Under 30k cases today

[TheVampiresWife]

And infections falling for the sixth consecutive day.

Excellent news!

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

If numbers are going down, great. I wonder if people see it as 'over' now though so they're less likely to bother with testing and instead just treat it as a normal illness.

@TheVampiresWife How did you find the local data showing that the cases in your area are going down? We’re in a really high infection rate area too and I’d love to check if ours are going down.
Thanks for posting good news by the way. Our schools only broke up on Friday too so any local data in my area will not be affected by schools being closed.

How many re-infection cases have there been?

This is recorded and is very low. 23,105 out of a total of ~4.3 million

Yes but it’s reasonable to assume that the number of previously infected people testing positive again is increasing significantly now because none of those 23k were testing positive for the second time a year ago and it’s unlikely there were any of significance at the end of the second wave.

I imagine most of the statistics are generated by symptomatic as opposed to asymptomatic testing, so school children stopping bi weekly testing won’t be a massive effect.

If, as the ONS report, we have 92% of the population with antibodies, we must be very close to (if not reached) herd immunity.

With schools and universities on holiday, it would not be surprising if cases have (at least temporarily) peaked.

It definitely seems to be good news and, to me, increases the argument towards vaccinating older school children ahead of September.

I wonder if our numbers where higher due to people meeting up in the house or going to the pub to watch either tennis or football. Schools broke up around here Thurs and Fri, so I can't imagine that would make a big difference.

@Covidforever

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

I guess deaths would be going up because they were people who were infected a couple of weeks ago? You’d hope that in two weeks time the deaths would go down to reflect infections going down.

@TheVampiresWife

Nightclubs opened a week ago so infections should be starting to trickle through. Schools have only been closed since Friday so doesn't account for six consecutive days' decrease.

Hunt for the negatives if you will, I'll look for the positives

Apparently one of the unique things about delta is you start to show symptoms earliee than with other variants. I was reading earlier this week that it was more like two days from infection than five with previous.

If that's true then cases caught this week show now be starting to come through already.

Cases in some areas were already starting to drop BEFORE the general trend started to turn down, which i haven't seen an explanation for yet either.

The pattern is identical to what happened in Scotland too. After they left the Euros numbers started to drop. And THEN schools closed.

Schools in England only closed this week.

If reopening / we've peaked aren't causing a massive effect then by midweek we will start to have a few days of numbers.

What isnt happening though is an increase in expenential growth which in itself is interesting...

The point that isn't talked about is there is still a finite upper limit to how many people can be infected with this level of vaccinations...

With holidays coming up plus summer events from the reopening the temptation to ignore symptoms or isolate but not bother testing is greater than ever

Testing has dipped but only slightly. Not really enough to account for a (roughly, currently wanged on painkillers and I can't maths) 25k daily dip in cases from last week.

Quite sure someone will tell me I'm completely wrong but today's numbers have made me feel cautiously optimistic and by God I needed it!

@BlueSurfer

How many re-infection cases have there been?

This is recorded and is very low. 23,105 out of a total of ~4.3 million

Yes but it’s reasonable to assume that the number of previously infected people testing positive again is increasing significantly now because none of those 23k were testing positive for the second time a year ago and it’s unlikely there were any of significance at the end of the second wave.

Still it isn’t that we’ve suddenly had a drop in case numbers due to removing reinfected as pp

We are wondering if it’s the heatwave causing numbers to drop. Less people going out/ being outdoors/house windows and doors being open.

@Helpel

Schools where we are closed 9th July, many more closed on 16th. Don't get me wrong, I am pleased as anyone to see a decrease, because I'm fed up of the fear high case numbers seem to breed (despite high vax rates) but think we need to accept that this is a case of 'lies, damn lies and statistics'!

Yes, schools closed over a week or two ago in some parts of the country, so this drop could be related to that?

@Covidforever

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

Because like every other wave, hospitalisation and deaths peak later.

[quote ScarlettDarling]@TheVampiresWife How did you find the local data showing that the cases in your area are going down? We’re in a really high infection rate area too and I’d love to check if ours are going down.
Thanks for posting good news by the way. Our schools only broke up on Friday too so any local data in my area will not be affected by schools being closed.[/quote]
Might be worth searching under local data on Travellingtabby - you can get case numbers for your borough under that.

@Covidforever

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

Death numbers related to cases diagnosed a couple of weeks before. It’s completely possible that case numbers were increasing sharply two or three weeks ago but have now peaked and are decreasing, leading to an increase in deaths this week which will in turn stabilise and decrease.

Alternatively the Eeyore tendency might be correct that the drop in positive tests reflects people’s testing behaviour rather than underlying infection numbers.

In a weeks time the hospitalisation numbers will tell us which version of the truth is correct.

What isnt happening though is an increase in expenential growth which in itself is interesting...

The point that isn't talked about is there is still a finite upper limit to how many people can be infected with this level of vaccinations...

When you consider that some people were forecasting 100k cases a day way back in June, it's very encouraging.

Also with schools closing - surely that means that children will be mixing with others outside the home (extended family etc) and taking any school-begotten germs with them wherever they go? I would imagine that for the first weeks of the holidays that would be an issue with infections, and keep them fairly steady. We'd only start to see cases going down once the 'firebreak' of schools closing/reduction in in-school infections kicks in, in a couple of weeks.

[quote ScarlettDarling]@TheVampiresWife How did you find the local data showing that the cases in your area are going down? We’re in a really high infection rate area too and I’d love to check if ours are going down.
Thanks for posting good news by the way. Our schools only broke up on Friday too so any local data in my area will not be affected by schools being closed.[/quote]
If you go onto the gov.uk covid bit and type in your postcode, it gives you a breakdown for your local area.

This is the map version - you can zoom all the way into your local area if you’re in England - and on the desktop version you can scroll backwards in time to see changes.

Bugger, here’s the link
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases

@Covidforever

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

Deaths are from infections which happened anything up to several weeks ago. Also the daily death figures are not entirely for deaths on any given day - for example some of the deaths reported today will have happened a few days ago.

The drop is because many schools started shutting over a week ago, with other parts of the country finally shutting this week.

Boris et al said that the school holidays were a firebreak.

What is it you check it on please?
I check the BBC one but that looks different.

@Covidforever

Its only positive if its true, otherwise, you r just someone who will believe anything at all.

Look at how the numbers are calculated and compare like with like?

If numbers are really falling, thats fantastic but are they and if so, why have deaths gone up? (over last week)

Nearly a year and half in, and still people don’t understand that the deaths today relate to past cases, when they were rising. Honestly with a name like Covidforever I’d have thought you would have at least understood that most basic of concepts.

If you go onto the gov.uk covid bit and type in your postcode, it gives you a breakdown for your local area

I wish i hadn't - increased by 60% over last week, area next to me +88% :(

Well thank you OP, this has cheered me up a bit! I'll take the merest whiff of a sign that things might improve.