Under 30k cases today

[TheVampiresWife]

And infections falling for the sixth consecutive day.

Excellent news!

Sick of the attitude towards kids and schools.

Yes particularly towards CEV and CV children.

@Dustyboots

Our country is run by liars and charlatans

I don’t care about facts and figures - but I do care that our country is run by liars and charlatans.

Yes definitely. So the question is, is Boris lying now? He doesn't think it's all good news from now on and in.

We won't know for months or even years whether it's genuinely good news (screaming doom and gloom won't change that fact). Or whether instead lots of people have relatively mild infections, not picked up by PCR. Future Long Covid disability is what we'll need to be alert to.

Hopefully it's genuine that cases are dropping. In which case, we can definitely start to use regeneron to treat those who do still end up hospitalised. It's expensive but then if there's lower case numbers, we won't need much.

Would anyone like to take a punt on when the schools arent safe threads will commence again?

Why would they be needed? Everyone admits schools aren’t safe now. The PM talking about easing restrictions in the summer being less risky due to schools being closed, all this speculation about why cases are dropping includes discussion about the closure of schools.

The ‘Schools are Safe’ campaign of lies is over.

The discussion around schools has now moved onto whether it’s ok to deliberately allow kids to be infected with covid. The government has gone for ‘yes’ but they don’t appear to be pretending that they haven’t.

Re cases dropping - case data isn’t particularly reliable due to its reliance on testing, which fluctuates for various reasons. The really interesting data that will help us figure out what’s going on, the ONS infection survey data, will be out Friday.

@noblegiraffe

Would anyone like to take a punt on when the schools arent safe threads will commence again?

Why would they be needed? Everyone admits schools aren’t safe now. The PM talking about easing restrictions in the summer being less risky due to schools being closed, all this speculation about why cases are dropping includes discussion about the closure of schools.

The ‘Schools are Safe’ campaign of lies is over.

The discussion around schools has now moved onto whether it’s ok to deliberately allow kids to be infected with covid. The government has gone for ‘yes’ but they don’t appear to be pretending that they haven’t.

Re cases dropping - case data isn’t particularly reliable due to its reliance on testing, which fluctuates for various reasons. The really interesting data that will help us figure out what’s going on, the ONS infection survey data, will be out Friday.

They will say "schools are safe because now it doesn't matter if all the kids get covid" maybe?

I’m intrigued to see exactly what the messaging will be when people clock that kids won’t be isolating if a contact, there won’t be any staggered starts, lunches, bubbles or zones and nor will kids be vaccinated. I don’t think they’ve explained it to parents yet. Last couple of weeks of the holidays probably (and they’ll forget again that some schools go back in August).

@noblegiraffe

I’m intrigued to see exactly what the messaging will be when people clock that kids won’t be isolating if a contact, there won’t be any staggered starts, lunches, bubbles or zones and nor will kids be vaccinated. I don’t think they’ve explained it to parents yet. Last couple of weeks of the holidays probably (and they’ll forget again that some schools go back in August).

woohoo no homeschooling I think

Well it’s interesting, Herecomes, that one of findings of the isolation versus daily LFT trial, was that take-up of daily LFTs instead of the child being at home was much lower than expected. A significant proportion of parents chose to keep their kids out of school when the option was there to send them in.

I’m not sure that everyone is quite as gung-ho about sending kids in as you might expect. That was secondary, where there aren’t the childcare issues posed by primary though.

I’m intrigued to see exactly what the messaging will be when people clock that kids won’t be isolating if a contact, there won’t be any staggered starts, lunches, bubbles or zones and nor will kids be vaccinated. I don’t think they’ve explained it to parents yet. Last couple of weeks of the holidays probably (and they’ll forget again that some schools go back in August).

Most people I know are already perfectly aware of this, and are happy to send their kids back in September. So would I, if I was in the UK.

I do think they should offer the vax to kids, though.

@noblegiraffe

Well it’s interesting, Herecomes, that one of findings of the isolation versus daily LFT trial, was that take-up of daily LFTs instead of the child being at home was much lower than expected. A significant proportion of parents chose to keep their kids out of school when the option was there to send them in.

I’m not sure that everyone is quite as gung-ho about sending kids in as you might expect. That was secondary, where there aren’t the childcare issues posed by primary though.

