Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

That is worrying. It's worth noting that the 12 week gap in the UK should have delayed reduction for most of our elderly and healthcare staff, who were second jabbed in March/ April. There also remains a chance that it gave higher immunity. Those few who got second jabs with the shorter gap in December should be very cautious though.

We do have a long period of schools being off

A friend had two inconclusive tests having worked on a Covid ward and symptoms

@Bordois

So fewer people proportionally going to hospital, but those that do are more likely to be ill enough for ICU?

Possibly, but admission criteria for ITU tends to be flexible depending upon demand. When demand for beds is greatest, the admission criteria tighten to prioritise those with the greatest need + potential to survive.

When there is more availability, criteria may be more flexible. Not sure if this is the case, but I've heard from former colleagues that ITU patients this time round are younger, so may be being admitted sooner rather than later to increase their chance of survival. At least I hope that's what it is and that we are not heading towards a lack of ITU beds again.

Really interesting to see that child cases have increased very slightly across all regions and been dropping in 20-29 age. It would be interesting to see if that's 20-24 or 25-29

@mrex from figures published up to yesterday, so a five day lag. These are absolute daily case numbers for England , as opposed to the rolling 7 day total or rolling 7 day rate per 100,000

That data is a bit misleading as the last 2 days that show a drop are the weekend which has lower numbers anyway. If you compare the last weekend to the one before that it shows an increase.

Possibly, but admission criteria for ITU tends to be flexible depending upon demand. When demand for beds is greatest, the admission criteria tighten to prioritise those with the greatest need + potential to survive.

Back in the other peaks their were reports that some elderly people weren't being put on ventilators as they were too frail - if the average age of people being admitted has dropped then that could also explain the relative increase in ICU - patients are younger and so more likely to survive the ventilation process.

Bordois, I’m certainly hoping that’s what it is.

Public health England upgrade Delta Variant Risk level due to an increasing risk of reinfection after 6 months. Another reason why herd immunity is vanishingly impossible .

Meant to be posted in the herd immunity thread! Sorry

wow that's bad news

What does 46% mean though what was the Alpha figure?

About 84% protection.

So looking at about 45% protection.

So it looks like 1.2% of infections are and may be as much about waning immunity from earlier infection as anything else from the article

@Fferny1

Public health England upgrade Delta Variant Risk level due to an increasing risk of reinfection after 6 months. Another reason why herd immunity is vanishingly impossible .

Fucking hell.

@Fferny1

Public health England upgrade Delta Variant Risk level due to an increasing risk of reinfection after 6 months. Another reason why herd immunity is vanishingly impossible .

So, if this is correct, the government plan of getting us all infected over the summer months will mean we are all vulnerable again in the midst of winter.

Yes. I guess we can only hope the older people all get a booster before then.

That report refers to immunity conferred by infection rather than vaccine. Not great news for a country that doesn't plan to vaccinate children. Vaccinated adults may be fine
I don't know if there is an equivalent research into re-infection after vaccine.

I think this Canadian research might have been posted on the last thread.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2
The emphasis is on protection against disease severity rather than just infection and concludes that even one dose of any vaccine is effective at preventing hospitalisation with Delta.

@Indigopearl, that's very worrying. Do you know if there is similar data for the AZ vaccine?

[quote AlexaShutUp]@Indigopearl, that's very worrying. Do you know if there is similar data for the AZ vaccine?[/quote]
I've not seen any data where AZ outperforms Pfizer, so I feel fairly confident in saying that the data will (when it is eventually released) be worse.

@Whichjab, I know, but I had the AZ jab myself and remain an optimistic... is it not possible that AZ might be less effective in the short term but longer lasting than pfizer? Or is that just wishful thinking?

Well I think we can now confidently say that this is not the "exit wave" and even the sheer concept of an "exit wave" may be impossible.

So looking at about 45% protection.

I would interpret the numbers differently.

Previous infection with Alpha gave about 84% protection, i.e. 16% of people ran the risk of getting reinfected. Delta increases the pool of susceptible population by 46% which means 16% goes up to roughly 23% (16 * 1.46). The remaining 77% stay protected. The drop from 84% to 77% is not dissimilar to reported decreases in vaccine efficacy levels.

Meaghan Kall is one of the authors of the PHE report (Technical Briefing 19) and she provides more detail on her twitter account:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1418554359311486978

[quote AlexaShutUp]@Whichjab, I know, but I had the AZ jab myself and remain an optimistic... is it not possible that AZ might be less effective in the short term but longer lasting than pfizer? Or is that just wishful thinking?[/quote]
I also had the AZ, just before it was stopped for U40's, I'm desperate for positive news but evidently a pessimist.

And here is one of the most important observations in her thread:

Taken together with the vaccination data, it is very clear that in the UK COVID-19 is still mainly affecting immune naive people.

Delta cases (99% of cases in England) are occurring in people with NO previous infection (99%) & who are NOT fully vaccinated (86%).