What do we do if cases rocket in September?

[ncnoclue]

If schools etc being closed means that cases massively drop and we can in fact, live normal lives. And then once they go back, they shoot up again and we can't cope.

Is the plan to keep everything else closed, just to keep schools open? So even though everyone who wants it has been vaccinated and there's no other answer, we keep the economy closed indefinitely to keep schools open?!

Certainly no scientist but surely there will come a point when pretty much everyone who was going to will have contracted Covid? Don’t imagine it will be this September but with more vaccinations and natural immunities from infection, barring resistant variants, we should see a natural end to this in the not too distant future?
The 1918/19 pandemic came to a natural conclusion without the benefit of vaccinations. Of course, thousands of very frail people die from ‘flu or complications arising therefrom every year and this is the trajectory for Covid, I think. Harsh though it sounds in these heightened times, that is the only possible realistic outcome (I believe, with CEV loved ones)

Whatever the situation this September, schools, colleges and universities really should be the very last places to close younger generations have been disproportionately hammered already.

I’ve read the article from self appointed SAGE, @NannyAndJohn.

Vaccination isn’t the only way to reach herd immunity though. Every time we encounter the SARS-COV-2 virus, our bodies mount another immune response. This happens whether we show symptoms or not. If a vaccinated person is encountering the virus and their immune system is fighting it off, that acts as a ‘booster’, effectively.

thousands of very frail people die from ‘flu or complications arising therefrom

And there you have it. A major difference (amongst many). SARS-Cov-2 isn't killing 'only the very frail'. CEV and CV groups include millions of working age people with well managed underlying conditions. They are nowhere near about to pop their clogs.

Long Covid will see others join the group.

younger generations have been disproportionately hammered already.

Yes definitely CEV and CV children, and their families. Particularly those under 12, who can't yet have the vaccine.

Now I wonder how many of the very elderly very frail regret giving up smoking. Give up, they were told....you'll die young. So they gave up, didn't die young, they grew old... then discovered that living longer isn't in fact valued afterall.

Oh Sajid. Think of all that potential tax you could bring in - if you change the message, so that people are no longer urged to cower from cigarette smoke. Personal responsibility is all the vogue now, remember.

Oh god, you are genuinely still going on about your nonsensical smoking comparison. Do you think that it'll be the 100th time you trot it out that someone will finally recognise your genius?

Are you a former smoker and struggling with it @Tealightsandd? You mention it quite a lot.

Because it can really add to the quality of your life now, not smoking. Plus you'll no longer stink like an ashtray. Always a bonus.

@HesterShaw1

Nope.

I just don't like hypocrisy. Eg. Re personal responsibility.

Quality of life. Mental health plays a (large role). The impact of stress is too often underestimated. Smoking has pros and cons.

If people and government were so concerned about quality of life, they'd start with ensuring everyone has a stable affordable home. Homelessness and insecure housing arguably impacts far more heavily on health (and society) than smoking.

Quality of life. Perhaps then, before focusing on smoking, people and government need to improve things for the disabled. Too many are left struggling facing destitution for the crime of being disabled. Such concern over public health? Yet nothing was done even when the UN condemned the UK's treatment of the disabled.

As for smell. Well it's all individual. I hate the stench of fish. Physically retch when close to someone eating it. And some people's BO...

There's a lot of Bad For You things in life. Processed food, too much sugar and carbs, alcohol, car fumes, unenvironmentally friendly flights, stress, homelessness, poverty.

When it comes to indulgences, whether food, cigarettes, alcohol, or whatever, it's about balance and (to an extent) personal responsibility.

At least smoking, unlike homelessness and destitution due to disability, is a major source of tax revenue.

@Tealightsandd

Scans have shown heart, lung, and other damage (which will explain the fatigue).

Many won't have had access to these scans yet. Standard scans are missing the damage. It's only discovered if and when a patient sees a specialist and has a different type of non routine scan.

Of course it won't be so serious for everyone, but we can't just casually dismiss the risks. Not at this stage.

