Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Mmmmm, doesn't want to post link....

Try this: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Daily admissions and beds, at the bottom of the page.

Thanks for new thread.

It's getting quite shit up here!

This is anecdotal but nursery and asking any child with snotty nose or mild tummy issues to be tested now, citing widening symptoms.

Also anecdotal, sorry, but I know of a lot of teaching staff in sen schools who've caught it despite double jabs. Yes it's going to happen, (Conjecture) I suppose it's this possible Y-I variant (maybe aka the tetley T variant?) and that's it's USP?

.

Based on Scotland's numbers, UK is receiving extra 3.4 million vaccines this week (largely mRNA - we stopped distributing AZ to nations/regions a while back).

Sounds like the expectation of Pfizer UK CEO that the supply will double from mid-July is coming true.

I am wondering what we will decide on second doses. There may be a trade off between speed and efficacy but when cases are high, arguably 66% protection achieved with the reduced interval might be good enough.

On the other hand, Zoe's numbers have gone down for the first time in weeks.

I know it is only one day and the tide might not have turned (yet) but Zoe so far has got every single spike and drop of cases right.

Not investigating a NE variant

www.northumberlandgazette.co.uk/health/coronavirus/public-health-england-say-they-are-not-investigating-a-new-covid-variant-in-the-north-east-3303149

@sirfredfredgeorge

are "admissions" not by definition "new people in hospital"

I think a lot of people assumed that, but no, it's any attendance at hospital, so you visit a walk in centre 'cos you're concerned but are sent away again saying "you're fine". That is still an admission in the stats.

In normal times such admissions are counted distinctly, but there's no public data on such covid admissions, however it was recently reported that 1/3rd were such in some group, but we don't know how that compares with anywhere else, or on any other days.

I wouldn't think so, I should think you would have to be admitted to a ward, not just seen at A and E. There are acute wards to which A and E can admit for observation, which is different to just being seen and reviewed.

Also, people who are known or thought to have covid don't attend A and E or minor injuries centres cheek by jowl with other users, there is a different protocol for them.

I found this, which suggests that the terminology in April started to be used in a different way, which really doesn't help clarity, especially as this doesn't seem to have been explained.www.cebm.net/covid-19/are-covid-19-patients-in-hospital-or-admitted-to-hospital/

sorry www.cebm.net/covid-19/are-covid-19-patients-in-hospital-or-admitted-to-hospital/

@sirfredfredgeorge

are "admissions" not by definition "new people in hospital"

I think a lot of people assumed that, but no, it's any attendance at hospital, so you visit a walk in centre 'cos you're concerned but are sent away again saying "you're fine". That is still an admission in the stats.

In normal times such admissions are counted distinctly, but there's no public data on such covid admissions, however it was recently reported that 1/3rd were such in some group, but we don't know how that compares with anywhere else, or on any other days.

Unless things have changed recently, DH says no, admissions are just that. Bums on ward beds. A&E and walk in centres are separate reporting areas. Attending A&E is a metric, how many hours in A&E, admission to a hospital bed is different.

Anyone got the current doubling time for cases? And this time I’ll bookmark the Twitter person!

16 days

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1414964460666642433

Thanks @wintertravel1980

Fingers crossed cases keep stalling. If the weekend we just had doesn’t turbo charge it, then nothing will!

I am worried about nightclubs/nightlife but I am also thinking there has to be a significant overlap with the football crowds.

As one of the posters has put it, the self-sacrifice recently made by young men might have brought us closer to herd immunity.

And I am really, really wondering what the next steps are in the vaccination program. Supply is not an issue. What is happening to the second doses and what are we doing about CEV 12-15 year olds? I personally believe we should offer the first dose to vulnerable teenagers asap and hope JCVI are discussing the topic now.

I am on the fence regarding vaccinating healthy teenagers (especially boys who are more likely to develop side effects).

