What do we do if cases rocket in September?

[ncnoclue]

If schools etc being closed means that cases massively drop and we can in fact, live normal lives. And then once they go back, they shoot up again and we can't cope.

Is the plan to keep everything else closed, just to keep schools open? So even though everyone who wants it has been vaccinated and there's no other answer, we keep the economy closed indefinitely to keep schools open?!

Even if that estimate (so guess) is correct. Which strain do they have antibodies against?

@Tealightsandd

Over 93% have antibodies now.

To which strain?

Details here;

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021#percentage-of-adults-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-and-percentage-of-adults-vaccinated-against-covid-19-in-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland

@Tealightsandd

Even if that estimate (so guess) is correct. Which strain do they have antibodies against?

If you read the full report it might tell you if you’re that interested

Ok I'll do that later but why not just answer my question? Not everyone reading this thread has the time to wade through sometimes long reports.

@Tealightsandd

Ok I'll do that later but why not just answer my question? Not everyone reading this thread has the time to wade through sometimes long reports.

What makes you think I do? I’ve done the 2 second google to find the report

There’s a contact name and email on the report, you could contact them and ask.

Sorry that didn't mean to come across so curt.

On the surface it sounds like good news, and hopefully that means there's reasonable protection against all strains. But, it's always best to be prepared for the worst - and it's a good idea to follow WHO advice in taking easy and sensible mitigation measures.

Depends how full up hospitals are and if they still have capacity for normal treatment alongside higher covid cases. If there's a risk of cancer, heart ops etc being delayed I hope some restrictions come back.

Whoever said the 'the government refuse to vaccinate the kids' maybe because they do not feel enough research has been done yet?

Adults are still isolating now even though they are double jabbed so what difference will that make to the disruption of schools!

It’s not so much the government but JCVI on vaccine allocation

Here is context and decision www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-jcvi-statement/jvci-statement-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-and-young-people-aged-12-to-17-years-15-july-2021

Cross posted.

Sorry. I'm a bit tired (not fatigued) and snappy today.

Perhaps I'll do some government report bedtime reading later. That should work better than counting sheep.

That was for LawnFever

Why do ons use an estimate of % adults who’ve had one vaccination (which the antibody figures are modelled on) when the government release official counted figures?
On 24/6 official figures 82% of adults in England had had first vaccine. ONS have ‘modelled’ over 90%. So their estimate for antibodies may be a bit optimistic, but still a decent proportion

What do we do if cases rocket in September?

Nothing. Remind those who are vulnerable to take appropriate precautions for themselves.

My worry is the data out of Israel showing the steep drop in immunity 3 to 6 months after 2 doses of Pfizer. Unless we get boosters into people pretty quickly we will be in trouble the winter.

@Indigopearl it's still keeping people out of hospital. It's reducing the spread that drops.

@Indigopearl

My worry is the data out of Israel showing the steep drop in immunity 3 to 6 months after 2 doses of Pfizer. Unless we get boosters into people pretty quickly we will be in trouble the winter.

I thought the data showed that, whilst people were getting breakthrough infections, the Pfizer vaccine was still working well at preventing serious illness and death?

Remember too that Israel is only about 55-60% fully vaccinated. (Unless things have very recently changed).

I think the news so far on the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna), and perhaps the Johnson and Johnson too, is very reassuring.

Hopefully it will be the same for AZ (particularly if people have the tweaked boosters).

Talking of vaccines, what's happening with Novovax? Also Valneva?

@Indigopearl

My worry is the data out of Israel showing the steep drop in immunity 3 to 6 months after 2 doses of Pfizer. Unless we get boosters into people pretty quickly we will be in trouble the winter.

Yep. Herd immunity is now basically impossible without boosters for everyone at least twice a year.

Yep. Herd immunity is now basically impossible without boosters for everyone at least twice a year

Stop making things up.

@Ifitquacks

Yep. Herd immunity is now basically impossible without boosters for everyone at least twice a year

Stop making things up.

Might be worth having a read of this, from a prominent scientist on Independent SAGE:

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/16/kit-yates-how-can-we-reach-herd-immunity/

Not necessarily. Data on mRNA vaccines looks quite positive so far (and touch wood re the AZ tweaked boosters). Possibly there might be the need for one booster and that's it. We don't know yet. Of course it would be a good idea to, in the meantime, have in place some simple and easy mitigation measures (like masks and good ventilation) - to reduce the risk of a world and vaccine beating strain developing.

We can't rely on 'natural' herd immunity, no, particularly not with new strains mutating and the chances of reinfection. But we might be able to get there with vaccines especially (but perhaps not only) the mRNA type.

Gyms, non essential shops, hairdressers, cafes etc all CLOSED

a. all this will do is kill the economy. People wont comply with not seeing family again especially at Christmas and/or will start wondering what the point of the vaccines is.
b. they had better not start moaning about people gaining weight then.

Even if we do need annual boosters, it's not the end of the world. We already have annual flu vaccines. It would perhaps end up similar. NHS for the vulnerable, available privately for everyone else who wants one.

It's also not the worst thing to be a bit more like East Asia in winter flu season - normalising the wearing of masks in crowded enclosed spaces when ill (out of courtesy to others). It would be helpful anyway to people who are vulnerable to other viruses. It was always a good idea. Plus, with rising awareness of the harmful impact of pollution, masks serve a dual purpose.

Gyms, non essential shops, hairdressers, cafes etc all CLOSED

Far better to have them open but with mitigation measures. Eg. Masks and good ventilation.