What do we do if cases rocket in September?

[ncnoclue]

If schools etc being closed means that cases massively drop and we can in fact, live normal lives. And then once they go back, they shoot up again and we can't cope.

Is the plan to keep everything else closed, just to keep schools open? So even though everyone who wants it has been vaccinated and there's no other answer, we keep the economy closed indefinitely to keep schools open?!

@starfro

Long Covid is a thing, mainly affecting those who have been in hospital with severe Covid.

For kids however it isn't.

I think what they mean is that with most viruses/illnesses, if they are bad enough to put you in hospital you are likely to suffer syntoms for a while afterwards. People on here like to act as though every person with long covid is disabled for the rest of their lives whereas it could be that they are tired for a few weeks after.

@Donationwitheverypack

I actually thinks schools open helps keep numbers down. There's better control and the kind of contact children have with each other is different in school to it is if they're meeting outside school.

Of course there have been lots of cases in school, there have been lots of cases in the community and that has meant lots of isolations, but how many of you who have had children who needed to isolate actually went on to catch anything? IME transmission within schools has been very low.

September will depend on the hospitals though, cases won't matter if the ping thing gets sorted and people aren't getting so ill

I'm not sure your logic works here. Even if it didn't spread much in schools (and I have no idea why that would be, you spend time close to loads of people inside a school), children aren't trapped in school all day everyday. They probably have similar numbers of contacts in the evenings/weekends in term-time as they do in the holidays. Most children probably have a group of friends that they spend time with outside school, be that after school, at the weekend or during the holiday. During term time they also spend time with other children at school. Most children don't suddenly have mega-parties with loads of random strangers in the holidays...

[quote ncnoclue]@SleepingStandingUp I think it was obvious I meant lockdown - everything being closed [/quote]
But that has never happened.

@NannyAndJohn

It's almost certainly going to be a case of when, not if.

And if our government still refuse to vaccinate children, we'll have no choice but to have another lockdown. Especially with flu season around the corner.

Are they refusing to vaccinate though?

Supply is very tight - particularly if, as is reported, AZ isn't very effective against Beta. They'll need boosters for the over 40s especially those who had AZ and/or the vulnerable. (AZ is still worth having, but it's not quite as good as the mRNA vaccines).

Hopefully we'll have increased supply in the autumn - if things go well with the AZ trials on children, and with their boosters tweaked to give better protection against newer strains.

@VanGoghsDog that's very pedantic

Gyms, non essential shops, hairdressers, cafes etc all CLOSED.

We both you know what I meant.

I’m not getting why people are more worried as this September we’ll have vast majority of adults vaccinated

Some cases will end in hospitalisation but far lower. Not sure why people reference past lockdowns when this is a big difference.

But that has never happened

🙄. PP I think you were supposed to say ‘non essential shops, bars and restaurants, cafes, cinemas, theatres, car showrooms, all gyms, swimming pools and indoor leisure, beauticians and hairdressers and a large number of offices’ rather than ‘everything’, to keep @VanGoghsDog happy.

People on here like to act as though every person with long covid is disabled for the rest of their lives whereas it could be that they are tired for a few weeks after.

No. It's already known to have caused long term - symptoms lasting many months - for lots of people, already over a year.

And it's not 'a bit of tiredness'. The fatigue being referred to is utter debilitating exhaustion. Fatigue doesn't mean feeling slightly sleepy.

It's known that it can cause organ damage. How many it will affect? We can't know yet. Too early to say. We certainly can't dismiss with confidence it being 'no big deal' or 'just like other viruses'.

Experts have already said that it's NOT like other viruses. Afterall, it's potentially man made in a lab. It's still under investigation whether it leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

At some point they need to stop publishing numbers

I doubt this will happen.

After all, flu figure are published weekly during the flu season (though merged with covid last season) and all notifiable diseases weekly, year round

Over 93% have antibodies now.

Really?? That's fantastic!! Is that 93% of the whole of the UK population?

Could you please provide the source for that info as I'm interested in reading about it - ta

I’m not getting why people are more worried as this September we’ll have vast majority of adults vaccinated

Will we? Not if reports are correct that AZ isn't very effective against Beta.

Then there's the question of how long immunity from vaccines lasts.

Potentially we'll need to booster jab everybody - or at least the over 40s + CV.

We can only hope that by then the Westminster government's WHO described anti science experiment won't have created a world and vaccine beating UK strain.

