Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

@PeonyTime

Great that average numbers are coming down, but that hides a multitude of variation. Rates here are still rising, and fast. Until the drop can be replicated across the country, and sustained this isnt over. Sorry for the negative message, but it seems like every other message I get from friends right now us another positive result.

Looking at most places they have seen a sharp rise in cases with delta then a fast drop soon after the peak.

So yes some places may still be rising, but it doesn't mean that the country as a whole hasn't past its peak.

It is good to see numbers keep dropping - much better than the alternative. Fingers crossed that it lasts.

Excellent news. Numbers great again today. I can’t wait for what the lockdown enthusiasts come up with next, if it turns out the loosening of restrictions coincides with the downwards spiral ☺️

I think we should not have gone to step 4, due to high cases, so maybe that makes me a lockdown enthusiast

If I am wrong and cases keep falling I will gladly say I am wrong.

But I do suggest that there has already been a lot of hubris during this pandemic, and the unlocking is not yet one week past.

So any fall not caused by falling testing is good, but I do think using phrases like 'downward spiral' so soon could be counting chickens. My view is we are in a 'fingers crossed' period.

People have stopped testing because they don't want to have a UK based holiday cancelled. If they think that cases now in the vaccinated are mild, and child cases are mild, then they can just go on holiday anyway. No need to test.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

People have stopped testing because they don't want to have a UK based holiday cancelled. If they think that cases now in the vaccinated are mild, and child cases are mild, then they can just go on holiday anyway. No need to test.

Yep. Also, the football spike is over and the weather has been warm. There is no scientific underpinning for why numbers would continue to fall over the next few weeks unfortunately.

@Tuba437

Hospital admissions in Scotland have dropped which could be a great sign as their decline started a couple of weeks before ours.

That is good. I think hospital admissions going down - which they could now in a couple of weeks- would be the proof of the pudding. If cases really are going down rather than people being put off testing.

If number of tests are down, but positive cases up, doesn't that just mean it is down to reduced testing?

That is the situation on the dashboard today.

I can't get the dashboard to update - saying there's a delay - have I missed something?

The dashboard hasn't been updated yet has it?
Anyhow, yesterday cases were down by 10% more than tests were. So although tests are down, cases are down by a relatively higher percentage

Yep. Also, the football spike is over and the weather has been warm. There is no scientific underpinning for why numbers would continue to fall over the next few weeks unfortunately

And what will you say, then, if they do?

I was just looking at the weekly numbers, it said tests down 5%, cases up 11% on the weekly.

Tbh I am always reading that bloody page wrong somaybr it is me

Yes I won't be happy until the first 3 are in the black.

Yep. Also, the football spike is over and the weather has been warm. There is no scientific underpinning for why numbers would continue to fall over the next few weeks unfortunately

We also need to bear in mind that the football season is just beginning. You may not have the big matches but it definitely isn't over.

Cases now green rather than red on weekly count. Now that is positive. Hopefully hospitalisation and deaths will follow.

There's a very positive article about how the virus is losing its potency in the Times today

Yes, surprising to see the Times so positive.

I want to give it a week or so for the post football/school closure effects to be over before I start to think this wave might have peaked.

But we seem to be in a better position than we could be at the moment.

@Donationwitheverypack

There's a very positive article about how the virus is losing its potency in the Times today

Is that the same one that has its own thread at the moment or another?

It's all about the hospitalisation numbers, the outcomes of those who are admitted and deaths though, surely? Covid won't cease to spread, what matters, is that when people catch it, they're unlikely to need medication intervention or die! Obviously the efficacy of the vaccinations are still be to proven.

And on cue---hospitalizations are also falling in a similar way to cases.

@user1477391263

And on cue---hospitalizations are also falling in a similar way to cases.

❤️

Don;t think this will be a big impact on numbers, but whilst we are onthe subject of stats: twitter.com/Peston/status/1419233632993095689

[quote lannistunut]Don;t think this will be a big impact on numbers, but whilst we are onthe subject of stats: twitter.com/Peston/status/1419233632993095689[/quote]
This is trivial.

It's a temporary respite, the calm before the storm if you like.

The main reason for the catastrophic rise in cases was the football, which ended a few weeks ago. So there was a period between the final and the Big Reopening where contacts (and hence infections) decreased slightly.

Additionally, a lot of -selfish idiots- people are no longer testing because they don't want to have to isolate.

Throughout the next couple of weeks we'll all see the effect of the Big Reopening, and exponential growth will unfortunately be back. I think everyone knows this, even if they don't want to admit it.

It's like that day about a month ago where we had zero deaths - ok to be positive about it, but we still need to understand that it's just a blip.

The main reason for the catastrophic rise in cases was the football, which ended a few weeks ago. So there was a period between the final and the Big Reopening where contacts (and hence infections) decreased slightly.

The football finished 2 weeks ago today. Any surge as a result would be at its peak now.