Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

There is a difference between the number of people actually infected and the number of people officially infected.

This may be an under-representation - lack of capacity, lack of access, strict criteria for testing etc

Or an over-representation - high cycle threshold etc.

This does not alone represent risk so you can't say that less people are infected therefore it's a safer environment eg for D.C. to go back to school.

The more that people assume they will be mildly or asymptomatically infected the more self selection bias will be introduced. Especially if sanctions are forthcoming. That is why random samples give a better picture.

Another drop today! We are definitely going in the right direction, I hope!