Is it reasonable to be cautiously optimistic about case numbers...

[Warhertisuff]

I appreciate there may be issues with data reporting (though I'm not aware of any) or a statistical anomaly, but the recent falls in new cases, when there's nothing to suggest social contacts would have been unusually low over the past week, feels like very good news!

I'm not saying 19 July made no difference - clearly it did - but I don't think it's as significant as some are making it out to be.

Again

Some of the people 'making it out to be a big deal' include the chief medical officer and chief scientific advisor.

I think you're hoping, but not really using logic.

Well, I'm expecting a 'bump' up in numbers as a result of 19th July, but I am open to - and hoping for - the possibility that this won't be the case. I think it will be, though.

I'm clinging to the hope that cases will increase (I can't see how they won't) but that it won't matter because of the protection of the vaccines

Bristol schools only broke up this week
Devon today
Manchester way next week.

I'm skeptical about access to testing and how quick pcr tests being processes I lab are.

It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of cases...

Early days, and not strictly comparable, but, age breakdown in England; showing the actual case number for ease of perspective.

Peak in terms of specimen dates Thursday 15th; age breakdown only up to Sunday 18th . A few more days data would be preferable of course.

Its against all logic regarding the longer term trend. So unfortunately, I feel it's a blip.

The only thing that is helping me is Scotland has come down over a while and they haven’t introduced lockdown

Scotland closed schools a month ago.

True, but how many people went to nightclubs last weekend? Probably a fraction of 1% of the population. And those that did would be unlikely to be the types who'd have restricted their socialising to meeting a lone friend in a garden the day before.

Not last weekend, but since Monday - loads. These youngsters will also be the people who haven't been vaccinated yet.

I'm with @lannistunut.

I'm not one to follow the daily / weekly figures, but I do know that all planned operations at our major hospital have been cancelled for over a week now, due to the fact they are at full capacity and can't take more people in. I know that my GP (who in the Autumn were able to call people back the same day (usually within 2 hours of your call) to have a phone appt an then arrange for you to come in if need be, now can't guarantee to see you within a week.

I'm an optimistic / glass half full kind of a person, but I think anyone who thinks COVID is fading into the background at this point is fooling themselves.
I'll believe scientists and medics over politicians any day of the week.

Nightclubs have been a big driver in other countries so there's no reason to suspect they won't be here, too.

People aren't getting tested as they don't want to ruin their holly-bobs. Ditto not isolating.

The nice weather has led to more outdoor mixing, but that will stop soon.

Schools have broken up so that's a temporary false lull.

Tests are reportedly harder to access and get results from.

“Schools could be a big factor though. It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of cases...”
Schools reopening didn’t cause a huge increase in January but this was before the Delta variant.

I’m hopeful the governments gamble has paid off. It would be lovely if we have peaked for now but only the next couple of weeks will we know.

@Pissinthepottyplease

Schools reopening didn’t cause a huge increase in January but this was before the Delta variant.

The days are all blending into one, but didn't (English) schools open for one day in January?

Our were closed from mid-late December until mid April.

@boys3

It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of cases...

Early days, and not strictly comparable, but, age breakdown in England; showing the actual case number for ease of perspective.

Peak in terms of specimen dates Thursday 15th; age breakdown only up to Sunday 18th . A few more days data would be preferable of course.

@boys3 can I ask where that’s from, do you have a link, please?

@SonnetForSpring

Its against all logic regarding the longer term trend. So unfortunately, I feel it's a blip.

Not necessarily... At some point, we will reach a point where the combination of immunity caused by vaccine is sufficient to cause R to fall below 1, and for cases to fall.

[quote DumplingsAndStew]@Pissinthepottyplease

Schools reopening didn’t cause a huge increase in January but this was before the Delta variant.

The days are all blending into one, but didn't (English) schools open for one day in January?

Our were closed from mid-late December until mid April.[/quote]
Primary schools opened for one day in January, secondary not at all. We were supposed to have a staggered start a week later which then got cancelled.

Schools started to reopen from 8th March.

Looking at the figures I reckon it's likely to be a bit bumpy for a bit. It will be interesting to see if full reopening I'd cancelled out by schools being shut. Will be also interesting to see what happens in Scotland in mid-August when their schools reopen. Although it's not cases we need to be looking at, it's hospitalisations - I'll feel more positive when they start to plateau...

I think it reflects the numbers that went online learning for end of term or schools broke up for summer last week.

We know that school aged children were largest group of infections.

Now it's 20-29 age group when schools are out.

Makes sense as they are likely the group nightclubbing and partying.

If there are more people self isolating then there are more people unable to spread anything. With children It can also reduce those in their households contacts as parents and siblings are less likely to go to places either.
The weather will have meant more will have been socialising outside.
People may be being extra careful because they don't want holiday plans messed up.
People not testing because they don't want to isolate and less school related testing.

Feeling cautiously optimistic here. The fall in English cases looks similar to the fall in Scottish cases, just with a time lag of.... a few weeks? And Scotland's fall has been very real. Cases in Scotland have fallen almost 50% from the peak (thought admittedly it was a very big peak indeed).

Re: breakdown of cases by age:
Try this graph.

You can also read the original Twitter thread for discussion.
twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1416771390829699077

@littlepeas

I’m really hoping that cases are going down, but I’ve got a horrible feeling it’s people ignoring symptoms and not testing en masse in fear of having to cancel holidays.

That is unfortunately a possibility : number of tests fell by nearly 5%

But the rate of increase has slowed - essentially being on a plateau for several days in a row - so yes, cautiously optimistic

Here in France numbers are going up (from a previous very low base) as Delta spreads. Infections are highest in the 20-29 age group and in coastal areas, though you can see the spread inland now. Schools finished over two weeks ago, so it looks as if holidays might be a factor.
Vaccinations are available for all over 12 and there has been a massive take-up by young people because of the requirement for the Covid passport in bars, clubs, shopping centres etc.

We know that school aged children were largest group of infections

Shhhh - we're not meant to have noticed that, and definitely get ticked off if we talk about how schools aren't covid safe or heaven forfend! discuss how to improve measures!

@Whatever9999

I think it might be a bit bumpy, but atm it's looking good. Last Saturday was the highest day of cases reported in this wave, so tomorrow will be telling. Of course the usual suspects will be along in a bit to inform us all about how we'll be at 100000 cases by a week on Monday and its because we're not testing as much don't you know (despite the drop in cases being a larger percentage than the drop in tests).

There has been a huge drop in the number of LFTs being reported. If a large number of PCRs are confirming a positive LFT then this could drop the positivity rate without the rate of covid decreasing.

But how many people suddenly increased their social interactions on "Freedom Day"?! I don't imagine it will have much of an impact at all... but we'll see soon enough.

Are you mad?

Nightclubs
Festivals (The Norfolk one this weekend has 40,000, mostly unvaccinated young people mixing, weather is dreadful so they’ll be huddled together in tents)
No social distancing in pubs/restaurants.

Of course these interactions will make a difference to the number of infections!

When schools break up for summer pupils stop testing, so of course reports of positive tests go down. It doesn't mean Covid isn't spreading any less. It will now be going around night clubs rather than schools.

The important thing to look at is hospital admissions IMO.