It's good to hope for the best and think positive. But we also need to be prepared for the worst. That's where good leadership and planning comes in. Oh...

I think biscuitsneeded has the answer. DD currently has covid, she had a positive pcr. We're all kind of thinking its going to pass through the house no matter how careful we are. If anyone else has a positive LFT, we probably won't bother doing a pcr, just isolate for the extra 10 days.

Over 93% have antibodies now.

To which strain?

And it's not 'a bit of tiredness'. The fatigue being referred to is utter debilitating exhaustion. Fatigue doesn't mean feeling slightly sleepy.

I haven't seen a study yet where fatigue wasn't self reported so it could be either a bit tired or debilitating exhaustion depending on the person reporting it.

Do they or do testing rates fall?

Donation Infection rates fall. ONS random sampling shows a fall in infection rates in school children associated with school holidays.

This is why the school summer holidays are being referred to as a 'firebreak' by the government.

@Tealightsandd

I’m not getting why people are more worried as this September we’ll have vast majority of adults vaccinated

Will we? Not if reports are correct that AZ isn't very effective against Beta.

Then there's the question of how long immunity from vaccines lasts.

Potentially we'll need to booster jab everybody - or at least the over 40s + CV.

We can only hope that by then the Westminster government's WHO described anti science experiment won't have created a world and vaccine beating UK strain.

It's good to hope for the best and think positive. But we also need to be prepared for the worst. That's where good leadership and planning comes in. Oh...

Yeh this is a negative take no doubt! Definitely not think positive

When you say not very effective against Beta what do you mean specifically? Can you talk about numbers

JCVI have been very clear that the risk benefit ratio is not favourable for children unless they have a comorbodity that puts them at risk (and they’re aren’t many of them- much, much fewer than for adults). That won’t change just because case numbers go up. And they are expected to spike in September when schools go back. I think there will continue to be a lot of disruption for kids unfortunately.

Long covid is not dependent on initial severity of infection.

I think people need to remember that teachers and school children have been testing twice weekly up until now. The fact that they currently aren't surely will have an impact on the data related to cases as those the tests picked up that were asymptomatic will now be not picked up at all.

@boomwhacker

I think people need to remember that teachers and school children have been testing twice weekly up until now. The fact that they currently aren't surely will have an impact on the data related to cases as those the tests picked up that were asymptomatic will now be not picked up at all.

True, but the drop in cases is higher than the drop in testing. And most schools didn’t finish until Friday.

Scans have shown heart, lung, and other damage (which will explain the fatigue).

Many won't have had access to these scans yet. Standard scans are missing the damage. It's only discovered if and when a patient sees a specialist and has a different type of non routine scan.

Of course it won't be so serious for everyone, but we can't just casually dismiss the risks. Not at this stage.

We can't go around in a mad panic about it. We need to try to cautiously open up. But, cautious is the word missing from the Westminster government approach.

The way to do it is as advised by the experts around the world (including but not only those at the WHO). The importance of mitigation. Simple easy to practice measures - such as masks (and good ventilation).

Like many things in life the the key is about balance.

@MarshaBradyo my understanding is that Beta is not (currently) a huge worry because Delta is so transmissible it wiped the floor with other variants.

And the boosters will be tweaked to target Beta anyway!

It is not possible to achieve 'natural' herd immunity to an inflammatory disease that can reinfect (particularly new strains).

The good news is that data so far suggests that the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) are working very well.

my understanding is that Beta is not (currently) a huge worry because Delta is so transmissible it wiped the floor with other variants.

That's what the Telegraph thinks. I don't know how they can be so confident at this early stage, but hopefully they're right.

The boosters should help a lot, once people have had them.

[quote ncnoclue]@MarshaBradyo my understanding is that Beta is not (currently) a huge worry because Delta is so transmissible it wiped the floor with other variants.

And the boosters will be tweaked to target Beta anyway![/quote]
That’s what I thought

Maybe pp will expand in why Beta is a concern with numbers

@leafygarden42

Over 93% have antibodies now.

Really?? That's fantastic!! Is that 93% of the whole of the UK population?

Could you please provide the source for that info as I'm interested in reading about it - ta

Link below, currently 91.9%in England, the data is split by nation rather than whole UK.

In England, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 91.9% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 90.5% to 93.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus (COVID-19) - SARS-CoV-2 - on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021#percentage-of-adults-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-and-percentage-of-adults-vaccinated-against-covid-19-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland