Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Already? 😁

I have found a good barometer for the state of covid in the UK is shown in how quickly these threads fill up.

I’m just going to cut and paste here as tried on old thread

Although Chris Whitty did back July 19 Indigo?

And has talked about the strategy for why now. I also see many people wearing masks on public transport so I think he’s pretty good at behavioural stuff too.

That caution he talked about - and that majority do right thing. Each day I’ve been on overground it’s like he observed before it happened. The strategy is use the summer well before winter hits. It makes sense to me. Plus behavioural stuff and I’m not in it’s terrible camp yet.

Thanks for new thread Boys!

Just a lurker but thanks for keeping up the good work.

There seemed to be a bit of confusion on the last thread.

A map for those who struggle with the concept of the UK (United Kingdom) being four nations with devolved decision making around health. Whilst England is by the far the largest with around 85% of the UK population; Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are, and this may come as a surprise to some, not in fact part of England.

Nightclubs, a topic of the moment, have re-opened in England only; but are not re-opened yet in Northern Ireland, Scotland, or Wales.

So let's try to get the basics right.

The UK is not a synonym for England.

@boys3

There seemed to be a bit of confusion on the last thread.

A map for those who struggle with the concept of the UK (United Kingdom) being four nations with devolved decision making around health. Whilst England is by the far the largest with around 85% of the UK population; Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are, and this may come as a surprise to some, not in fact part of England.

Nightclubs, a topic of the moment, have re-opened in England only; but are not re-opened yet in Northern Ireland, Scotland, or Wales.

So let's try to get the basics right.

The UK is not a synonym for England.

Thanks for this.

Anyway cases falling in England, I suspect the eye of the hurricane; however I would be delighted to be wrong about that.

The fall is pretty widespread. These look at just the current week that started on Monday as reported this afternoon, so most of Monday and Tuesday, a very significant amount of Wednesday, and the first tranche of Thursday; as compared with the same period reported last Friday afternoon.

No one get too carried away by the cases per 100,000 being lower - they only represent a part week.

New Variant found in the UK.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-uk-variant-phe-latest-b1889378.html

.

Can anyone help me here?

I have an elderly relation who isn't fully vaccinated who we visited , inside, today. I'd had a pcr test at home so tested dd (secondary) when she broke up from school on Wednesday and sent it off. I also have done lateral flows weds thurs fri on both of us.

The pcr came back inconclusive. I just assumed she'd done it wrong as I've had a test in the past that couldn't be read.

I just googled out of interest and keep finding info that it means she could be early stage infectious ? And we've just spent a day with unvaccinated relation.

I'm in a bit of a state of panic. I can't do anything about it now. We're seeing other family tomorrow. Will do lateral flows again.

[quote NannyAndJohn]New Variant found in the UK.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-uk-variant-phe-latest-b1889378.html[/quote]
On the one hand:

There is no evidence to suggest it makes the vaccines less effective or causes more severe illness

and

Sixteen confirmed cases of B.1.621 have been identified across the country so far.

Most of the cases have been linked to overseas travel and there is currently no evidence of community transmission in the UK

Although the Sanger data on last Monday, which itself only goes up to July 10th, and includes only genomes sequenced for general surveillance, excluding those sequenced in special studies or with a known recent travel history had already identified 5 cases of this variant.

2 in w/e 3rd July; 1 each in KIngston (Royal Borough not Hull) and Test Valley

3 in w/e 10th July; 1 each in Dacorum; Sutton and Kensington and Chelsea.

An awful lot of schools broke up last week and private schools the week before

Hopefully it doesn't get out of hand.

But we said that about Original Covid, then Alpha, then Delta...

Inconclusive is more likely to mean something went wrong with the test, eg she touched her tongue with the swab, the sample got contaminated at the lab, etc. Don’t panic. Can she do another PCR, maybe at a test centre for speed?

We've seen the relative now . I'm picking up other family at 9am tomorrow. No symptoms. I literally only did the pcr as we had it (think it was sent with lateral flow pack as accuracy check and I forgot). So ordinarily wouldn't have done it.

Now I'm going to be in a state of panic doe the next ten days

@JanFebAnyMonth thank you she's 12 so it's very likely she didn't swab properly. But I've read on many sites now that inconclusive means one of the genes was present but not both, so it means very early or very late infection. This seems to be certain. It also means low viral load which I hope helps here . I don't understand though if one covid gene is there why not positive? Does it mean it may not be enough to be infectious ?

@boys3

Anyway cases falling in England, I suspect the eye of the hurricane; however I would be delighted to be wrong about that.

The fall is pretty widespread. These look at just the current week that started on Monday as reported this afternoon, so most of Monday and Tuesday, a very significant amount of Wednesday, and the first tranche of Thursday; as compared with the same period reported last Friday afternoon.

No one get too carried away by the cases per 100,000 being lower - they only represent a part week.

I think the "eye of the hurricane" is the perfect way to describe it.

Placemarking again - thanks, Boys

@olivethegreat

Can anyone help me here?

I have an elderly relation who isn't fully vaccinated who we visited , inside, today. I'd had a pcr test at home so tested dd (secondary) when she broke up from school on Wednesday and sent it off. I also have done lateral flows weds thurs fri on both of us.

The pcr came back inconclusive. I just assumed she'd done it wrong as I've had a test in the past that couldn't be read.

I just googled out of interest and keep finding info that it means she could be early stage infectious ? And we've just spent a day with unvaccinated relation.

I'm in a bit of a state of panic. I can't do anything about it now. We're seeing other family tomorrow. Will do lateral flows again.

Inconclusive likely means the PCR failed altogether, probably due to snot and/or blood on the swab. Blood contains PCR inhibitors and snot contains RNAses - either of these could stop the control from showing as positive, this invalidating the test.

@QueenStromba thanks that helps a lot. I'll make sure she blows her nose next time. No known exposure and no symptoms, hopefully the odds are on our side .

@boys3

There seemed to be a bit of confusion on the last thread.

A map for those who struggle with the concept of the UK (United Kingdom) being four nations with devolved decision making around health. Whilst England is by the far the largest with around 85% of the UK population; Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are, and this may come as a surprise to some, not in fact part of England.

Nightclubs, a topic of the moment, have re-opened in England only; but are not re-opened yet in Northern Ireland, Scotland, or Wales.

So let's try to get the basics right.

The UK is not a synonym for England.

As a Scot living in England, I thank you for this. If you could just now come to school with me every day to present this apparently bewildering thought to all the students -and staff-- I'd be eternally grateful.

Three of our students recently had inconclusive PCRs and when retested, two were positive.

I think most kniw the differences in restrictions being released on here amd where.

But with messaging in media etc it is usually ‘U.K. experiment’ because it’s shorthand. Rarely do I see English anything in press. Or when criticism is attached.

But yes each nation is making release decisions.

[quote olivethegreat]@JanFebAnyMonth thank you she's 12 so it's very likely she didn't swab properly. But I've read on many sites now that inconclusive means one of the genes was present but not both, so it means very early or very late infection. This seems to be certain. It also means low viral load which I hope helps here . I don't understand though if one covid gene is there why not positive? Does it mean it may not be enough to be infectious ? [/quote]
We had an inconclusive with a toddler snotty nose and mild cough at one point. Negative on follow-up, plus nobody else around us had covid and nor did we, though we did have a slightly snotty nose too. Don't worry until you have to, just repeat the test.

@MildredPuppy

An awful lot of schools broke up last week and private schools the week before

And an lot of people kept their kids out of school in the last week to avoid compromising the holidays they booked, on top of the huge absences due to isolations throughout July.