that is their choice. NHS capacity needs a wary eye kept on it but I don't think restrictions are appropriate to protect those who choose not to vaccinate. I've explained why it isn't 6 months for the vast majority, but regardless we don't know yet that there is a risk of severe infection for many from "waning immunity"; antibody reductions have been seen and that can reduce leading to some symptoms, but other immune system responses are likely to kick in after 4-5 days.

The numbers for England look pretty good but what is sort of concerning is the continuous increase in prevalence in 60s+. Even in London, which has got the lowest 7-day rate across all regions with cases falling, the trend is still on the rise.

Thinking of the next few months, I am actually not concerned about schools (at least, in England). Of course, it is my highly subjective and unscientific opinion but I feel we are likely to have a repetition of the March 8th scenario where cases might go up for 2 or 3 weeks and then start falling. Schools do amplify the spread but they are unlikely to push it up to uncontrollable levels if infections in 18-29s are stable/dropping.

However, a risk of waning immunity in older age groups is something that needs close monitoring.

inews.co.uk/news/health/boardmasters-festival-new-delta-strain-cornwall-event-1172393?fbclid=IwAR2-aUt5FcrK3KDY7viFa1TJvtdyIxvkTsa6dCC5A55572GhLqZ7T1PoMD0

( - apparently there are a dozen different delta strains altogether.)

Is there any reason why a large gathering of people would “cause” a new strain?