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Original poster

Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

177 replies

Warhertisuff · 23/07/2021 21:50

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

OP posts:
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7
Tuba437 · 26/07/2021 13:59

It's funny that when cases were on the rise and many people said yes but hospital admissions still were not at a high level and that cases don't matter.

Now that cases are going down those people are now saying we'll hospital admissions aren't going down.

I highly doubt that enough people have ditched the app and aren't testing is not a high enough number to make the cases fall by nearly 40 %

I honestly believe if it was all a false decline we would have had a press conference telling us not to get complacent and they believe the decline isn't real etc.

Yes less schools will be testing but schools were a huge drive of infection so them not being in will of course of course lean spread.

Also if cases are falling then less tests will be done as less people feel unwell. Yes I agree we need to look at hospital admissions in the next week or so but using Scotland as an example things are definitely looking good

Also India is a good example of delta causing a huge spike and in fast decline. With herd immunity Yes we need to vaccinate extremely high number plus have infection . However once we are close to that number we will have a lower level of infection purely because there are less hosts to infect, even if cases don't go right down until we reach that threshold.

Tuba437 · 26/07/2021 14:00

Lessen spread*

cantkeepawayforever · 26/07/2021 14:57

No, Boris quite clearly, when he set out his roadmap driven by dates not data, stated that each step was irreversible and after freedom day we would be completely back to normal, so here we are.

He has been very, very careful not to repeat this 'irreversibility' claim recently, and i don't think anyone still thinks this - a bit like nobody still thinks the first lockdown was for 3 weeks, as events changed so the plan had to change. It was always a hope, not a promise.

Bizawit · 26/07/2021 15:15

@cantkeepawayforever

No, Boris quite clearly, when he set out his roadmap driven by dates not data, stated that each step was irreversible and after freedom day we would be completely back to normal, so here we are.

He has been very, very careful not to repeat this 'irreversibility' claim recently, and i don't think anyone still thinks this - a bit like nobody still thinks the first lockdown was for 3 weeks, as events changed so the plan had to change. It was always a hope, not a promise.

😩😩😩😩😩
WiseUpJanetWeiss · 26/07/2021 15:38

It's funny that when cases were on the rise and many people said yes but hospital admissions still were not at a high level and that cases don't matter.

Now that cases are going down those people are now saying we'll hospital admissions aren't going down.

I’m not convinced those are the same people…

The stats in my hospital aren’t increasing much, but they are increasing.

I honestly believe if it was all a false decline we would have had a press conference telling us not to get complacent and they believe the decline isn't real etc.

If we were led by a decent government that’s what I’d expect, but with this shower? Unlikely.

Tuba437 · 26/07/2021 16:10

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

It's funny that when cases were on the rise and many people said yes but hospital admissions still were not at a high level and that cases don't matter.

Now that cases are going down those people are now saying we'll hospital admissions aren't going down.

I’m not convinced those are the same people…

The stats in my hospital aren’t increasing much, but they are increasing.

I honestly believe if it was all a false decline we would have had a press conference telling us not to get complacent and they believe the decline isn't real etc.

If we were led by a decent government that’s what I’d expect, but with this shower? Unlikely.

Surely if it was a false decline though it wouldn't Carey on going down like it is. It would of gone down to a certain number and then increased slightly as cases still increase.

Unless of course more and more people are ditching testing etc every day which seems unlikely.

noblegiraffe · 26/07/2021 16:23

The ONS random sampling infection survey (which comes out around noon on Friday) will show if it's a real drop in infection rates, or whether something is just going weird with regards to testing.

Last Friday there wasn't any sign of a drop but that data was collected before the drop in case rates started. This Friday will be the test.

SonnetForSpring · 26/07/2021 21:05

@noblegiraffe

The ONS random sampling infection survey (which comes out around noon on Friday) will show if it's a real drop in infection rates, or whether something is just going weird with regards to testing.

Last Friday there wasn't any sign of a drop but that data was collected before the drop in case rates started. This Friday will be the test.

Very true.
Buzzinwithbez · 26/07/2021 21:40

The percentage of positive PCR tests per tests carried out is slightly down too.

3asAbird · 27/07/2021 02:32

Testing is down 343k in 3 days
111k of those are PCR tests

Kokeshi123 · 27/07/2021 05:02

From about tomorrow or the next day, we should start to see the impact if there is impactof the opening on 19 July. Fingers crossed that the numbers keep going down. I could honestly see things going either way at this point.