"I am worried about nightclubs/nightlife but I am also thinking there has to be a significant overlap with the football crowds."

Spain had reopened them 2-3 weeks agoo and loads of cases are linked to it. They have now 1. closed them. 2. asked for test/vaccine proof if they keep them opened.

I believe the government is trying to encourage the nightclub owners to take approach 2 in here, not sure whether it'd be popular

I am worried about nightclubs/nightlife but I am also thinking there has to be a significant overlap with the football crowds

I'm more worried about September/October. With universities, colleges and schools all on Summer (or certainly by the end of next week) the increase in cases from nightclubs will be offset with the drop in education transmission. For every MNetter that's says but they socialise they socialise in much smaller groups than the amount of people they get exposed to in a school setting (especially GCSE and above)

Come September when everything is back and no isolation and no attempt whatsoever to mitigate spread cases will spiral.

Has anyone seen any recent data on the concern is Israel about vaccine immunity dropping?

Night club owners say it’s not feasible- would take 10 times longer to admit each customer (sorry can’t post source but it was a BBC article).....

Has anyone seen any recent data on the concern is Israel about vaccine immunity dropping?

We do not really know whether Israel's data (66% effectiveness) reflects waning immunity or lower Pfizer effectiveness against Delta with the 3 weeks gap. Real life data seems to suggest that a longer interval between the two doses increases protection.

Both Canada and UK who have gone for a longer gap and also vaccinated people later reported a much higher efficacy - 88%. For now we cannot really identify the main driver - looks like we need more data.

"Has anyone seen any recent data on the concern is Israel about vaccine immunity dropping?"

There's not enough data to know for sure as it's a small sample size and they vaccinated in a similar order to us so it's older people who'd be expected to have a reduced immune response anyway. It's probably a case of waiting a couple of months to see if we see the same thing in people who were vaccinated in March.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Night club owners say it’s not feasible- would take 10 times longer to admit each customer (sorry can’t post source but it was a BBC article).....

They could easily work on a Guestlist or ticket basis where you have to send them a picture of your ID with negative LFT or proof of vaccination in advance.

Does circulating covid boost immunity or is it irrelevant, I believe with chickenpox supposedly the regular exposure of vaccinated people to the virus reduces waning immunity, is there anything similar identified with covid? Both with infection acquired and vaccine acquired?

Just thinking that could also show in the Israel data as they did reduce cases to almost no circulating virus?

Nightclubs with smaller numbers going in more slowly would be a lot safer (I appreciate this might not be seen as a good business model)

Thanks all, that makes sense regarding Israel and not enough data (I'm particularly interested as those that I know that have developed covid were vaccinated early, this is obviously not relevant to this thread as no data but its why I'm interested)

They could easily work on a Guestlist or ticket basis where you have to send them a picture of your ID with negative LFT or proof of vaccination in advance I do agree with technology I do not understand why this isn't possible, I guess the reluctance of nightclub owners is the fact that people don't tend to plan nights when they are out out!

I have noticed that the doubling time is getting longer. This must be good surely, schools are still in, lots of testing still being done so I can’t see any other reason for it.

@Pleasedontputthatthere

I have noticed that the doubling time is getting longer. This must be good surely, schools are still in, lots of testing still being done so I can’t see any other reason for it.

The positivity rate is up though which suggests that we're not testing enough. There are probably a lot of people avoiding testing because they don't want their kids to miss end of term or they don't want to miss a UK holiday.

I have noticed that the doubling time is getting longer.

Based on trends from earlier hotspots (Bolton, Blackburn), the exponential growth seems to eventually "run out of steam". Cases stabilise and then slowly start dropping. There may still be ebbs and flows (e.g. Bolton is currently on the rise in comparison to where it was 2 weeks ago) but Covid can no longer spread uncontrollably (as it was the case with Alpha).

Here is Blackburn that was completely off the charts in the boys3 graphs a few weeks ago.