Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Only if your aim is to completely eliminate covid. If your aim is to end up with a manageable, endemic disease then they may well do enough.

When do you anticipate that happening?

Because nothing about covid's evolution to date indicates we are heading in that direction.

@PrincessNutNuts

Only if your aim is to completely eliminate covid. If your aim is to end up with a manageable, endemic disease then they may well do enough.

When do you anticipate that happening?

Because nothing about covid's evolution to date indicates we are heading in that direction.

I'd anticipate that the Winter will be difficult, I'd expect the Winters to be difficult for the next few years with boosters and tweaked vaccines required regularly.

Hopefully things will improve year on year as vaccines improve.

@PrincessNutNuts

Only if your aim is to completely eliminate covid. If your aim is to end up with a manageable, endemic disease then they may well do enough.

When do you anticipate that happening?

Because nothing about covid's evolution to date indicates we are heading in that direction.

But it isn't just about Covid evolution as it is about our reaction to it and the perception of Covid as a virus.

That changes depending on what your aim is. Initially it was to a fact finding exercise, then it was developing vaccines before delivering vaccines. Our reactions to it are as important as how the variants have evolved.

[quote MRex]@JanFebAnyMonth - I believe he is saying that because new variants aren't expected from kids nor adults managing mild symptoms at home, they are expected from prolonged infection. So that's people in UK hospital or overseas. Genomic sequencing doesn't add value in tracking Alpha versus Delta percentage and we only get Beta or new variants from overseas right now. Like the Colombian B.1.621 or whatever it's called. And on that note, why doesn't it have a Greek letter yet? We've all hauled ourselves through the effort of ditching Kent/SA/India, don't force us to learn two names for every bloody variant that shows up![/quote]
Thank you Mrex and Jan, that makes sense. I assumed surge testing had stopped so was surprised when it was mentioned.

The number of cases dropping like they have seem too good to be true.

@QueenStromba

Well this Twitter thread is thoroughly depressing.

twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20

For reference, Alberta's spring 2020 restrictions were:

Schools and daycares closed, limited gatherings to 15 people, suspended vehicle access to provincial parks, and ordered the closure of all "close-contact" health and personal care services, dine-in restaurants, and "non-essential" retail stores.

I agree with her 100%.

If we'd all cooperated back in Feb 2020 there's a pretty good chance that Covid would have been and gone in a flash.

my point was that the numbers testing positive because of schools would have started going down before the 22nd/23rd, which was when state schools officially finished in our area.

That might contribute to the overall picture of reduced cases that we are now seeing, which is of course good to see.

Tweaked vaccines aren't necessarily going to work (except as a booster) as the previous antibodies might work well enough to clear the spike protein from the vaccine before the immune system has time to start working on new ones against the different parts.

Imagine the spike protein is a remote control. The body can make antibodies that bind to all parts of the remote control but only antibodies that cover the power button will actually disable it. Then a variant remote control emerges where everything is the same except the power button - antibodies will still bind to the remote control but since they don't bind to the power button they won't disable it. In a real infection the immune system will realise those antibodies aren't working and make new ones but if they're already non functional (like in a vaccine) then the immune system has no way of knowing the antibodies didn't work.

@QueenStromba

Tweaked vaccines aren't necessarily going to work (except as a booster) as the previous antibodies might work well enough to clear the spike protein from the vaccine before the immune system has time to start working on new ones against the different parts.

Imagine the spike protein is a remote control. The body can make antibodies that bind to all parts of the remote control but only antibodies that cover the power button will actually disable it. Then a variant remote control emerges where everything is the same except the power button - antibodies will still bind to the remote control but since they don't bind to the power button they won't disable it. In a real infection the immune system will realise those antibodies aren't working and make new ones but if they're already non functional (like in a vaccine) then the immune system has no way of knowing the antibodies didn't work.

Zero covid is not happening and will not happen. It's done, the decision has been made, it is unachievable. The die is cast.

We came up with a vaccine from scratch in a few months, I'm hopeful that we'll be able to keep up with variants as they arise, particularly as the mRNA technology has made it easier to alter vaccines. It won't be smooth sailing and there is always a chance that it won't succeed as a strategy but it is what is happening.