I'll be honest, though, even if cases were to keep going down, down and down, the next argument will be that "the virus has mutated into forms that are asymptomatic AND are not being picked up by the tests! [but are nevertheless inexplicably dangerous]" etc. etc. I mean, I think some people have just really gone "sunk cost" on the doom aspect and will have difficulty moving on from the emergency phase of the pandemic without losing face in a massive way.

Kokeshi123 · 27/07/2021 05:04

No, more like Wednesday or Thursday, actually, not "tomorrow." Got my dates mixed up!

lannistunut · 27/07/2021 06:00

@Buzzinwithbez

The percentage of positive PCR tests per tests carried out is slightly down too.
This is rising in Scotland apparently
lannistunut · 27/07/2021 06:03

I think some people have just really gone "sunk cost" on the doom aspect and will have difficulty moving on from the emergency phase of the pandemic without losing face in a massive way
This is nonsense. Those warning about serious risks of government strategy - or rather absence of strategy - are not going to be upset if our health is not threatened.

Nellodee · 27/07/2021 06:26

In the last week at school, I overheard several students saying things like “My dad says I’m not allowed to do any more COVID tests now.” Lots of students were also pulled out in the last week, not isolating, just absent.

This had the knock on effect that the remaining students in school were much less tightly packed in. My class sizes reduced from an average of twenty eight to about fourteen. This probably had an impact as well.

GoldenOmber · 27/07/2021 07:14

This is rising in Scotland apparently

It isn’t, it’s falling. Last 5 Mondays:

12.6%
12.6%
11.1%
10.3%
8.0%

Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...
Gladimnotcampinginthisweather · 27/07/2021 07:22

Did anyone else think the newsreaders sounded a bit sad not to have gloom and doom to report?

SonnetForSpring · 27/07/2021 07:59

Irrespective of what case numbers are doing. The real picture will be seen with hospital admissions and deaths. So fingers crossed these keep falling over the next month too. The next question will be, was it schools and unis that made the big difference? Or have people changed their behaviour to be more cautious. Is it the weather or are the case numbers not accurate. I guess we will find out. If schools are the issue, that's going to be problematic and a very good argument for vaccination in 12 to 18 year olds.

SonnetForSpring · 27/07/2021 08:00

Problem is by the time the government decide on boosters and 12 to 18 vaccines, autumn and winter will be coming quick.

DottyHarmer · 27/07/2021 08:08

The BBC reported this morning that hospitals are filling up….. with patients undergoing treatments delayed by the pandemic.

Pp is right: they couldn’t bring themselves to headline it with anything other than a covid link.

NannyAndJohn · 27/07/2021 10:35

@SonnetForSpring

Irrespective of what case numbers are doing. The real picture will be seen with hospital admissions and deaths. So fingers crossed these keep falling over the next month too. The next question will be, was it schools and unis that made the big difference? Or have people changed their behaviour to be more cautious. Is it the weather or are the case numbers not accurate. I guess we will find out. If schools are the issue, that's going to be problematic and a very good argument for vaccination in 12 to 18 year olds.
I agree. Far too early to make any conclusions yet.

It's going to be a case of holding our breath and hoping that the rise associated with the Big Reopening isn't as awful as projected.

psychomath · 27/07/2021 11:07

In a few days' time when the age data heatmap on the dashboard catches up to the first week of the English summer holidays it'll be interesting to see if there's a sudden drop in cases among school age children. They have been falling in those age groups since the weekend of the 17th when some schools broke up, but so far the data only goes to the 21st so there's not much of it yet.

psychomath · 27/07/2021 11:10

It's going to be a case of holding our breath and hoping that the rise associated with the Big Reopening isn't as awful as projected.

It really must be good news - I think that's the most optimistic thing I've ever seen you say Grin

NannyAndJohn · 27/07/2021 11:13

@psychomath

It's going to be a case of holding our breath and hoping that the rise associated with the Big Reopening isn't as awful as projected.

It really must be good news - I think that's the most optimistic thing I've ever seen you say Grin

When have I specifically been pessimistic?

I've just been going off the data the entire time.

Tuba437 · 27/07/2021 11:22

@psychomath

It's going to be a case of holding our breath and hoping that the rise associated with the Big Reopening isn't as awful as projected.

It really must be good news - I think that's the most optimistic thing I've ever seen you say Grin

I was just thinking the same thing haha.