Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

@Donationwitheverypack

The main reason for the catastrophic rise in cases was the football, which ended a few weeks ago. So there was a period between the final and the Big Reopening where contacts (and hence infections) decreased slightly.

The football finished 2 weeks ago today. Any surge as a result would be at its peak now.

But cases aren't simply rising more slowly, they're falling. The logic behind what you seem to be saying is without the football, cases would have started to fall sooner!

@NannyAndJohn

It's a temporary respite, the calm before the storm if you like.

The main reason for the catastrophic rise in cases was the football, which ended a few weeks ago. So there was a period between the final and the Big Reopening where contacts (and hence infections) decreased slightly.

Additionally, a lot of -selfish idiots- people are no longer testing because they don't want to have to isolate.

Throughout the next couple of weeks we'll all see the effect of the Big Reopening, and exponential growth will unfortunately be back. I think everyone knows this, even if they don't want to admit it.

It's like that day about a month ago where we had zero deaths - ok to be positive about it, but we still need to understand that it's just a blip.

Let's see shall we.... You may yet be right, but for someone who's predictions have fallen short over the past few weeks you seem extremely confident!

But has there actually been a big reopening?

Nightclubs and Theatres have been allowed in England yes.

But the others? Masks and Social Distancing - as I have said before I have been away this weekend and for the most part these still happened. People definitely either wore masks, kept their distance or both.

For how many on here has life changed from the 18th to the 19th July?

Weddings etc were able to occur before that. We have been seeing the effects of a lot of things reopening before the 19th as well

They have changed how they count cases too...
twitter.com/Peston/status/1419233632993095689?s=19

[quote ConfusedFox]They have changed how they count cases too...
twitter.com/Peston/status/1419233632993095689?s=19[/quote]
Not true if you read the comments it’s widely debunked. It’s always been clear that only 1st covid cases are counted and the amount of reinfections are tiny.

@NannyAndJohn

It's a temporary respite, the calm before the storm if you like.

The main reason for the catastrophic rise in cases was the football, which ended a few weeks ago. So there was a period between the final and the Big Reopening where contacts (and hence infections) decreased slightly.

Additionally, a lot of -selfish idiots- people are no longer testing because they don't want to have to isolate.

Throughout the next couple of weeks we'll all see the effect of the Big Reopening, and exponential growth will unfortunately be back. I think everyone knows this, even if they don't want to admit it.

It's like that day about a month ago where we had zero deaths - ok to be positive about it, but we still need to understand that it's just a blip.

Let’s see. Personally I think we are over the spike and heading downwards.

@Quartz2208

But has there actually been a big reopening?

Nightclubs and Theatres have been allowed in England yes.

But the others? Masks and Social Distancing - as I have said before I have been away this weekend and for the most part these still happened. People definitely either wore masks, kept their distance or both.

For how many on here has life changed from the 18th to the 19th July?

Weddings etc were able to occur before that. We have been seeing the effects of a lot of things reopening before the 19th as well

Many theatres were open before 19th. I went to a show in the West End the previous week and though masks were required throughout the performance and there was a spare seat between groups, it was nonetheless about 80% full (despite the rules being 50% i believe).

I think the main reason to not count chickens is these numbers bear zero relation to what SAGE predict, which would be quite weird.

@lannistunut

I think the main reason to not count chickens is these numbers bear zero relation to what SAGE predict, which would be quite weird.

To some of us that’s not actually surprising at all though .

We're not even close to the peak of this yet- schools are closed so less testing, heatwave last week so less mixing indoors, large numbers of people isolating anyway so less mixing etc..

@GingerandTilly

Numbers have gone down because schools ha e closed in Scotland and many in England have also been closed for the past week as well. If numbers stay down after September then that would be reason for optimism. Currently I think it is premature.

This. Case numbers started to fall in Scotland about 2 weeks since schools broke up. I'm not convinced at all that it will stay that way when schools go back in August!

Scotland peaked around 30th June, and there is between 1-2 weeks lag between infections and positive cases. Stop grasping for simple explanations- there are none- and stop blaming everything on children/ schools.