Well lft testing daily was to protect others. Attending school when close contacts is potentially exposing your child's risk of getting covid and I think increases chance getting it

Lateral flow tests pretty horrible too.
Before xmas cases got so bad and senior school started isolating close contacts but despite my child sat within 2 metres they dident send home so I made decisions keep off and got unauthorised absence for trying keep her safe.
Shes not super vulnerable but her ashma is worse in winter and extra risk was she was taking public bus to city centre.

I have also kept my primary age kids off too although they sent home whole class but close to breakup we were go away so isolated them week 1 so we could go away week 2.
If I hadn't done that or gone away by son would have ended up with 3 separate lots of 10 day isolation within 6 weeks so 30 days.
Last March I pulled all my kids out of school before lockdown as it was clear from news in Italy at the time how bad it could be and Italy did talk about kids getting it.
America also seems to discuss at length kids and covid its only the UK who denies it.

I wish they had kept bubbles.
I don't blame parents teachers or kids having a break from testing over the summer its been a long year.
Lft were optional and not sure how many did them at end of summer term.
Primary totally exposed people were only testing when their were confirmed cases which led to more cases and parents who had vaccine and siblings catching it.
I do blame senior school transition day fir the outbreak of 11 in my sons bubble.

I don't understand how we can give them special treatment as if they covid immune.
Surely scientifically a double vaxxed adult has less chance of transmission we hope than an unvaccinated child.
Treating a unvaccinated child same as double vaxxed child makes a mockery of vaccinations.
Whats difference in risk between a 15 or 16 year old they most likely same year or class the risks are the same.
My son attends primary and daughter juniors I would say infants or ks1 has had less cases than ks2 or seniors so the argument not offering vaccines to 12 to 15 year old is weak and by time they return cases rise they differ we will miss our window to vaccinate kids as be middle winter.
I am but concerned about other respiratory illnesses that also may affect kids that are on the rise.
Masks in senior schools would minimise risks of all viruses not just covid.
I think parents will learn the hard way that no isolating kids means more infections and children getting covid causing parents to miss work so outcomes same inconvenience for them except worse as their child may feel quite poorly.
I think its natural instinct want protect kids and not want them unwell.
Pushing flu vaccines whilst denying covid is farcical.
The longer the delay might reduce some parents confidence in the covid vaccine to kids as the current messaging is its not safe yet Ireland Europe USA and Israel are vaccinating teens.
Not even sure how you take child away to France if they have be jabbed from age 12 go to cafes and restaurants.
It would be odd if France 🇫🇷 said thats fine for British kids but not French ones.

Most people I know are already perfectly aware of this, and are happy to send their kids back in September. So would I, if I was in the UK

Most people I know - including the parents of my pupils i have spoken to - are aware of the ending of bubbles, but have no or limited awareness of the fact that no close contacts in school will be identified (as Test and Trace have said they will not attempt to identify close school contacts, only those arising from contact outside school such as sleepovers) and that none will isolate.

The release of the flawed study about regular testing instead of isolation has muddied the water further, as many parents, and others including the BBC, have erroneously concluded that this - rather than zero action at all - is what will replace isolation in September in schools.

The current pre-August 16th policy of testing for identified categories of critical workers has, again, given the mistaken impression that testing will replace isolation post August 16th.

If I outlined the current policy to parents: 'In September, there is absolutely no limit to contact and mixing in schools, including e.g. whole school assemblies, but a family where all other members are actively suffering from Covid can send their child into school to sit next to your child for 6 hours a day', I am not certain that many parents would believe me, let alone be happy to do so.

Yes, cant, I've certainly seen parents on here unaware (and you patiently explaining to them) what the plan is for September (covid free-for-all), so the idea that parents all know and are happy is a stretch.

It reminds me of going back to school in September when I posted about how the media was trying to get you to think that schools would be socially distanced with pics of spread out desks and half empty classrooms. I was assured then that of course parents knew. One day back at school and the threads started 'My kid's school isn't social distancing!!!!'.

@TheVampiresWife - if course it matters. If there are less children in school then less testing was happening and so less cases picked up. Interesting that yesterday government figures had 30k plus cases, the Zoe App reporting 60k plus. Who to believe?

