UK Covid Experiment

[ArmsofOrion]

Has anyone been watching these talks on YouTube. Seems like the rest of the world thinks the Uk is crazy for lifting all restrictions and I agree with them.

For anyone who doesn’t have their head buried in the sand it makes a very interesting discussion, not much you can argue with.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ

@ArmsofOrion

Unfortunately, announcing ‘freedom day’ gave people the impression it was all coming to an end. People let their guard down. That plus large scale events being allowed to take place and here we are again.

It's a real mess.

@ArmsofOrion

Unfortunately, announcing ‘freedom day’ gave people the impression it was all coming to an end. People let their guard down. That plus large scale events being allowed to take place and here we are again.

That's not really why we are where we are. They have sped up the process but it was always coming.

The Delta variant is simply too transmissible and the only way to control it is with severe lockdown, even with a high level of vaccination in the population.

We are never going to get to Zero Covid, so we need to either increase restrictions for the next few years or until a better vaccine comes along, or we ride this way out now in the hope that come October / November time we are in a better place.

Every single country will need to make a choice re Delta.

The US and many European countries will have to start making choices in the next few weeks.

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia I work in mental health and things are far from normal there. This has to stop because people are suffering more than ever, we are overwhelmed with cases and struggling to give people the time and attention they need. I suppose I'm biased given my field of work but young people especially are paying a hefty price for the continuing of restrictions and that is what will cause the NHS to be overwhelmed. GPs need to open back up as well because people are not getting the referrals they need due to the restrictions imposed on surgeries. Whilst I know this may not be the case up and down the country it's definitely the case in my area, an area that is one of the most deprived in the U.K.

@Sunshinegirl82

It's odd, didn't Israel do pretty much the same thing? I can't remember there being much criticism of that decision?

I can see that, on the face of it, it seems obvious that removing restrictions whilst cases are rising = an obviously terrible idea but when you take into account that all the modelling suggested an exit wave whenever we released restrictions, that some models suggested delaying the release could increase deaths due to the peak coinciding with winter viruses, that 90% of the adult population have antibodies, that damaging the economy reducing life expectancy, that delaying would coincide with schools returning, that hospitalisations and deaths are much, much lower than in previous waves etc, etc, etc it isn't completely clear cut.

There are no risk free options and there is logic behind the choice to release now.

No, the UK is the first country to reopen with such a contagious variant spreading at such high rates, and to insist there will be no turning back.

From the outside it is like watching a possible car crash in slow motion and being able to do nothing about it.

I'm always interested to know what people would propose as an alternative.

Chris Whitty stated that delaying opening would reduce the number of hospitalisations or deaths, just delay them. In fact it's possible a delay would increase the number of deaths.

Masks, SD are in place now and are not sufficient to stop cases rising. SAGE guidance stated that mandating mask use made no difference to who wore masks or how effective they were.

What is it we should be doing?

@ArmsofOrion

Yes, I’m alright Jack! Fed up of the utterly selfish comments I keep reading on here. Disgraceful how people are happy to write off someone else’s life. Long as you and your family are ok!

Yet you still have not offered an alternative? What would you do? What about other illnesses that are going undetected, is that okay as long as it's not covid? Maybe you have the as long as I'm alright Jack attitude as well.

It isn’t an experiment. An experiment is when you can’t foresee the outcome. The outcomes here are known.

Would NOT reduce the number of hospitalisations or deaths.

My family and friends overseas are astonished at our Covid world beating per capita fatalities

appalling yes; world beating - hardly

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?#countries

[quote mog27]@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia I work in mental health and things are far from normal there. This has to stop because people are suffering more than ever, we are overwhelmed with cases and struggling to give people the time and attention they need. I suppose I'm biased given my field of work but young people especially are paying a hefty price for the continuing of restrictions and that is what will cause the NHS to be overwhelmed. GPs need to open back up as well because people are not getting the referrals they need due to the restrictions imposed on surgeries. Whilst I know this may not be the case up and down the country it's definitely the case in my area, an area that is one of the most deprived in the U.K. [/quote]
They don't matter though! It's only deaths from Covid that count.

Sorry, I agree with everything you say, I am just getting so frustrated that so many people can not see past Covid.
That matters too of course, but the complete disregard that some have for our unpaid carers, our young people, our people with degenerate diseases, anyone that is not getting the help they need is shocking. Yet its us that are selfish and have the 'I'm alright Jack, to hell with everyone else attitude'.

What about other illnesses that are going undetected, is that okay as long as it's not covid?