We can't go around in a mad panic about it. We need to try to cautiously open up. But, cautious is the word missing from the Westminster government approach.

The way to do it is as advised by the experts around the world (including but not only those at the WHO). The importance of mitigation. Simple easy to practice measures - such as masks (and good ventilation).

Like many things in life the the key is about balance.

This

Homelessness and insecure housing is a major public health crisis.

Don't tell me government (particularly one that is telling people to 'live with' a disease that kills and disables) cares about public health.

Far better to take the income from smoking taxes and put it to good use in improving public health - genuinely affordable secure housing projects and decent support for the disabled, for example.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/long-covid-sufferer-refused-disability-24611861

@Tealightsandd - I’m not sure why you keep rubbishing our AZ vaccine? It’s highly effective against delta and beta:
www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/vaxzevria-is-highly-effective-after-one-dose-against-severe-disease-or-hospitalisation-caused-by-beta-and-delta-variants-of-concern.html
I’m more worried that I’ve had Pfizer and that it may not be as long lasting as AZ. I think mRNA recipients might be the ones more in need of a booster.

@Flowerlane

I don’t think everything will close again. The economy won’t survive being closed down again for months on end.

You’re probably right but I saw this same message repeatedly last summer too.

@RoseWineTime

You must've confused me with another poster.

The press release you posted is good news!

It looks like the AZ booster jabs I was posting about earlier have had promising results. (The link you posted is re those boosters, not the current AZ vaccine).

Looks good, going by the link, for autumn boosters.

This really doesn't seem to have been thought through. The minute the kids go back (or 18 year old Uni kids on campus) cases are going to go through the roof. Just like they did last year.

to be fair everyone's entitled to an opinion?

@RosieLemonade

Wouldn't it be nice to have a conversation without it being hijacked by Nanny and Tealights and co.

I'm so very sorry for daring to have the same opinions as the WHO, SAGE, and Independent SAGE.

@HesterShaw1

You've seen the falls in the last week haven't you? This is too soon to have been because most schools broke up last week. They are on their way down even though schools have been open.

Why, it's almost as though it's an infection curve rather than an infinite infection mountain!

Quite a few schools in some areas of the country broke up earlier. Hundreds of thousands of children were out of school, isolating at home.
www.theguardian.com/education/2021/jul/06/gavin-williamson-announces-end-to-covid-bubbles-in-schools-in-england Bubbles, year groups and whole schools closed early because of high infection levels. The idea that most children have been in school as normal until recently is wrong.

[quote RoseWineTime]@Tealightsandd - I’m not sure why you keep rubbishing our AZ vaccine? It’s highly effective against delta and beta:
www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2021/vaxzevria-is-highly-effective-after-one-dose-against-severe-disease-or-hospitalisation-caused-by-beta-and-delta-variants-of-concern.html
I’m more worried that I’ve had Pfizer and that it may not be as long lasting as AZ. I think mRNA recipients might be the ones more in need of a booster.[/quote]
I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion Tealightsandd has majority shares in Pfizer and Moderna .

At some point they need to stop publishing numbers

I think they should publish more numbers for more things. I like knowing what's going on. I'd like to know things like road deaths, cancer deaths even - informed people make better choices. I'm not suggesting putting this stuff on the news like say, Australia does with booze related road deaths at Christmas, but having very recent stats available to the public.

Simple easy to practice measures - such as masks (and good ventilation).

The good news is that the official advice on the website has been updated, with handwashing at the bottom. I mean, this will stuff over schools, whose only real mitigation method across the board has been obsessive hand washing, but the rest is good for other people. Mostly ventilation, no massive crowds indoors etc.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot "They" do publish more numbers for more things though. "They" being the Office for National Statistics. You can find out a gazillion statistics about lots of stuff on their website (incl cancer, road deaths etc).

I think they should be looking to re-jig the school year temporarily to add in "firebreaks" to limit transmission getting out of control. It was clear this spring/summer, that cases in Scotland spiralled quicker, as there was no half-term in May, which slowed things down in England.

I think a 4 weeks in, one week off strategy or similar might help keep a lid on it.