@Bordois

31,795 uk cases reported today.

😯

This looks like great news, but the drop from last week seems too big. I realise that the Euros will have fuelled previous high numbers but for this reduction it relies on everyone following the isolation rules; I don't believe in the current climate many will have. Zoe's estimates are way higher.

Sajid says we all need to power thru any symptoms. like he’s done, and get on with life, not “cower from this virus”....

(Sorry wrong thread, altho kind of relevant here!)

@QueenStromba - would you mind explaining that again? Research seemed to show increased antibodies from boosters, I'm don't understand why/ when you think that will stop?

Well lucky Sajid who obviously had very mild symptoms, no doubt down to his strength of character and willpower .

• I'd anticipate that the Winter will be difficult, I'd expect the Winters to be difficult for the next few years with boosters and tweaked vaccines required regularly.

Hopefully things will improve year on year as vaccines improve.*

Why only in Winter?

@Piggywaspushed

Well lucky Sajid who obviously had very mild symptoms, no doubt down to his strength of character and willpower .

He thinks illness is a moral failing.

That's why he's not protecting the vulnerable from the third wave.

[quote MRex]@QueenStromba - would you mind explaining that again? Research seemed to show increased antibodies from boosters, I'm don't understand why/ when you think that will stop?[/quote]
They'll increase antibodies, yes. But tweaking the vaccine won't necessarily produce any antibodies to the new parts of the spike protein. We'll definitely be able to address a reduction in immunity due to immunity waning over time like we're seeing in Israel but it's not certain that we'll be able to address a reduction in immunity due to variants.

@SuperstoreFan

The number of cases dropping like they have seem too good to be true.

Yeah.

I'm waiting for hospital admissions to start consistently dropping.

If they don't, we'll know actual cases haven't.

• But it isn't just about Covid evolution as it is about our reaction to it and the perception of Covid as a virus.

That changes depending on what your aim is. Initially it was to a fact finding exercise, then it was developing vaccines before delivering vaccines. Our reactions to it are as important as how the variants have evolved.*

Nothing about our reaction to it seems to be leading in the direction of covid becoming a manageable virus either.

@PrincessNutNuts The next few weeks data will tell us a lot really.

At the moment the drop in cases really do feel too good to be true. I can’t quite figure out why they have just dropped.

It was expected that cases would keep rising well into August.

Possibly because we had an artificial peak caused by the football without which cases would still have risen but at a slower rate.

Is there data published on length of hospital stay and whether that is changing? I’ve anecdotally heard that (some?) vaccinated patients are requiring less intervention so presumably are not staying in hospital as long?

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

Is there data published on length of hospital stay and whether that is changing? I’ve anecdotally heard that (some?) vaccinated patients are requiring less intervention so presumably are not staying in hospital as long?

There seems to be a big difference between the numbers admitted to hospital and those actually in hospital, so (i think) that would imply a fast turnover?

E.G. 12-19th saw 5322 admissions but the number of people in hospital rose by 1175

@PrincessNutNuts Scotland hospital admissions have started to drop. Again not enough data yet but fingers crossed this is a possible sign as they seem to be a couple of weeks ahead of us.

[quote SpringRainbow]@PrincessNutNuts The next few weeks data will tell us a lot really.

At the moment the drop in cases really do feel too good to be true. I can’t quite figure out why they have just dropped.

It was expected that cases would keep rising well into August.[/quote]
I think there are a few factors at play:

• large and widespread gatherings a few weeks ago for the Euros, the cases for which have been coming through in the last 2-3 weeks

• schools are out for the summer now in many areas

• the majority of the UK population over 16 now appear to be testing positive for antibodies, if this data is anything to go by: twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1418224366291013652 (NB the graph only runs til 4 July, so bear in mind there has been 3 more weeks to build antibodies in the younger groups, who have been getting vaccinations in the last two months).

It will be lovely beyond words if the trend continues, HOWEVER as others have said, what we do not yet have in the data is the impact of the July 19 mass lifting of restrictions. The crucial test will be to watch case numbers over the next 3 weeks or so.