UK Covid Experiment

[ArmsofOrion]

Has anyone been watching these talks on YouTube. Seems like the rest of the world thinks the Uk is crazy for lifting all restrictions and I agree with them.

For anyone who doesn’t have their head buried in the sand it makes a very interesting discussion, not much you can argue with.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ

the longer restrictions are in place the bigger the backlog will be.

No, the longer restrictions are in place, the fewer number of people taking up NHS resources for covid meaning more other services.

Our hospitals locally had returned to normal service. They have stopped now as they have to many covid cases. My non urgent surgery was cancelled because there are no ITU beds available.

@Wakeupin2022

ZZTopGuitarSola I am glad that your schools did so well. But they managed to do that without Delta.

Apart from the National Closures, our school pretty much kept Covid out. Which meant my children suffered no further disruption. The mitigations that were put in place were excellent and they also all have a table which means that they all can access online learning. I guess some of it is luck, but most of it is down to excellent planning in the school.

That changed a week or so ago and Covid did get into the school. But then we have Delta now. And it's like nothing else that has come before.

The UK would have had hardly a ripple reopening with the Alpha variant! That's what you have managed to deal with so far. Many kids have in US did not have face to face learning for a very long time in the US which is a massive failure for them.

Please, please try and understand you have not felt the impacts of Delta yet perhaps in Maine it is so wonderful that you won't. Hopefully that will be the case. But it may also help you to reconcile yourself that this variant make cause your problems, because being forewarned is forearmed.

I agree with this. Delta is a different beast entirely.

Also, I know Maine well, and it simply cannot be compared to the UK. It may be a relatively poor state, but it is also one of the least populated, which means that spread can be contained more, and there is space to provide the extra facilities that @ZZTopGuitarSolo says have helped to manage distancing.

I agree there are things we can do to make cases start reducing - but only at massive, massive cost, financial and otherwise, and not to the point of making it go away

Here’s the problem. Everyone thinks to keep it down, it’s only restrictions and lockdown that matters. Many of the mitigations are not really restrictions at all.

At some point we have to lift those restrictions, and it’ll still be here.

The point to do that is when we’ve reached at least 70% fully vaccinated.

We kept masks in schools in Scotland

Not really, we didn’t. Masking was pretty much non existent in the last couple of months at our schools. It was left up to pupils to choose. There was one school locally known to be shit hot at making sure the kids were masked, and surprise, surprise, they had the lowest number of kids isolating of any other school in the area.

[quote mog27]@LaurieFairyCake how can the vaccine not work for some people? Surely it should work the same way on everyone? It was never going to stop people from getting covid so I'm curious about how it's not worked for some people. [/quote]
Some people develop a better immune response than others.

We are trying to stay at home as much as possible now. Even to the point where we are considering job changes etc to stay away from it all. It is utter utter madness

BoredZelda

We're at 68.7% adults fully vaccinated so really close

@LaurieFairyCake

BoredZelda

We're at 68.7% adults fully vaccinated so really close

73% in my neck of the woods.

@ladybugsrock

We are trying to stay at home as much as possible now. Even to the point where we are considering job changes etc to stay away from it all. It is utter utter madness

Same here.

We've gone back to online supermarket shopping and are only leaving the house for essential reasons.

Many of the mitigations are not really restrictions at all.

I can’t think of a single useful mitigation that doesn’t have some cost, either in terms of its impact on people’s lives and livelihoods or on the public purse. I think we should keep the testing and sequencing programme in place for a good while yet, for example, but it is still costing an absolute fortune.

The point to do that is when we’ve reached at least 70% fully vaccinated.

Why that, though? 70% of adults isn’t enough for herd immunity for delta. When we get to 70% and somebody else says “no we can’t lift restrictions now, are you mad, the point to do this is when we’ve got 88.3% vaccinated and not a moment sooner”, what’s the argument against?

It seems to have been accepted that herd immunity isn't actually mathematically possible now with the increased transmissibility of delta.

My London borough is very populous and still has only 42% double vaccinated, not even 60% with one dose. National figures are totally irrelevant here :-(

As Chris Whitty stated last year, for most of us the coronavirus will result in a mild illness.

If you're scared, stay home.

It always drifts off into vagueness about “robust border control” or “effective test trace isolate” without any real detail on what that would mean, or how it would be implemented, or what the costs would be and how they would outweigh the benefits.

Yep

It is controllable by people, but it's not controllable with the current level of restrictions. If we want to reduce cases we need to increase restrictions

But what is the point of this? It will only increase when restrictions relax at another date in the future. It is going to happen eventually so lets get it over and done with.

@Katya213

So what do you suggest we do? Stay in lockdowns for the next ten years where you will be blaming the government for that?

Go back to Step 2.

Get numbers back to May levels.

Keep them there with a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system and effective border controls and quarantine.

It went to shit when the government proceeded with Step 3 in a May despite the 4 tests being failed.

@Im2sexyforthissite

As Chris Whitty stated last year, for most of us the coronavirus will result in a mild illness.

If you're scared, stay home.

But it's not that simple is it. Not everyone can just stay at home. I'm petrified however my company has decided that everyone is back in (despite increased performance) so I have no choice. I've been looking for WFH jobs for 2 months with no luck.

@MarshaBradyo

It always drifts off into vagueness about “robust border control” or “effective test trace isolate” without any real detail on what that would mean, or how it would be implemented, or what the costs would be and how they would outweigh the benefits.

Yep

Feel free to give us the detailed run down and full cost/benefit analysis of your plan.

@Im2sexyforthissite

As Chris Whitty stated last year, for most of us the coronavirus will result in a mild illness.

If you're scared, stay home.

People with jobs, and children of school age can't do that.

Go back to Step 2.

In Ireland we are currently in the equivalent of step 2. I’m sure you’d deeply approve Princess, our government are almost as cautious as you are.

But it doesn’t matter, out delta cases are still spiralling out of control.

Delta isn’t containable, outside of March 2020 style lockdown. Who’s going to comply with those levels of restrictions at this stage?

@TheKeatingFive

Go back to Step 2.

In Ireland we are currently in the equivalent of step 2. I’m sure you’d deeply approve Princess, our government are almost as cautious as you are.

But it doesn’t matter, out delta cases are still spiralling out of control.

Delta isn’t containable, outside of March 2020 style lockdown. Who’s going to comply with those levels of restrictions at this stage?

Of course it is

That's why some countries have covid death tolls less than 0.02% of ours.

Of course it is

Perhaps via full, strict lockdown, with no let ups, for the next few years.

Good luck with that.

But definitely not U.K. stage 2 which is what you specifically referenced.

@TheKeatingFive

Of course it is

Perhaps via full, strict lockdown, with no let ups, for the next few years.

Good luck with that.

But definitely not U.K. stage 2 which is what you specifically referenced.

That's not how any of the countries who handled covid effectively have done it.

That's not how any of the countries who handled covid effectively have done it.

Okay let’s turn back time then. How’s that machine coming along?

@PrincessNutNuts

Well maybe not, but from the position we find ourselves in today lockdown would be the only option as far as I can see if we change approach.

@TheKeatingFive

Of course it is

Perhaps via full, strict lockdown, with no let ups, for the next few years.

Good luck with that.

But definitely not U.K. stage 2 which is what you specifically referenced.

NZ has spent a total of fewer than three months in lockdown since the beginning of the pandemic.

For the majority of the time they have been free to do as they wish without any restrictions.

This could have been us, too.