Letting Covid run riot will only make that worse, not better. NHS doesn’t have the capacity to treat rising numbers of Covid patients and keep regular services running.

[quote mog27]@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia I work in mental health and things are far from normal there. This has to stop because people are suffering more than ever, we are overwhelmed with cases and struggling to give people the time and attention they need. I suppose I'm biased given my field of work but young people especially are paying a hefty price for the continuing of restrictions and that is what will cause the NHS to be overwhelmed. GPs need to open back up as well because people are not getting the referrals they need due to the restrictions imposed on surgeries. Whilst I know this may not be the case up and down the country it's definitely the case in my area, an area that is one of the most deprived in the U.K. [/quote]
I feel like it isn't all or nothing though? Would wearing a mask, meeting outdoors where possible and social distancing when indoors really have such a detrimental effect on peoples mental health? What restrictions that the UK has right now are having a detrimental effect on mental health?

I have no idea why GPs are not open in the UK, that seems bonkers, where I live there has been no problem getting to see a GP at all. I think in the very beginning they were asking people not to go unless they were sure they needed to but you have been able to see the GP as normal for months, well over a year really. There is no reason that you have to remove all restrictions for GPs to open.

@BoredZelda

What about other illnesses that are going undetected, is that okay as long as it's not covid?

Letting Covid run riot will only make that worse, not better. NHS doesn’t have the capacity to treat rising numbers of Covid patients and keep regular services running.

Ok but what should we actually do? Covid isn't going anywhere, the backlog will take years to address. The delta variant is so transmissible that only severe lockdown contains it, all over 40s have been offered two jabs, 90% of adults have antibodies. Do we go back into lockdown?

@BoredZelda the longer restrictions are in place the bigger the backlog will be. The vast majority of people don't need hospital treatment for covid but unfortunately everyone does for cancer, heart disease etc.

@Aloethere

I'm not sure that they would necessarily have a detrimental effect (although there are huge parts of the economy that cannot fiction with those restrictions in place) but they are not working to stop cases rising. If we want to reduce cases we need to increase restrictions otherwise we are, at best, slowing things down very slightly but not impacting on overall numbers.

According to the Independent

‘More than 1,200 scientists from around the globe have condemned the prime minister’s decision to forge ahead with so-called “freedom day” on 19 July, describing it as “unscientific and unethical”.’

@nimbuscloud

According to the Independent

‘More than 1,200 scientists from around the globe have condemned the prime minister’s decision to forge ahead with so-called “freedom day” on 19 July, describing it as “unscientific and unethical”.’

Because it is completely unethical and against scientific advice.

Yes
An emergency summit convened today called Johnson’s policy a danger to the world because it will allow the Delta variant to spread across the globe.

How many scientists and doctors signed the great barrington declaration?

@Sunshinegirl82

How many scientists and doctors signed the great barrington declaration?

That doesn't count on MN because it doesn't fit the narrative.

Chris Whitty believes lifting the restrictions is the right thing to do, to me he has been cautious, realistic and consistent throughout. If he thinks it's our best shot I'm willing to take his word for it.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/05/chris-whitty-keeping-covid-restrictions-will-only-delay-wave

The delta variant is so transmissible that only severe lockdown contains it, all over 40s have been offered two jabs, 90% of adults have antibodies. Do we go back into lockdown?

Lockdown is not the only effective way. The other most effective way to contain Delta is for as many people as possible to be fully vaccinated.

In the UK approx 50% are fully vaccinated. That doesn't mean being 'offered' vaccines. It means people being at least 2 weeks past their final dose.

@nimbuscloud

Yes An emergency summit convened today called Johnson’s policy a danger to the world because it will allow the Delta variant to spread across the globe.

It already is spreading across the globe 🤷‍♀️

When are we going to realise that we aren’t going to win this one? We are like King Canute. Time to face reality.

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

The delta variant is so transmissible that only severe lockdown contains it, all over 40s have been offered two jabs, 90% of adults have antibodies. Do we go back into lockdown?

Lockdown is not the only effective way. The other most effective way to contain Delta is for as many people as possible to be fully vaccinated.

In the UK approx 50% are fully vaccinated. That doesn't mean being 'offered' vaccines. It means people being at least 2 weeks past their final dose.

Ok, but if we wait until everyone is double vaccinated (ignoring the fact that a month ago it was estimated that 90% of adults had antibodies, that seems to be at or near ceiling levels to me and that the risk/benefit analysis of vaccinating children presents difficulties) we will be heading into winter and the modelling suggested that releasing restrictions then could increase the number of deaths overall?