UK Covid Experiment

[ArmsofOrion]

Has anyone been watching these talks on YouTube. Seems like the rest of the world thinks the Uk is crazy for lifting all restrictions and I agree with them.

For anyone who doesn’t have their head buried in the sand it makes a very interesting discussion, not much you can argue with.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ

@Sunshinegirl82

How many scientists and doctors signed the great barrington declaration?

From Wikipedia...

While the author's website claims that over 14,000 scientists, 40,000 medical practitioners, and more than 780,000 members of the public signed the declaration,[37]non-primary source neededd] this list – which anyone could sign online and which required merely clicking a checkbox to claim the status of "scientist" – contains numerous clearly-fake names, including "Mr Banana Rama", "Dr Johnny Bananas", "Dr Johnny Fartpants", "Dr Person Fakename", "Harold Shipman", "Professor Notaf Uckingclue", and "Prof Cominic Dummings".[38][39][40] More than 100 psychotherapists, numerous homeopaths, physiotherapists, massage therapists, and other non-relevant people were found to be signatories, including a performer of Khoomei – a Mongolian style of overtone singing – described as a "therapeutic sound practitioner".[39] The Independentt noted that the false signatures put its claims about the breadth of its support in doubt, adding that several within the medical and scientific community were skeptical it enjoyed the support it claimed.[40] In response, Bhattacharya said that they "do not have the resources to audit each signature," and expressed regret for the fact that people had "abused our trust" by adding fake names, but reiterated his belief in broad support for its message based on the volume of correspondence he said he received.[40]

[quote mog27]@LaurieFairyCake how can the vaccine not work for some people? Surely it should work the same way on everyone? It was never going to stop people from getting covid so I'm curious about how it's not worked for some people. [/quote]
That's a bit like saying "why doesn't Covid affect everyone identically... either everyone is asymptomatic, or everyone has a nasty cough for exactly 6 days, or everyone dies?!"

Everyone is different...

To be clear, I think the GBD is mainly nonsense but just goes to show that the scientific community is rarely aligned and that saying "1,200 scientists think this is a disaster" doesn't actually prove anything.

Ok, but if we wait until everyone is double vaccinated (ignoring the fact that a month ago it was estimated that 90% of adults had antibodies, that seems to be at or near ceiling levels to me and that the risk/benefit analysis of vaccinating children presents difficulties) we will be heading into winter and the modelling suggested that releasing restrictions then could increase the number of deaths overall?

If so many have antibodies already, why are the infection rates rising so fast?

Suggestions from the letter signed by the 1200 scientist (and btw you can easily see their names too).

"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."

Because 10% of adults plus children is a lot of people and vaccination reduces the chances of catching covid not eliminates it. That's why all the modelling suggested that an exit wave couldn't be avoided regardless of when we lifted restrictions.

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

Suggestions from the letter signed by the 1200 scientist (and btw you can easily see their names too).

"Instead, the government should delay complete re-opening until everyone, including adolescents, have been offered vaccination and uptake is high, and until mitigation measures, especially adequate ventilation (through investment in CO2 monitors and air filtration devices) and spacing (eg, by reducing class sizes), are in place in schools. Until then, public health measures must include those called for by WHO (universal mask wearing in indoor spaces, even for those vaccinated), the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ventilation and air filtration), and Independent SAGE (effective border quarantine; test, trace isolate, and support). This will ensure that everyone is protected and make it much less likely that we will need further restrictions or lockdowns in the autumn."

I'm not being intentionally difficult but how likely is it that "reduced class sizes will happen"? Where will the teachers come from? We have a lot of those mitigations in place now and the ones we don't have are unlikely to ever happen. Cases are still rising, the current level of restrictions is not stopping the growth in cases.

We either lockdown, hard until all over 12's are vaccinated or we drop restrictions and let the wave rise and fall. Staying in this halfway house purgatory position indefinitely makes no sense.

I think it is more the case a new, far worse variant will be produced during this 'experiment'.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/16/englands-covid-unlocking-a-threat-to-the-world-experts-say

@BoredZelda

It isn’t an experiment. An experiment is when you can’t foresee the outcome. The outcomes here are known.

No. They are not.

I'm not being intentionally difficult but how likely is it that "reduced class sizes will happen"? Where will the teachers come from? We have a lot of those mitigations in place now and the ones we don't have are unlikely to ever happen. Cases are still rising, the current level of restrictions is not stopping the growth in cases.

And yet many other countries have managed, which has helped enable them to reopen without an exit wave. Including mine.

And this is why so much of the world is looking at the UK with dismay.

[quote ArmsofOrion]Has anyone been watching these talks on YouTube. Seems like the rest of the world thinks the Uk is crazy for lifting all restrictions and I agree with them.

For anyone who doesn’t have their head buried in the sand it makes a very interesting discussion, not much you can argue with.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ[/quote]
😳

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

I'm not being intentionally difficult but how likely is it that "reduced class sizes will happen"? Where will the teachers come from? We have a lot of those mitigations in place now and the ones we don't have are unlikely to ever happen. Cases are still rising, the current level of restrictions is not stopping the growth in cases.

And yet many other countries have managed, which has helped enable them to reopen without an exit wave. Including mine.

And this is why so much of the world is looking at the UK with dismay.

Which countries? The vast majority of countries do not yet have delta as the dominant variant. When delta takes off I suspect we will see other countries faced with a similar dilemma.

I keep reading on here that the rest of the world is aghast at our great covid experiment but I’m reality are they? Much of Europe has been pretty much business as usual for a while bar mask wearing. Nightclubs have been open, gatherings allowed etc etc. They are free to travel all over the EU. Friends in Australia are wishing they were here. Other friends here trying to get elderly parents out of Malaysia because they fear they’ll never see them again. The US is pretty much restriction free. Yes it’s been crap here and Boris Johnson is an arse but it’s pretty crap everywhere and noone really knows what the answer is, but I don’t think out big ‘freedom day’ is giving us much more ‘freedom’ than tons of other countries with rising rates already have.

