Page 7 | UK Covid Experiment

ArmsofOrion · 2021-07-16T20:09:35+00:00

Has anyone been watching these talks on YouTube. Seems like the rest of the world thinks the Uk is crazy for lifting all restrictions and I agree with them. For anyone who doesn’t have their head buried in the sand it makes a very interesting discussion, not much you can argue with. [[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ]]

TheKeatingFive · 17/07/2021 23:59

This could have been us, too.

🤦‍♀️

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:02

@NannyAndJohn

Setting aside the fact that I don't agree the UK could have done a New Zealand (our supply chains are far too complex and involve far too much people movement) it isn't us.

We are not pursuing a zero covid strategy, it isn't happening, it isn't going to happen. The choices made are not intended to achieve zero covid.

We are where we are.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:03

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

Well maybe not, but from the position we find ourselves in today lockdown would be the only option as far as I can see if we change approach.[/quote]
It only seems like a fortnight since we were in "deaths aren't increasing, hospitalisations are flat, covid is over" season.

It wouldn't take much to get back there now.

But our government plan to let things go so the next lockdown will probably need to be longer than this one.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:03

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@NannyAndJohn

Setting aside the fact that I don't agree the UK could have done a New Zealand (our supply chains are far too complex and involve far too much people movement) it isn't us.

We are not pursuing a zero covid strategy, it isn't happening, it isn't going to happen. The choices made are not intended to achieve zero covid.

We are where we are.[/quote]
That's why we are where we are.

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:05

From 60,000 cases a day I'd guess we'd be looking at around 8-12 weeks of fairly strict lockdown? To get case numbers down to the low thousands? I can't see it would be much quicker than that given the transmissibility of delta.

Im2sexyforthissite · 18/07/2021 00:06

I'm assuming that that those who are petrified have also been vaccinated. Why do you not feel protected?

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:07

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

Well maybe not, but from the position we find ourselves in today lockdown would be the only option as far as I can see if we change approach.[/quote]
It's the same choice it always is when the government has let covid get out of hand and done a few things to make it even worse than it might have been.

Put in place appropriate mitigations to course correct now.

Or later - after thousands of British people have died/gone to hospital/got long covid/other long term damage to the brain/kidneys/lungs...

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:10

@Sunshinegirl82

From 60,000 cases a day I'd guess we'd be looking at around 8-12 weeks of fairly strict lockdown? To get case numbers down to the low thousands? I can't see it would be much quicker than that given the transmissibility of delta.

The government apparently thinks it's going to peak and start dropping of its own accord in six weeks, with no mitigations,

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:10

Honestly, it's like wading though treacle. Constantly talking about where we'd be if we had pursued a zero covid strategy in March 2020 is pointless. We didn't, we haven't and we're not going to.

How does it make any difference to what we do now? It's like being on a train to Manchester and constantly having a go at the guard (and your fellow passengers) that the stops you're going past are not the ones on the way to London.

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:13

@PrincessNutNuts

Well that may work if we reach a wall of immunity, if we lockdown we won't reach that wall of immunity because the whole point of it would be to stop as much transmission as possible.

Cases dropping from the wave burning out and cases dropping from lockdown are not comparable in terms of timeframes.

ladybugsrock · 18/07/2021 00:16

@Im2sexyforthissite

I'm assuming that that those who are petrified have also been vaccinated. Why do you not feel protected?

The stats released the other day/were being discussed on the news were that more people who were double vaccinated died then those without (also based on the numbers in hospital) so it seems that vaccines actually aren't amazing they certainly aren't limiting the transmission

GoldenOmber · 18/07/2021 00:16

Cases are dropping in Scotland, but it looks like our trick there was to have an insanely high delta peak that was nearly double the height of the new year one, so maybe not a model to emulate.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:18

@Sunshinegirl82

Honestly, it's like wading though treacle. Constantly talking about where we'd be if we had pursued a zero covid strategy in March 2020 is pointless. We didn't, we haven't and we're not going to.

