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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 04/08/2021 22:48

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
287
Quartz2208 · 27/08/2021 20:57

I thought it was just vaccines that waned and natural immunity was still high

MRex · 27/08/2021 21:41

@Quartz2208

I thought it was just vaccines that waned and natural immunity was still high
No. Infection immunity wanes too from various research. It looks like people need multiple exposures to get immunity; that can be from vaccines, infection or mixture. Some of us will fight off subsequent exposures with few or mild symptoms, others will get more poorly. We will all be exposed repeatedly.
BanditoShipman · 27/08/2021 22:32

[quote JanglyBeads]@reastie, short answers from a non specialist:
Yes
No.

Read somewhere that the number of tests performed increased by over 100,000 yesterday, but can’t really tell form the dashboard (on a phone): is this correct and why might that be, any idea?

I think the earliest any English in-school testing starts is Tuesday.[/quote]
Testing at dd’s school (Worcestershire), started on Wednesday (25th), they’re back on the 3rd September.

BanditoShipman · 27/08/2021 22:43

@Regulus

Does that report include the fact that children from positive households will be in school?
My friend is a teacher. His son has just tested positive through a pcr. Friend is doubled jabbed. He (my friend) says if this had happened when he was back teaching at school in two weeks, he would still have been expected in each day as he is double jabbed.

I knew SI for double jabbed people had changed (from 16th august?) but hadn’t quite thought it through that with a child in the house pcr positive for covid, their (double jabbed) teacher parent/s would still be going in to teach 30+ kids???

And someone in the same situation could also be sitting next to me at work??

JanglyBeads · 27/08/2021 23:12

Ah, I hadn’t heard or read about any school starting that early, Bandito.

It appears that most people either haven’t understood that close contacts don’t have to isolate unless unvaccinated, or at least haven’t thought through the implications of this in various contexts including school.

Wakeupin2022 · 27/08/2021 23:15

@JanglyBeads

Ah, I hadn’t heard or read about any school starting that early, Bandito.

It appears that most people either haven’t understood that close contacts don’t have to isolate unless unvaccinated, or at least haven’t thought through the implications of this in various contexts including school.

I think 1st day of term is 1st Sept in Worcestershire although I doubt many if any will be back on that day.
JanglyBeads · 28/08/2021 00:32

The DfE guidance says this re when testing can start:

Settings may commence testing from 3 working days before the start of term and can stagger return.

So for a 1 Sept first day of term, that would be the 26th August?

3asAbird · 28/08/2021 07:01

Does anyone know if immunity is less with different varients.
They keep saying breakthrough Infections are rare but not sure they keeping any stat on them.
The daily figures postive cases don't include people who previously been covid postive.
So if someone had covid last winter pre jab.
They get 2 jabs then caught delta this summer.
In 6months time theres a new varient here.
Would they have great immunity from new varient or does that depend on what varient.

Genuine question I ponder. With travel a free for all. Lack quarantine double jabbed despite they can get and transmit.
Does anyone think there's High probability that we varient could take seed and take over from delta this winter?

BanditoShipman · 28/08/2021 09:55

@JanglyBeads

The DfE guidance says this re when testing can start:

Settings may commence testing from 3 working days before the start of term and can stagger return.

So for a 1 Sept first day of term, that would be the 26th August?

God knows what dd’s school is up to then, they had the one last week and have another test next week, then an induction day for year 7 on Friday 3rd. Rest of school goes back on Monday the 6th I think.
amicissimma · 28/08/2021 09:58

@3asAbird, I don't know about vaccine-induced immunity but the Zoe app told me a week or two ago that 0.6-7% of infections were possible reinfections and 0.003% of infections were confirmed reinfections.

herecomesthsun · 28/08/2021 10:06

The thing is though, that there were very few tests in the first wave. I may or may not have been infected in March 2020, I'm not entirely sure.

I also had sinusitis and pharyngitis (and a negative LFT) around July 2021. My GP later told me that I should have got a PCR as they had so many atypical presentations with delta, who had 2 negative LFTs and then a positive PCR.

I think we need more rigorous prospective evidence than the Zoe app would provide, to get the full picture on reinfections. As it is so difficult to know whether someone has had a first infection at this stage.

amicissimma · 28/08/2021 10:30

I don't think that "more rigorous prospective evidence than the Zoe app would provide" exists, partly because of the lack of testing early on.