Ok but what should we actually do? Covid isn't going anywhere, the backlog will take years to address. The delta variant is so transmissible that only severe lockdown contains it, all over 40s have been offered two jabs, 90% of adults have antibodies. Do we go back into lockdown?

It is it a choice between lockdown or free reign. There are mitigations that will help reduce the spread. Maintaining distancing and masking, better ventilation, encouraging people to continue working from home if they can. Not immediately going back to mass gatherings where 60k people can sit in a stadium with little restriction.

Using a blunt tool that 90% have antibodies as an argument for removing all restrictions is a misunderstanding of what that actually means.

Do you remember the UK reopening last year? Then closing again because of the UK strain?

We reopened too, and we ended up with the same UK strain, but because we had better mitigations in place we did not have to go back into lockdown. Our schools stayed open, our hospitals coped and our children got their education.

So now we are looking at this Sept and school reopening with Delta spreading. We are offering vaccinations to over-12s and requiring unvaccinated students to continue with mitigations such as mask wearing and distancing and ventilation.

We are not throwing all caution to the wind and declaring everything reopened forever and fuck the consequences, as the UK appears to be doing.

@falafellala

I keep reading on here that the rest of the world is aghast at our great covid experiment but I’m reality are they? Much of Europe has been pretty much business as usual for a while bar mask wearing. Nightclubs have been open, gatherings allowed etc etc. They are free to travel all over the EU. Friends in Australia are wishing they were here. Other friends here trying to get elderly parents out of Malaysia because they fear they’ll never see them again. The US is pretty much restriction free. Yes it’s been crap here and Boris Johnson is an arse but it’s pretty crap everywhere and noone really knows what the answer is, but I don’t think out big ‘freedom day’ is giving us much more ‘freedom’ than tons of other countries with rising rates already have.

Yes we genuinely are aghast.

@x2boys

People moan when we have restrictions and refuse to follow them, and moan when they are being lifted 🤷‍♀️

Yep, certainly a puzzling psychological perspective

@BoredZelda

Ok but what should we actually do? Covid isn't going anywhere, the backlog will take years to address. The delta variant is so transmissible that only severe lockdown contains it, all over 40s have been offered two jabs, 90% of adults have antibodies. Do we go back into lockdown?

It is it a choice between lockdown or free reign. There are mitigations that will help reduce the spread. Maintaining distancing and masking, better ventilation, encouraging people to continue working from home if they can. Not immediately going back to mass gatherings where 60k people can sit in a stadium with little restriction.

Using a blunt tool that 90% have antibodies as an argument for removing all restrictions is a misunderstanding of what that actually means.

But, again, we have those restrictions in place now don't we? And they haven't worked to stop cases rising.

I can see the logic behind opening up now, I can see the logic behind locking down hard until all over 12's are vaccinated. I cannot see the logic in continuing with a raft of half way house restrictions restrictions that have significant economic impact but will, at best, delay hospitalisations and deaths for a few weeks. Especially when the modelling suggests that the delay may actually increase the number of deaths.

But, again, we have those restrictions in place now don't we? And they haven't worked to stop cases rising.

No you don't, particularly in schools which contain your least vaccinated population. It was completely predictable that the UK would have a massive exit wave.

ZZTopGuitarSolo- where do you live?

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

Do you remember the UK reopening last year? Then closing again because of the UK strain?

We reopened too, and we ended up with the same UK strain, but because we had better mitigations in place we did not have to go back into lockdown. Our schools stayed open, our hospitals coped and our children got their education.

So now we are looking at this Sept and school reopening with Delta spreading. We are offering vaccinations to over-12s and requiring unvaccinated students to continue with mitigations such as mask wearing and distancing and ventilation.

We are not throwing all caution to the wind and declaring everything reopened forever and fuck the consequences, as the UK appears to be doing.

The issues that prevent us from putting in place better mitigations are systemic and the reality is that they can't be fixed in the time frame available.

We can't do the necessary construction work to all the schools to increase ventilation, we can't recruit hundreds of new teachers to decrease class sizes, we can't improve housing in heavily populated and deprived areas, I could go on.

Now it's shit that we are in that position (and something I hope people remember come the next election) but it is what it is and we can only deal with the situation as it actually exists, not the hypothetical situation we might all like.

@falafellala

ZZTopGuitarSolo- where do you live?

I live in Maine. Not a rich state.

We did not hire loads of teachers. We did not reconstruct our schools. We did invest in technology so that students could learn at home, and we ran hybrid school until we felt our cases were low enough to run all-in school.

We used marquees, gyms, staggered start/end times, and we were creative with lunch programs. We put in air filtration systems. We used seating plans.

Our students wore masks to school even when our case rate was down to 5/100k.

We also opened pubs and bars last, because drunk people don't socially distance, and delayed large scale events until cases were rock bottom.

If Delta does cause a big increase in infections we will reintroduce mitigations so that we don't have to go back into lockdown.

The U.K. just really isn't comparable to the states. Are you from the U.K.? Have you been here?

We are very densely populated (about 8 times more populated than the US). Some schools in small towns just wouldn't have the number of alternative buildings/spaces available.

We could reintroduce mask wearing in schools (it was only dropped a few weeks ago) although given that they break up for the Summer holidays in a week there doesn't seem much point now.

Oh and we also did a lot of those things, my DS's school still operates staggered start and finish times, no parents in the school, masks for collection and drop offs, windows and doors open all the time including all winter (DC sent in in thermals), children only mixing within their bubble, hone schooling for significant periods.