Stop grasping for simple explanations- there are none

Indeed. Odd that all the people who believe it’s totally obvious what’s happening here mysteriously failed to predict it happening…

Cases still falling here in Scotland (as are hospital admissions, as is test positivity rate). Hopefully all the other UK countries will see the same.

twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1419562516657676290
From Twitter:
"I’m scratching my head at people insisting it’s to early to see the effect of “don’t tear the pants off it” day on July 19th, but think the fall is mainly due to schools closing for summer, most of which closed on July 23rd…??"

I think it is really hard to unpick all the different factors.

Schools progressively closed from early July (private schools first), but, because of isolations, did so in a piecemeal rather than 'big bang' way. So a school with a published end of term date on, say, the 23rd, may have in fact been closed to the majority of pupils a week earlier, and to a significant minority for several weeks.

Football will have had an effect (noticeable that Wales has had a rather different pattern of cases).

Progressive openings may have had an effect, but again this may have been mitigated by widespread isolations and caution given the rapidly rising case rate (so a fall now may in fact by itself trigger a further rise, as more people feel confident to go out to larger events).

Weather has an impact on the choice between indoor and outdoor activities.

Testing is likely to decline, for 2 reasons - schools no longer asking for 2 LFTs a week, and also not picking up symptomatic cases and asking for tests (yes, we have not always been successful in asking parents to have their children tested, but some at least have been prompted to test by a child being sent home); and also the wish not to find out about a positive before a UK holiday.

The difficulty in understanding it also makes it difficult to enjoy - the lurking feeling that some mistake may be found, and also its very unlikeliness meaning that we cannot predict when it will reverse.

But lots of schools, especially where rates were high shut earlier than 23rd...

I'm keeping everything crossed that cases will keep coming down over the next couple of weeks but I'm realistic that they probably won't. Think it's a combination of-

-Schools closing for summer holidays and less testing taking place over the days before closing/lots of absences due to isolation
-Hot weather= more outdoor mixing
-Lots of adults isolating- these people were most likely to be out and about mixing anyway e.g if you have to isolate you're likely to be socialising more, working out of the house etc..

In a nutshell, I don't think Delta is finished with us yet. If herd immunity is even possible with Delta, we haven't reached anyway near the threshold for this, given that vaccines aren't as effective at preventing infections and about 55% of the UK population is fully vaccinated.

I would say that schools that went from fully open to shut on 23rd were a tiny minority (on a national level), as LA-determined end of term dates were, for many areas, on other dates between 16th and 21st, even before you add in the partial Covid closures.

Lots of school pupils and families not testing any more.
Lots of people deleting the app.
Lots of people choosing not to take a test because it will scupper their plans for a holiday.
In a small part of the media [can't remember where] it was reported that their was an issue with the labs so many cases may not have been included yet.
I would say that the case numbers are now not accurate. It will be more to do with admissions, and hospitalisation.

As for schools, I do follow indie sage and the highest case numbers were in schools esp secondary schools that were driving infections.

Primary schools to a lesser extent.
At the end of the day, I will be glad if things go back to some kind of normality. Just think it is way to early to predict it.

I would say that the case numbers are now not accurate.

I agree with this. One of the issues is the government has refused to update the testable symptoms even though Delta presents differently, and also it presents differently in vaccinated people.

I know we all are depserate for good news but this isn;t herd immunity suddenly kicking in.

@vaxmeup

I'm keeping everything crossed that cases will keep coming down over the next couple of weeks but I'm realistic that they probably won't. Think it's a combination of-

-Schools closing for summer holidays and less testing taking place over the days before closing/lots of absences due to isolation
-Hot weather= more outdoor mixing
-Lots of adults isolating- these people were most likely to be out and about mixing anyway e.g if you have to isolate you're likely to be socialising more, working out of the house etc..

In a nutshell, I don't think Delta is finished with us yet. If herd immunity is even possible with Delta, we haven't reached anyway near the threshold for this, given that vaccines aren't as effective at preventing infections and about 55% of the UK population is fully vaccinated.

But what part of the 45% have had:

A single dose (+14%)
A single dose + prior exposure to covid (?)
Covid in the last year? (?)

I’d say quite a few.

Cases are still rising in NI and a public call was made for healthcare workers as hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid patients.

@neveradullmoment99

Primary schools to a lesser extent. At the end of the day, I will be glad if things go back to some kind of normality. Just think it is way to early to predict it.

No, Boris quite clearly, when he set out his roadmap driven by dates not data, stated that each step was irreversible and after freedom day we would be completely back to normal, so here we are.