I would have thought this would be covered in the 0.6-7% 'unconfirmed' figure.

Absent anything more rigorous, it gives a rough idea. I would say it's unlikely to be out by a huge factor. I certainly trust it more than all the claims on Mumsnet which are nothing like anything I, or anyone I've spoken to, meet in RL.

herecomesthsun · 28/08/2021 10:36

It's not hard to find figures backed by lab tested data and 'm sure there will be more high quality research forthcoming. bwww1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/delta-raises-covid-reinfection-risk-by-46-study

In an analysis of cases recorded from 12 April to 27 June this year, there were a total 83,197 people who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 11-week period covered by the study. Of those, 980 were possible reinfections.

According to the briefing, the data suggests the risk of reinfection does not increase until 180 days after the first infection.

The authors write that ‘preliminary analysis of national surveillance data finds an increased risk of reinfection with Delta, compared to Alpha’, with the overall chances around 46% higher compared to the Alpha variant.

The analysis of positive cases within the general population appears to be reinforced by a study monitoring positive cases across 35,684 National Health Service workers in England, with a rising number of reinfections in the most recent months as Delta increasingly dominated in the area.

The authors also suggest that the emergence of a new strain will likely further increase the chances of reinfection....

Dr Roeske suggests there is a level of reassurance given the low number of possible reinfection cases, which was calculated at 1.2% of the total number of cases analysed for the PHE study.

...Associate Professor Ian Mackay, a virologist from the University of Queensland, told newsGP at the time that it was not a surprise and that he believed the true number was likely to be much higher than officially recorded.

‘I suspect reinfection is happening a lot more often than we have bothered to find yet. It’ll be happening more frequently in areas where there’s lots of transmission,’ he said.

amicissimma · 28/08/2021 10:42

So this study suggests 1.2% and Zoe 0.6-7%.

Not wildly dissimilar for a 'possible' number.

JanglyBeads · 28/08/2021 10:42

Hadn’t seen this BMJ article about GB use of LFD tests before (from Feb, minor correction in June):
www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287

Piggywaspushed · 28/08/2021 10:43

I wonder about these figures, though, because there are an awful lot of people who were ill before routine testing began who were just told to ride out the storm (myself included) and now only suspect they had Covid back in the Nadine Dorries days, as I call them...

Piggywaspushed · 28/08/2021 10:46

DS's festival entry tomorrow all rely on LFTs, as does Reading and Leeds, as did Boardmasters. I have still never had a positive lateral flow!

Luckily, DS knows he is safe as he had Covid less than a month ago This is probably safer to others than a LFT.
I hope!

herecomesthsun · 28/08/2021 10:53

@amicissimma

So this study suggests 1.2% and Zoe 0.6-7%.

Not wildly dissimilar for a 'possible' number.

So double the number for lab tested data, with the proviso that the real figures may very well be a lot higher.
EducatingArti · 28/08/2021 12:17

Does anyone know? Are secondary schools asking students to do regular lateral flow tests through the autumn term, or just at the start? Is it varying from school to school or between different authorities?

Piggywaspushed · 28/08/2021 12:30

Supposed to be doing them again least til end September, across England.

JanglyBeads · 28/08/2021 12:38

DfE say the asymptomatic testing will be reviewed at end of September.

Here’s an excellent article detailing the contradictions between different pieces of current official advice, especially for employers:

westcountrybylines.co.uk/the-mobius-strip-of-government-covid-19-guidelines/?fbclid=IwAR275Nt7X3dd_V9v8zmdTqbN4qwxXgmCWN9GLL6j72x88t-I7d8QjPwsCDU

lonelyplanet · 28/08/2021 12:52

Here’s an excellent article detailing the contradictions between different pieces of current official advice, especially for employers

That sums the current situation up perfectly!!

EducatingArti · 28/08/2021 13:29

Thank you so much. That is exactly what I needed to know ( and no wonder I was a bit confused!)

EmilyDickinson · 28/08/2021 17:35

I know of a student household where one person had had Covid about 5 months before, one person was doubled jabbed and well past the second jab, the others were unvaccinated. All were young and healthy. Everyone got Covid during the same week except the person who had already had Covid who didn’t catch it despite having to isolate with the others. The person who was double jabbed was still pretty unwell as were a couple of the others, similar to ‘flu

EmilyDickinson · 28/08/2021 17:36

This was early Summer, so almost certainly delta variant