How does it make any difference to what we do now? It's like being on a train to Manchester and constantly having a go at the guard (and your fellow passengers) that the stops you're going past are not the ones on the way to London.

We had single figure deaths and low cases a few weeks ago in May.

No one's talking about 16 months ago.

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:21

@ladybugsrock

As more and more of the population are vaccinated you would expect to see more deaths in vaccinated people than unvaccinated. It sounds counter intuitive but it's not! I think this article explains it quite well:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/07/2021 00:26

@NannyAndJohn was talking about it a few posts ago!

We don't have low case numbers now though. We aren't in May. The reason the decision wasn't made in May to abandon the roadmap was because the strategy wasn't to eradicate cases it was to maximise vaccination.

I know you disagree with that approach but I think the die is cast.

OnTheBrink1 · 18/07/2021 00:32

The rest of the world may think we are a laughing stock now but I suspect that soon they will all have to make a very hard choice either way because of Delta too.
There are no good options left. Not for us or any other country in the world. It will come to each in time.

OnTheBrink1 · 18/07/2021 00:34

@princess

OnTheBrink1 · 18/07/2021 00:35

@PrincessNutNuts sadly Even NZ will be facing the same as the UK in time. They have delayed it for sure so who knows- better treatments may be available when they are hit, but they will be hit at some point.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:36

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@NannyAndJohn was talking about it a few posts ago!

We don't have low case numbers now though. We aren't in May. The reason the decision wasn't made in May to abandon the roadmap was because the strategy wasn't to eradicate cases it was to maximise vaccination.

I know you disagree with that approach but I think the die is cast.
[/quote]
And that's why we are where we are.

That's why we're just counting down to the next lockdown now.

And that's why our government did the same thing last summer and will probably do the same thing next summer.

If you're happy with year after year of repeated lockdowns then great.

I'm not.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:37

@OnTheBrink1

The rest of the world may think we are a laughing stock now but I suspect that soon they will all have to make a very hard choice either way because of Delta too. There are no good options left. Not for us or any other country in the world. It will come to each in time.

They're not laughing, they're horrified at a government doing this to their own people.

PrincessNutNuts · 18/07/2021 00:43

[quote OnTheBrink1]@PrincessNutNuts sadly Even NZ will be facing the same as the UK in time. They have delayed it for sure so who knows- better treatments may be available when they are hit, but they will be hit at some point.[/quote]
No. They won't.

Not with Jacinda in charge.

Justa47 · 18/07/2021 01:59

@ArmsofOrion

Government thinking about being a populist government and nothing else.

Screwing it up as they have all they way.

The nhs did the vaccine role out.

BOJo and he tiff mates are useless.

MercyBooth · 18/07/2021 03:22

We've gone back to online supermarket shopping and are only leaving the house for essential reasons

Are you CEV? If so ignore this but surely its better to leave the online slots for those that are.

Wakeupin2022 · 18/07/2021 08:01

NZ are going to have to deal with the virus at some point as they are one of the few places in the world that have tried the zero Covid approach.

It may be that they keep their borders shut, but for how long do they do that?

They are never going to get everyone vaccinated - unless she makes it mandatory. What about the children? No under 12's vaccinated yet.

Vaccines are not as good with Delta as Alpha. It's the same for Pfizer as well as AZ. So even if she gets most vaccinated, there will still be Covid.

At this time, the population are ok with the strict border controls because elsewhere is still struggling with the virus. But how will it be when we are all back to normal and their borders are shut.

NZ have done very well so far. But really the hardest part of their pandemic is ahead of them.

MarshaBradyo · 18/07/2021 08:31

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@NannyAndJohn

Setting aside the fact that I don't agree the UK could have done a New Zealand (our supply chains are far too complex and involve far too much people movement) it isn't us.

We are not pursuing a zero covid strategy, it isn't happening, it isn't going to happen. The choices made are not intended to achieve zero covid.

We are where we are.[/quote]
Sunshine I think it’ll never get through.

After all this time the facts you talk about won’t do it.