Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@lonelyplanet

On the Meagham Kall thread she says that the proportion of cases sequenced is dropping due to the high number of cases. She says that sequencing remains targeted at new arriving travellers & areas with surge testing. Does anyone know whether surge testing is still happening? Now that most of the country has the delta variant are they still bothering with it? If so where?

I am wondering whether if new variants emerge, how quickly they will be found. They are probably more likely to emerge in the UK at the moment as they are to arrive from abroad.

McNally from the MK lab whom I quoted yesterday, said one of the main reasons to keep PCR testing for border control and hospital cases was to enable genomic sequencing.

Implying that we only need to be worried about variants that cause severe illness? Don’t know.

*to keep ie in the case that we begin to run out of testing capacity

@QueenStromba

Well this Twitter thread is thoroughly depressing.

twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20

For reference, Alberta's spring 2020 restrictions were:

Schools and daycares closed, limited gatherings to 15 people, suspended vehicle access to provincial parks, and ordered the closure of all "close-contact" health and personal care services, dine-in restaurants, and "non-essential" retail stores.

A co-ordinated elimination strategy? Presumably globally? I mean, that's so incredibly unlikely/impossible as a workable solution that I'm not sure why it's even suggested.

There are plenty of countries in the world where a lockdown is by far a greater threat than covid will ever be - people would starve to death. If that is genuinely the only solution then I think we will have to accept that control is impossible.

There's a page for surge testing here: www.gov.uk/guidance/surge-testing-for-new-coronavirus-covid-19-variants#who-should-get-a-test.

Extract:
North West
Cumbria County Council(targeted areas)

South East
Slough Borough Council(targeted areas)

Yorkshire and the Humber
City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council (targeted areas)
Leeds City Council(targeted areas across Headingley and Hyde Park and Little London and Woodhouse wards)
Wakefield Council(targeted areas across Wakefield North, Wakefield South, Wakefield East, Pontefract North and Pontefract South)

The list is updated regularly.

Vaccines aren't 100% effective, and don't have 100% coverage.

So obviously vaccines are not 100% of the solution.

They don’t need to be 100% to be what we use from now on.

Countries won’t vaccinate population and keep restrictions unless healthcare can’t cope.

@JanFebAnyMonth - I believe he is saying that because new variants aren't expected from kids nor adults managing mild symptoms at home, they are expected from prolonged infection. So that's people in UK hospital or overseas. Genomic sequencing doesn't add value in tracking Alpha versus Delta percentage and we only get Beta or new variants from overseas right now. Like the Colombian B.1.621 or whatever it's called. And on that note, why doesn't it have a Greek letter yet? We've all hauled ourselves through the effort of ditching Kent/SA/India, don't force us to learn two names for every bloody variant that shows up!

Late with figures today

24 July 2021
Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.

@PrincessNutNuts

Vaccines aren't 100% effective, and don't have 100% coverage.

So obviously vaccines are not 100% of the solution.

Only if your aim is to completely eliminate covid. If your aim is to end up with a manageable, endemic disease then they may well do enough.

@3asAbird

Late with figures today

24 July 2021
Because of technical difficulties in processing England deaths data, today's update is delayed.

Triple checking the cases data I reckon.

"B.1.621 or whatever it's called. And on that note, why doesn't it have a Greek letter yet?"

The WHO give out the Greek letters to variants of concern or interest. I assume they haven't decided it's a big enough or international enough problem yet.

Oh yes, thanks @mrex.

@QueenStromba

"B.1.621 or whatever it's called. And on that note, why doesn't it have a Greek letter yet?"

The WHO give out the Greek letters to variants of concern or interest. I assume they haven't decided it's a big enough or international enough problem yet.

They can’t give them out willy-nilly, because when they get to N, it’s embarrassing. (Google pronunciation of the Greek letter N)

Virology professor at Oxford on endemic covid.

twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1359863858609999877?s=20

31,795 uk cases reported today.

😯

@Bordois

31,795 uk cases reported today.

😯

Tripled check complete

Thats around 29k for England alone, which is a massive drop from the almost 51k cases last week!

Can anyone explain how they calculated vaccination rates to they take entire population and take off all under 18s?
As 69% sounds impressive but my city is only 50% and if you add in kids that appears only be 50% double vaccinated.

Cases are down not sure about testing.

Anyway cases falling in England

@boys3 Valance said with such a rise of cases reporting won't be accurate as it's be hard to get a test and also people have covid fatigue so won't bother ANDREW the symptoms are NOT always what is required for a test.

@Bordois

31,795 uk cases reported today.

😯

It's nice to see the trend continuing; barring new variants or nightclub deferred spike it could even drop near 20k next week. We still need to fear any spike Weds-Fri next week IMO, from those who threw caution to the wind and don't test either but will have spread their covid up/down the age groups. School holidays start in many areas yesterday, so they will only start to help England significantly from the week after (allowing time to pass infections within households).

@QueenStromba

Well this Twitter thread is thoroughly depressing.

twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20

For reference, Alberta's spring 2020 restrictions were:

Schools and daycares closed, limited gatherings to 15 people, suspended vehicle access to provincial parks, and ordered the closure of all "close-contact" health and personal care services, dine-in restaurants, and "non-essential" retail stores.

As much as I agree that for zero Covid to ever be possible, it would take a global effort. I do not believe that will EVER be possible. There are not enough countries aiming for this strategy.

As much as I would have loved a global effort to eliminate Covid, I have up on that ever being possible in 2020.

Nothing that has happened since then has convinced me that it’s ever going to be a possible solution.

I think schools will have had a reduced impact on numbers in the past week or so.

Years 11 & 3 had finished.

Private schools would have finished a week or 2 early anyhow.

And a huge number, maybe 10% or so of the rest were off school, either isolating or asked to work from home as part of the school's plan.

My hunch is that the 10% working at home, like my DC< would have been far far less likely to get infected.

Schools ending is the firebreak mentioned

Part of the reason we’re lifting now.

Is it meant to be an issue this is happening?

Very good to see lower numbers. Well done Bordois

I jest slightly but also pleased others are pleased to see them lower

[quote QueenStromba]Virology professor at Oxford on endemic covid.

twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1359863858609999877?s=20[/quote]
www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

That paper is pre delta, I doubt a similar survey now would be as optimistic. We're looking at an orange box at best here (remember that a mild disease is anything that doesn't put you in the hospital). Data from Israel is showing an 88% efficacy against hospitalisation, down from 98% in May.