Under 30k cases today

[TheVampiresWife]

And infections falling for the sixth consecutive day.

Excellent news!

This is about cases, not deaths

I was using that point to illustrate how data is open to interpretation and isn't always as straightforward as it looks at first glance - but still, a sustained trend can't be overlooked.

Also, I fully expect the 'streak' of daily decreases to be broken today or tomorrow thanks to the weekend lag and (possibly) the result of greater mixing. However I think that more people were mixing at close quarters during the football than have been to clubs etc over the past week - the football attracted crowds from all age groups for one thing, while clubbing has a narrower appeal.

@NannyAndJohn

There is reason to think that way though - when cases look to be declining you have to ask whether the actual number of cases is declining or just the reported number of cases.

When cases are increasing you don't need to consider this.

Errr why? the logic works both ways.

Our 7 day average in Scotland peaked around 30th June and has dropped ever since. Our school finished 24th June and all schools closed by end of June.

I think you will see England follow a similar trend now. As about the only difference is we wear masks but if they were so brilliant at preventing infection there wouldn't be much variance ever!

@TheVampiresWife

Also, I fully expect the 'streak' of daily decreases to be broken today or tomorrow thanks to the weekend lag and (possibly) the result of greater mixing. However I think that more people were mixing at close quarters during the football than have been to clubs etc over the past week - the football attracted crowds from all age groups for one thing, while clubbing has a narrower appeal.

Tuesdays figures will be very telling as they usually make up for the lag at the weekend.

@ExhaustedFlamingo

There's this assumption by some that there is only a binary approach to COVID, and that reading of the stats must fall into one of two camps.

You're either straining at the leash to drop all COVID concerns and believe that it's now "time to get on with life and live with it", and that the figures irrevocably PROVE that it's no longer a threat.

OR

You're a doom merchant who is quivering in their home, wailing at every piece of news, predicting the end of the world is nigh and resolutely REFUSING to believe there are any positive indicators.

I know it's an unpopular thought but there are lots of us in the middle ground. Cautiously optimistic but realistic too. There are many reasons why the downward trend could be misleading - but hopefully not. Of course it could be genuinely good news, so let's keep our fingers crossed. Pointing out that the drop in figures has coincided with schools breaking up doesn't make you a doom merchant - it's stupid to ignore a potential correlation. But even if that IS part of the reason, maybe the extended break for schools/universities plus six more weeks of vaccinations means that by September we'll be in such a strong position that the cases won't rise back up when the kids go back. Let's hope so, and let's hope the cases - and deaths - continue to fall.

it's such a relief to read posts like this as I look on a bit bewildered by what sometimes seems to be completely binary thinking on here. I'm pretty desperate for good news - like, I think, most people - but also feel cautious about these figures as there are so many variables.

Cautiously optimistic but realistic is exactly what I feel, and what I see in my friends and family. I feel that we'll get ups and downs and that we're heading in the right direction, generally, but at a policy level there are mistakes being made which mean we might head in the wrong direction at points. I want to see those death figures falling like this every day. I am concerned that we'll see steep-ish rises and that it might be difficult for a bit. But if we don't, I'll be absolutely delighted.

God @ExhaustedFlamingo thank you for such a reasonable comment!

Another fingers crossed but reading the gloomy posts with trepidation person here.

I can’t be too Pollyanna-ish as we have had so many false dawns, but otoh it is horrible reading posts trashing everything the UK has done (no, not Boris but our vaccination roll-out or the endeavours of small businesses) and warning that life is generally over (unless you enjoy a comfortable life of isolation).

@herecomesthsun

God *@ExhaustedFlamingo* thank you for such a reasonable comment!

It really is the best, most balanced post I've seen on here in ages.

I think it's natural to seize on any positive news in all this, but it's not wise to imagine one swallow a summer makes. As I say, I'm fully expecting cases to rise again this week - but it's still incredibly good news that they've fallen so sharply this past week. Whichever way you look at it, that's fewer people getting ill and ultimately fewer dying.

@TheVampiresWife Too true, too true - cases, for some, mean serious illness or worse, often forgotten when talking numbers.

24,950 new cases today, was 39,538 last Monday.

@2X4B523P

24,950 new cases today, was 39,538 last Monday.

Excellent news!

Bit concerned for the usual terrible Tuesday figures tomorrow but another consecutive daily decrease is tremendously encouraging.

@2X4B523P that is good news and good to see a comparison with the same day last week.

@TheVampiresWife tomorrow may well be higher due to lag but it's always worth comparing with the same day the week before i.e. last Tue. If this Tue is lower than last, that's still a good sign.

I'm on holiday at the moment in Devon and although we are still being sensible, it's so lovely to be doing normal things again!

Does anyone know why the Zoe App says something completely different? Is it just estimates on there? (It says 62k cases today).

Whatever the reason, the drop in cases seems to have come as a surprise to government and scientists. Just goes to show how unpredictable the virus is.

I PROMISE I'm not coming on here to be like 'hey, sounds like good news, but how about this doom and gloom', but this thread from Prof Stefan Marciniak about the rates of positive tests is both interesting and a bit worrying:

twitter.com/Prof_Marciniak/status/1419684930238488580

Though I think those figures are a few days behind.

It would be great if we have peaked. I’d like to be able to relax and enjoy the summer. :)

Though I think those figures are a few days behind

From almost a week ago. A lot has changed since then!

@changingstages

I PROMISE I'm not coming on here to be like 'hey, sounds like good news, but how about this doom and gloom', but this thread from Prof Stefan Marciniak about the rates of positive tests is both interesting and a bit worrying:

twitter.com/Prof_Marciniak/status/1419684930238488580

Though I think those figures are a few days behind.

It would have to be something specific to the 20 - 24 age group in particular as this is the group thats had the biggest shift if there were some thing else going on.

Pondering what this could be, if this were the case. More going on holiday abroad?

Postive tests went down on the 21st, which is the last date available

Positivity, not positive tests!

@Halloweenrainbow

Whatever the reason, the drop in cases seems to have come as a surprise to government and scientists. Just goes to show how unpredictable the virus is.

Or how daft the government and “the scientists” are. Tbh there are plenty of scientists who aren’t surprised by this at all. But they aren’t the ones currently occupying sage..

@changingstages

I PROMISE I'm not coming on here to be like 'hey, sounds like good news, but how about this doom and gloom', but this thread from Prof Stefan Marciniak about the rates of positive tests is both interesting and a bit worrying:

twitter.com/Prof_Marciniak/status/1419684930238488580

Though I think those figures are a few days behind.

Unfortunately, without knowing the exact volume of people who have covid and choose to get a test, it is impossible to say whether the actual rate of infection goes up or down.

We do know that there has been a push this year to test kids in schools and even do LFT tests for grown ups (increases the number of infections detected) and now we have school holidays, trips abroad and "living with the virus", all of which leads to a decrease in the number of infections detected.

Considering we have no proper baseline to start with, it is impossible to say whether the case volume movement this year is representative of infections or not.

Excellent news and another blow to the doom and gloom merchants who were horrified at restrictions being reduced!!

Wow, 23,511 new cases today, which is very good especially for a Tuesday. Last Tuesday was 46,125 cases.