Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

I’m feeling cautiously optimistic too.

I’m sure someone will be along soon to tell us all about how we’ll be in full lockdown by September though

I am also cautiously optimistic.
Just wanted to say...before I am told otherwise.

I think it might be a bit bumpy, but atm it's looking good.
Last Saturday was the highest day of cases reported in this wave, so tomorrow will be telling.
Of course the usual suspects will be along in a bit to inform us all about how we'll be at 100000 cases by a week on Monday and its because we're not testing as much don't you know (despite the drop in cases being a larger percentage than the drop in tests).

I’m really hoping that cases are going down, but I’ve got a horrible feeling it’s people ignoring symptoms and not testing en masse in fear of having to cancel holidays.

I’m definitely not a doom monger! Just an inkling.

@littlepeas

I’m definitely not a doom monger! Just an inkling.

Yes, I wondered that too. Not just holidays but because people want to avoid self-isolation.

I did wonder if people are not testing because of planned holidays too. Obviously highly irresponsible and after reading threads on here and AiBU I’d be really worried if I was going on a U.K. holiday to a holiday park or busy place as I dread to think how many kids will be running around with Covid as the parents didn’t want to spoilt their holidays

Also now kids arent in school there will be a lot less testing and probably less spreading. September will tell (like last year!) With spreading planned for and no isolation for school kids.

I very much doubt people will test kids colds and coughs if they weren't required to for school/nursery etc.

I would be happier if the weekly rolling figure was showing a downward trend but it is a start.

I was quite excited when I read the headline, but the article reminds us that the effects of the easing on 19 July will not yet be seen in the data. I know I've mixed a lot more this week than I had previously, albeit mostly outdoors and trying to keep some distance.

Fingers crossed for this time next week.

As we only opened up 5 days ago, I assume there will be a rather large surge in the next week or two.

@LizzieSiddal

As we only opened up 5 days ago, I assume there will be a rather large surge in the next week or two.

But how many people suddenly increased their social interactions on "Freedom Day"?! I don't imagine it will have much of an impact at all... but we'll see soon enough.

Schools could be a big factor though. It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of cases...

But how many people suddenly increased their social interactions on "Freedom Day"?! I don't imagine it will have much of an impact at all... but we'll see soon enough.

I think a lot actually and it actually started at the weekend. I was at a pub with a band last Friday and for the first time there was dancing, although there shouldn't have been.

I was at a funeral on Monday, a popular chap where the original arrangement was 30 people only in the chapel with others lining the road outside, but on the day, everyone was allowed in, about 80 people. Afterwards it was back to the family home, with plans last week for only 30 in the garden, but on the day the widow was able to have everyone back.

And tomorrow I'm going to parkrun, outside and "safe", but a much bigger crowd than I've been in for 15 months.

But how many people suddenly increased their social interactions on "Freedom Day"?! I don't imagine it will have much of an impact at all... but we'll see soon enough.

didn't you see the pictures of nightclubs? They've been shut for the last 15 months.

Yes, I think indoor mixing has increased significantly.

They may continue down, they may turn round and go up or they may bounce about a bit, or even a lot. But I would say that any downward movement is more cause for optimism than continous upward movement.

I think it's a bit early to tell but it would be nice to think they are stabilising. Nightclubs are open now but schools are closed. Maybe the two will balance each other out.

Possibly starting to get a positive impact from the extra weeks of vaccinations

@lannistunut

But how many people suddenly increased their social interactions on "Freedom Day"?! I don't imagine it will have much of an impact at all... but we'll see soon enough.

didn't you see the pictures of nightclubs? They've been shut for the last 15 months.

Yes, I think indoor mixing has increased significantly.

True, but how many people went to nightclubs last weekend? Probably a fraction of 1% of the population. And those that did would be unlikely to be the types who'd have restricted their socialising to meeting a lone friend in a garden the day before.

I'm not saying 19 July made no difference - clearly it did - but I don't think it's as significant as some are making it out to be. For the vast majority, very little changed in terms of social interactions from the week before.

Not surprised numbers are falling when they have shut down lots of testing centres, including the ones around where I live and the only option now is to travel 25 miles to get one.

This has also been happening elsewhere in the country. For many living outside big cities now the only option is to do a postal test which in my case last week took 5 days from ordering to result (test was negative) or just assume you have it and not bother to test.

I am led to believe from my daughter 21 and son 24 that many nightclubs have not reopened but are expected to from this weekend

I doubt that "freedom day" will be that influential.

I'm parkrunning tomorrow... but I've been at the juniors each week for 3 months doing things like barcode scanning. It's all outdoors, the group quickly dissipates. People are less likely to go if they feel a bit off compared to other actions.

Nightclubs are a greater risk, but they are fairly niche in society and that's the age group that's already been highest.

Mostpeople aren't significantly changing their behaviour and most venues are maintaining a lot of their policies and tweaking to make them more workable.

Many of England's schools broke up this week so they won't be showing on the data just yet.

From previous patterns of a wave starting off, we are naturally reaching a plateau/ peak anyway. Many earlier areas on the previous trends found that they hit their peaks judt before increased restrictions could show an impact, although the restrictions showed an effect on areas lagging behind.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Possibly starting to get a positive impact from the extra weeks of vaccinations

Quite possibly... we know that immunity increases with time, so it's not just the number of jabs, it's the length of time people have been jabbed for.

The only thing that is helping me is Scotland has come down over a while and they haven’t introduced lockdown so it does seem possible to turn the case numbers without lockdown can England follow? Obviously we have opened up more but Scotland isn’t shut down by any means.

so early but I don’t think some optimism is totally misplaced if you are inclined that way!

A quick skim of the numbers shows that since 21 June there’s been over 3 million first jabs and over 5 million second jabs

@AlecTrevelyan006

A quick skim of the numbers shows that since 21 June there’s been over 3 million first jabs and over 5 million second jabs

And those jabs are I would suspect are disproportionality among young people who both mix more and have been more likely to test positive in this wave. That combined with a large number of people isolating - particularly perhaps school children, might explain it?

Lets hope the next week shows on average a downward trend, then perhaps we can feel more positive.