Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 23rd JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@NannyAndJohn

Well I think we can now confidently say that this is not the "exit wave" and even the sheer concept of an "exit wave" may be impossible.

Even if this was the case though we can't just have restrictions forever. So we need to learn to live with this, vaccinated the vulnerable yearly like flu and get on with our lives. What is that other option?

Scotland reporting a 43% drop in cases from last Saturday - 2317 down to 1307

@Bordois

Scotland reporting a 43% drop in cases from last Saturday - 2317 down to 1307

The calm before the storm.

Everyone head off to the "Good News Thread" while you still can.

Those are todays stats, posted on the stats thread. Sorry if thats a problem for you nanny.

@Tuba437 But if we let everyone get reinfected over and over again then we'll end up with most of the population suffering from Long Covid. The country will be crippled.

NI reporting a rise from 1402 to 1520

@Bordois

Those are todays stats, posted on the stats thread. Sorry if thats a problem for you nanny.

Not a problem.

Just stating that these drops are a temporary blip due to the end of the football and it being too early to observe the effects of the Big Reopening.

It is still an exit wave though
But it is showing Zero Covid is impossible and we do need to learn how to live with this

Well... Netherlands cases are falling down rapidly and all they did was closed nightclubs and discos.

If UK/England has to tighten measures, I hope they will learn from the Dutch example and go for the minimum required interventions. With the current vaccination rates, we might not need "lockdowns"/closed hospitality/blanket indoor mask mandates to drive cases down.

@Quartz2208

It is still an exit wave though But it is showing Zero Covid is impossible and we do need to learn how to live with this

It isn't, it's simply the Third out of an unknown number of Waves.

Given the recent news about reinfection and waning immunity it's very likely we'll see a Fourth in the Winter.

Just stating that these drops are a temporary blip due to the end of the football and it being too early to observe the effects of the Big Reopening

Strange how you didn't actually state that though 🤔

But I'm not going to get derailed by you anymore. 👋

Aah I think it’s a matter of semantics then
This is an exit wave out of lifting restrictions, lockdown suppressed the virus so having lifted them it rises
It isn’t an exit wave out of coronavirus
And what big reopening apart from nightclubs and theatres it all seems the same as last weekend

Hospital numbers in Scotland have gone down also - 502 on Thursday to 478 yesterday.

[quote NannyAndJohn]@Tuba437 But if we let everyone get reinfected over and over again then we'll end up with most of the population suffering from Long Covid. The country will be crippled.[/quote]
So you are suggesting we have restrictions forever? That's essentially what you are saying?

Good luck trying to get people on board with that. while you hide away for the rest of your life, I'm off to Jamaica in a couple of weeks :)

@Bordois

Hospital numbers in Scotland have gone down also - 502 on Thursday to 478 yesterday.

Careful, I'm sure nanny will come and tell you that long covid affects the ability to count, so they must have just miscounted the numbers....

@NannyAndJohn

Given the recent news about reinfection and waning immunity it's very likely we'll see a Fourth in the Winter.

All this means is that Covid will never be eradicated. At some point we'll reach a steady state of infections running along at a low level. The longer we continue to artificially lower Covid with restrictions, the longer this will take.

Presumably you still see us having substantial restrictions in 10-20 years?

Just stating that these drops are a temporary blip due to the end of the football and it being too early to observe the effects of the Big Reopening.

So basically, if it hadn't been for the football, Covid infections would have been falling for weeks despite the fact we have Delta and significant relaxation of restrictions. That's excellent news @NannyAndJohn!

As I said on the last thread, I think the drop in Scotland has more to do with the schools being off for a month now and lots of people on annual leave. Scotland also hasn't had " freedom day" yet.
So it will be interesting seeing the difference and changes in case rates between Scotland and England.

It is interesting that all the zero Covid proponents have completely forgotten about Netherlands.

A few days ago every single twitter enthusiast advocating for zero Covid was adamant that Dutch restrictions were ineffective and Netherlands did a fatal mistake by not re-instating indoor mask mandates. It is worth noting that Netherlands government and health advisors were always skeptical about masks and only introduced them under populist pressure. They changed the rules earlier this year - masks are now only required on public transport and planes.

The fast drop may also be a "temporary blip" but the Netherlands case trajectory looks very good. Netherlands vaccination rates are similar to the UK (a few percentage points lower for second doses). They have also made the decision to delay vaccinating non-CEV teenagers.

This thread used to be useful and somewhere to come to get data and numbers, but now it seems it's gone to shit.

As you were.

As I said on the last thread, I think the drop in Scotland has more to do with the schools being off for a month now and lots of people on annual leave.

The trend in Scotland's cases does not necessarily support this:

1. Cases started decreasing 5 days after Scotland dropped off from Euro 2020. It would have been too early to see the impact of schools (especially across the broader population).
2. The majority of the decrease is driven by males in the 20-24 age group.

Schools certainly helped but the slope of decrease in the younger age group is much more gentle.

Careful, I'm sure nanny will come and tell you that long covid affects the ability to count, so they must have just miscounted the numbers....

Funny you should say that @Tuba437

On the Meagham Kall thread she says that the proportion of cases sequenced is dropping due to the high number of cases. She says that sequencing remains targeted at new arriving travellers & areas with surge testing. Does anyone know whether surge testing is still happening? Now that most of the country has the delta variant are they still bothering with it? If so where?

I am wondering whether if new variants emerge, how quickly they will be found. They are probably more likely to emerge in the UK at the moment as they are to arrive from abroad.

This thread is very valuable to people who want to know the facts and figures however, it’s unfortunately turned into a slanging match. Big choc frenzy is really missed. I really appreciate the posters on here that stick to the data, I find it reassuring and a place of calm, thanks for starting them @boys3. Please can people stop the bickering and post the statistics and graphs as previously?

Well this Twitter thread is thoroughly depressing.

twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20

For reference, Alberta's spring 2020 restrictions were:

Schools and daycares closed, limited gatherings to 15 people, suspended vehicle access to provincial parks, and ordered the closure of all "close-contact" health and personal care services, dine-in restaurants, and "non-essential" retail stores.