[quote luckylavender]@TheVampiresWife - if course it matters. If there are less children in school then less testing was happening and so less cases picked up. Interesting that yesterday government figures had 30k plus cases, the Zoe App reporting 60k plus. Who to believe? [/quote]
The government figures weren't 30k plus yesterday, and afaik (I don't use the app) Zoe goes on estimated cases, not confirmed ones.

Less testing of school children doesn't account for all of the huge dip in infections, particularly in my area where schools have only been closed since Friday.

Lots of cautious optimism from the actual experts today (as opposed to the Mumsnet 'experts' ).

[quote luckylavender]@TheVampiresWife - if course it matters. If there are less children in school then less testing was happening and so less cases picked up. Interesting that yesterday government figures had 30k plus cases, the Zoe App reporting 60k plus. Who to believe? [/quote]
But if there are less children in school then there is less mixing so cases would be lower anyway. If all children were tested through the holidays cases would be down.

[quote luckylavender]@TheVampiresWife - if course it matters. If there are less children in school then less testing was happening and so less cases picked up. Interesting that yesterday government figures had 30k plus cases, the Zoe App reporting 60k plus. Who to believe? [/quote]
Less testing, yes, but fewer positives proportionately is the key thing.

The Zoe app is only an estimate.

Wasn't the zoe apps predictions just based on eople reporting symptoms? And considering delta symptoms are the same as cold symptoms it would make sense that they think there are many more cases than there actually are with lots of colds now spreading due to lack of spread during lockdowns etc.

@noblegiraffe

Yes, cant, I've certainly seen parents on here unaware (and you patiently explaining to them) what the plan is for September (covid free-for-all), so the idea that parents all know and are happy is a stretch.

It reminds me of going back to school in September when I posted about how the media was trying to get you to think that schools would be socially distanced with pics of spread out desks and half empty classrooms. I was assured then that of course parents knew. One day back at school and the threads started 'My kid's school isn't social distancing!!!!'.

See this is the polar opposite of my experience (anecdata I know! )

But I'm well aware of the change in rules for close-contacts come September, and am fine with it.

I was also never under the impression that my kids would be in a 2m exclusion zone from any other humans once they went back to school last September.

Everyone I know shares/shared this understanding, and was fine with it.

I'd be interested to see the understanding of MN'ers - whether they're aware of how things will be in September or not and if they're happy with it? Maybe start a thread @noblegiraffe?

I know the Zoe App is only an estimate (obviously) but the difference is stark and I wouldn't put it past this Administration to fiddle the figures. So if it's true it's fantastic but I'm not celebrating yet. It's a bit like weight loss and gain. It goes on quickly and comes off much more slowly. This seems too fast.

Durr posted before I could finish - I also have absolutely NO confidence that what Bojo & co say now will be the 'rules' in schools re close contacts come september will end up being the actual case, so I'm taking it all with a pinch of salt!

I'd be interested to see the understanding of MN'ers - whether they're aware of how things will be in September or not and if they're happy with it?

Well why don't you start a thread, then siesta?

@noblegiraffe

I'd be interested to see the understanding of MN'ers - whether they're aware of how things will be in September or not and if they're happy with it?

Well why don't you start a thread, then siesta?

I'm sure far more people would respond if you started a thread about schools @noblegiraffe!

Also I think people do understand the new rules

The Zoe app has recently had to change its methodology as it was previously estimating significantly fewer cases than the official figures. It has always had to make adjustments to its data for the fact that its users aren't a random sample of the population as a whole. This has become more of an issue as vaccinations have been rolled out; app users are more likely to be vaccinated than the general population.

This was thought to be the reason Zoe was underestimating cases until recently, so they amended the way they adjust their figures. It's possible that they've gone too far the other way now but only time will tell.

I'm sure far more people would respond if you started a thread about schools

Have you taken a punt that I would start a schools thread in July then?

Next time you talk about me on a thread, at least have the balls to tag me in, eh?

I have considered starting a thread.

However, as I know the government will bring out new guidance (over-writing the old, and pretending that it was their idea all along) round about the end of August - or possibly in the first week of September, after most state schools have started - I have decided that there is no point.

When it is absolutely clear what the plan will be in reality, i will start that thread. Until then, I will continue to post the government's current plan if anyone shows signs of not having understood or known about it.