Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

@3asAbird

Testing is down 343k in 3 days 111k of those are PCR tests

Even with a positivity rate of around 11% thats around 40k (possible) missing cases. Yet cases are down 64k on the last 3 days.

So even if the decline isn't as fast as it looks, it's definitely declining.

(Potential doom monger here so please avert your gaze if likely to be offended). I thought the aim of reopening now was to encourage the spread and build heard immunity in summer in order to avoid an autumn/winter wave? If people aren't infected and spreading now they'll just do it autumn/winter which is more disruptive and potentially worse in terms of NHS pressures?

When have I specifically been pessimistic?

Hilarious.

I thought the aim of reopening now was to encourage the spread and build heard immunity in summer in order to avoid an autumn/winter wave

Yes, that and appeasing the CRG (right wing tories) but then they got scared about the pingdemic and the NHS being overwhelmed so they started all the rhetoric about being cautious, and took out ads telling people to wear masks, in an attempt to make the peak flatter and longer (squashing the sombrero, they called it last year). Then other factors came along too (end of Euros, schools closing, heatwave) which have actually caused cases to drop (probably).

It seems that it’s really hard to know what will happen next. Maybe cases will continue at a lower level until there is temporary herd immunity for the autumn/winter or maybe they will continue to drop off, we won’t reach herd immunity and there will be an autumn/winter surge. There’s also the possibility of a new variant, to which we have reduced immunity, causing another major outbreak.

@Halloweenrainbow

(Potential doom monger here so please avert your gaze if likely to be offended). I thought the aim of reopening now was to encourage the spread and build heard immunity in summer in order to avoid an autumn/winter wave? If people aren't infected and spreading now they'll just do it autumn/winter which is more disruptive and potentially worse in terms of NHS pressures?

This is why I think it unlikely it has just magically all got better. We were only unlocking now in the face of a moderate shitstorm to avoid an even bigger shitstorm in autumn.

I just feel 'and then Covid went away and they all lived happily ever after' seems too good to be true?

When have I specifically been pessimistic?

I've just been going off the data the entire time.

A lot of people consider the data itself to be biased and pro-lockdown

@lannistunut

When have I specifically been pessimistic?

I've just been going off the data the entire time.

A lot of people consider the data itself to be biased and pro-lockdown

Almost 18 months into the pandemic, the term "exponential growth" still seems to flummox a lot of people.

@Halloweenrainbow

(Potential doom monger here so please avert your gaze if likely to be offended). I thought the aim of reopening now was to encourage the spread and build heard immunity in summer in order to avoid an autumn/winter wave? If people aren't infected and spreading now they'll just do it autumn/winter which is more disruptive and potentially worse in terms of NHS pressures?

That's the worry.

It's looking more and more likely that it's always been schools responsible for the bulk of infection, and things will get very nasty when they go back. Just in time for flu season as well.

Also still people do not get the time lag between:

• changes to rules and case rates
• cases and hospitalisations
• hospitalisations and deaths

Obv things have changed now due to vaccine but in the second wave people were still saying 'well deaths don't seem that high' whilst scientists were screaming 'in three weeks time there will be xxx deaths per day!!!!'

Sorry, my c&p failed, that was from another thread, I was trying to say:

It's looking more and more likely that it's always been schools responsible for the bulk of infection, and things will get very nasty when they go back. Just in time for flu season as well.

yes this is really owrrying.

And the fact we are not vaccinating kids is not going to help, them or the wider community.

Almost 18 months into the pandemic, the term "exponential growth" still seems to flummox a lot of people

It's on my MN Covid Bingo Card.

I think people are no longer getting tested if they have mild symptoms.

I've just been going off the data the entire time.

But it was ‘noisy’ 😵‍💫

@TheKeatingFive

I've just been going off the data the entire time.

But it was ‘noisy’ 😵‍💫

Ah yes 'noisy data'. Has to be noisy.

Maybe it’s The Youth? Case rates in Scotland in the latest wave were highest in the 20-24 age group, peaked first there (with other age groups following soon after) and have declined fastest there. Delta running out of new hosts in a group with increasing vaccination levels and increasing immunity after infection?

Can’t blame it on nightclubs as they’re still not open here, so it’s probably TikTok or something.

It’s funny how only last week, everything was absolute doom and gloom and there was talk that freedom day shouldn’t go ahead. Now things have turned on their head and everything’s looking much more positive again! It just goes to show the unpredictable nature of the virus I suppose?

A woman on the ITV News earlier (didn't catch her name or qualifications) said 'anything could happen'. Not scientific but she's not wrong.

THe problem has always been @NannyAndJohn is that exponential function is best used for simple dynamical systems and in the pandemic there were so many variables it was never as straightforward as JUST understanding exponential growth.

So many predictions were made simply on doubling times and when it looked likely and not taking into account everything else.

@Halloweenrainbow

(Potential doom monger here so please avert your gaze if likely to be offended). I thought the aim of reopening now was to encourage the spread and build heard immunity in summer in order to avoid an autumn/winter wave? If people aren't infected and spreading now they'll just do it autumn/winter which is more disruptive and potentially worse in terms of NHS pressures?

Yep, I've been thinking this as well. The drop in cases over the last week has been quite sharp and sudden instead of levelling off slowly which suggests it's more to with the Euros finishing, schools closing, less testing etc...than genuine herd immunity.

It's worrying as it means we're likely to see a huge spike in September when schools and Universities reopen. Will be interesting to see how Scotland fares next month when their schools reopen.

@NannyAndJohn

That's the worry. .It's looking more and more likely that it's always been schools responsible for the bulk of infection, and things will get very nasty when they go back. Just in time for flu season as well.

Never thought you'd be worried that people aren't get Covid over the summer!

At recent previous points there has been a correlation with the R number and the number of positive tests. So R number lower than 1 with a decline and R number greater than 1 with an increase.

There has also been a correlation with Zoe estimates, ONS and official figures. Zoe current estimates based on symptomatic cases (with a wider range of symptoms) confirmed by PCR is around 62,000 cases a day and a national R of 1.1. Official gov.uk R in my area is 1.3 - 1.5. Also the percentage of tests that are positive is still around 11%. Declining cases are usually correlated with declining positivity rate.

Given all the other data, a decline in cases does not make sense and is out of step.

As there has not been a change in the criteria of symptoms required for PCR, the decline in LFT, given that PCR is done with a positive LFT without having to meet the symptom criteria, may be skewing data.

Given that posters were calling for case rate to be ignored or even not reported last week and arguing that only hospitalisation and death rates matter, it is ironic the opposite seems now to be the case and we are told to ignore rising hospitalisation and death rates and focus on case numbers.

If I were being cynical I may think that focusing on anomalous data of declining cases maybe giving a nudge to those of us still being cautious and continuing to wear masks and social distance.

@Quartz2208

THe problem has always been *@NannyAndJohn* is that exponential function is best used for simple dynamical systems and in the pandemic there were so many variables it was never as straightforward as JUST understanding exponential growth.

So many predictions were made simply on doubling times and when it looked likely and not taking into account everything else.

Yes people in their haste to sarcastically demonstrate their understanding of exponential functions manage often to demonstrate their lack of understanding of how this is incorporated into the various possible models

I would have thought it was better to go into September with lower figures having been infected (so I am entirely happy if fewer people are getting ill). The NHS are apparently at capacity in many places as it is.

We don't know how long immunity will last for, anyway.

Less testing might be well part of it though as the % of positives is apparently quite high at over 11%, suggesting there are quite high numbers of unidentified people with covid in the community.