Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

[quote DumplingsAndStew]@Pissinthepottyplease

Schools reopening didn’t cause a huge increase in January but this was before the Delta variant.

The days are all blending into one, but didn't (English) schools open for one day in January?

Our were closed from mid-late December until mid April.[/quote]
Your right! I meant after Easter.

I imagine we are missing out on asymptomatic cases picked up by mass PCR testing following a school bubble closure as a close contact.

With schools being off there are considerably less people isolating as close contacts.

Foreign travel seems less likely as well so less people deciding to go so less tests there

Less impetus to do LFT during the school holidays

I suspect as many symptomatic cases are being picked up as before

I want it to be the peak, obviously. I’m willing that line to stay flat and begin to dip. But I think it’s just that fewer people are testing because Covid is all over, and they don’t want to miss their holidays.

We’ll know soon enough. If it’s real, hospitalisations should start to level in the next week or so, and deaths should follow a fortnight later.

Rarely have I ever wanted more to be wrong.

@littlepeas

I’m really hoping that cases are going down, but I’ve got a horrible feeling it’s people ignoring symptoms and not testing en masse in fear of having to cancel holidays.

I think that’s very likely, seen numerous posts about people not testing so they can go away or attend events regardless of symptoms.

Schools closed will have had a big impact, plus many pulled their DC out of school for the last week to avoid the risk of isolation before holidays. I certainly think people are not getting tested either to avoid another isolating or because the symptoms list on the government/ NHS website does not include the more common symptoms for Delta. Lots of people dismissing symptoms as just a summer cold and won't get tested because they don't fit the criteria 🙄

Those saying there have been fewer tests, you're right but

13% fewer tests than a week ago but 29% fewer cases than last Friday and the weekly rate of increase has dropped to just over 10%

That gives a net decrease of 16% over last Friday.

Live in what was a fairly high area of Covid. Noticed that not only are numbers are now dropping slightly here but that the percentage of positive PCRs is also dropping, this means that it can’t just be that tests numbers are decreasing because if that was the sole factor then the percentage of positive PCRs would be increasing. I think it’s a lot to do with school closure though.

@SecretKeeper1 its from the age download file for England on the government dashboard.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

I just selected a series of recent dates and ran a pivot against it

then there is the heatmap that the the dashboard also shows by country, region, council area etc; this for example links to Amber Valley

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Amber%20Valley#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics

I suspect it’s to do with schools closing and so less testing and spreading there.

I think numbers will drop over the summer holidays. Mixture of less people testing and kids not in school.

I am not overly worried, but I am waiting until mid late September, to be optimistic.

@Whatever9999

Those saying there have been fewer tests, you're right but

13% fewer tests than a week ago but 29% fewer cases than last Friday and the weekly rate of increase has dropped to just over 10%

That gives a net decrease of 16% over last Friday.

This is because the tests that have stopped are those that were being done by the age groups most likely to test positive, and least likely to need a symptomatic test, in part.

Not each test has an equal chance fo finding a case - an 'average' 15 year old is more likely to have covid than an 'average' 65 year old.

The heatwave last week might have an impact too. People meeting up outdoors rather than indoors or even reducing contact as it has been that bloody hot that my kids haven't left home this last week!

Schools being shut, no gatherings in pubs to watch football, seemingly many people who have worked from home continuing to do so, and more outdoor things, all seem to point to things that could reduce transmission of the virus.

@Whiskycav

I think numbers will drop over the summer holidays. Mixture of less people testing and kids not in school.

I am not overly worried, but I am waiting until mid late September, to be optimistic.

It that's true then removing all restrictions will have proven to have been a good call!

I heard on the news today that last week's hospital admissions were higher than anywhere else in Europe.

@LynetteScavo

When schools break up for summer pupils stop testing, so of course reports of positive tests go down. It doesn't mean Covid isn't spreading any less. It will now be going around night clubs rather than schools.

The important thing to look at is hospital admissions IMO.

Yes testing will go down, but considering schools we're the main source of spread it does mean that less spreading will also be happening.

We have to remember that before the football the rate of increase was also slowing, so thongs were improving before schools broke up aswell.

Things*

Numbers have gone down because schools ha e closed in Scotland and many in England have also been closed for the past week as well. If numbers stay down after September then that would be reason for optimism. Currently I think it is premature.

I heard on the news today that last week's hospital admissions were higher than anywhere else in Europe.

Looking at it optimistically though, a great many people get admitted overnight and sent home again, far more than in previous waves. I saw some data on Twitter last week when 650 ish people had been admitted one day, over 500 of them were discharged the next day. I assume that's because they can't go to the GP like you can with anything else, so they're ending up at hospital for treatment.

Less children and others doing LFTs is surely a factor
As is the fact that people going on holiday soon just aren't going to do them in the run up (or might do private PCRs to go abroad but they won't count will they)
Cases might well reduced in the under 18s but that will partly be because of children finished and many of the rest will have been sent home anyway.
With nightclubbing etc back on from last monday then I would expect them to go up again tbh.

Really really hope things do plateau a bit though then hopefully drop. This 'wall of vaccination' thing has got to kick in at some point, though I fear that without vaccinating the teenagers it wont be until a very large chunk of children and unvaccinated young adults have got ill first.

Hospital admissions in Scotland have dropped which could be a great sign as their decline started a couple of weeks before ours.

Another drop today! I have to say I was expecting cases to hit 65-75k after the rapid rise after the Euros, so it's good to see it steadily dropping.

I've a feeling that we might even see the percentage change turning green.

Great that average numbers are coming down, but that hides a multitude of variation.
Rates here are still rising, and fast. Until the drop can be replicated across the country, and sustained this isnt over.
Sorry for the negative message, but it seems like every other message I get from friends right now us another positive result.