Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Meanwhile, Pagel et al respond:

www.johnsnowmemo.com/response.html?fbclid=IwAR1IOEJd-2UqsdiqfQmurwRN6YYj8z4jq-JEXD9REuMNRhoJ4mJcugSrW1o

Although the number of people who have been vaccinated is
known with high accuracy, the number who have not been vaccinated is not

One for @Mrex to get annoyed about.

Hmm, that SAGE report is not nearly as optimistic as Whitty et al made it sound.....

Can only find this reported in the Daily Mirror, apologies, but lots of verbatim quotes from the Health Secretary - not very encouraging for CEV folk:

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/vulnerable-warned-avoid-indoor-spaces-24517863?fbclid=IwAR2lz8qM99S2sLqq3PmzF8dH_sIZaUloz-Tgc23YEk5sFv_MtsWKpU026oI

Is it just me or did the slide of infections and hospitalisations of this wave versus the last just show that there is only a delay of two doublings in the rise of hospitalisations versus the last wave? Also the current trajectory is only slightly less than the last wave at this point. It looks more that it just took slightly longer to reach the more vulnerable population this time (possibly a result of letting it run rampant in schools).

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Hmm, that SAGE report is not nearly as optimistic as Whitty et al made it sound.....

Can only find this reported in the Daily Mirror, apologies, but lots of verbatim quotes from the Health Secretary - not very encouraging for CEV folk:

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/vulnerable-warned-avoid-indoor-spaces-24517863?fbclid=IwAR2lz8qM99S2sLqq3PmzF8dH_sIZaUloz-Tgc23YEk5sFv_MtsWKpU026oI[/quote]
Whitty can't possibly have believed what he was saying, he's clearly been strong armed. If you paid close attention to what Vallance said, he clearly was not in agreement.

It looks more that it just took slightly longer to reach the more vulnerable population this time

I don't really see how that works though, we have cases peaking in a number of areas, and given that, how is it going to get into those vulnerable people if it hasn't already? Whilst there's still a lot of people in other areas who will catch it, why would their experiences be different?

@sirfredfredgeorge

It looks more that it just took slightly longer to reach the more vulnerable population this time

I don't really see how that works though, we have cases peaking in a number of areas, and given that, how is it going to get into those vulnerable people if it hasn't already? Whilst there's still a lot of people in other areas who will catch it, why would their experiences be different?

There have been almost zero control measures in schools versus the rest of the population (plus we're probably finding more cases in school children since they're so heavily tested now) - case numbers would naturally be higher in the young than in previous waves but that eventually filters out into the rest of the population.

@sirfredfredgeorge

*Although the number of people who have been vaccinated is known with high accuracy, the number who have not been vaccinated is not*

One for @Mrex to get annoyed about.

Well yes, quite. That said, we also don't know:

1. how many have been jabbed abroad (neighbours and a work colleague, a few friends' teenagers will be this summer),
2. nor do we list those in trials (some of whom are getting jabbed with something else to get covid passes and duplicating),
3. nor do we know how many were jabbed here and then went overseas (friend's MIL for example). We presume these are all small numbers, below 1m together. But sufficient to dispute that we really know with great accuracy how many have been vaccinated. We also don't know:
4. the antibody threshold for infection immunity to count them in herd immunity,
5. nor do we calculate efficacy based on vaccine (longer for AZ to reach full immunity as it's 4 weeks not 2),
6. nor for that matter have any calculations been shown en masse that make clear assumptions about waning immunity (if it exists, but plausible).

@Mrex Are you suggesting that the Models might not be that reliable due to all that?

@JanFebAnyMonth

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf

Haven’t read it yet, but noticed lots of redacted names under the Observers and Govt Officials list at the end, is that normal, haven’t noticed it before?

More than usual I think. Could include lots of extra observers from different departments there for this redacted item: " Initial results from human challenge studies in unvaccinated young adults were reported verbally and will be reviewed in detail at NERVTAG before being discussed at SAGE". It's a very interesting one.

[quote sirfredfredgeorge]@Mrex Are you suggesting that the Models might not be that reliable due to all that?[/quote]
I agree with all the bits that say "there is high uncertainty".

Really liked the new simple vaccination map on the covid dashboard and the way you can move between first and second dose, very simple. Isle of Wight is doing well

Here's the latest SPI -M summary and the modelling it was based on.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-4-on-19-july-2021-7-july-2021

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/12/analysis-rising-hospitalisation-rates-have-panicked-prime-minister/

Rising hospitalisations
Mr Johnson will also be worried about hospitalisations, which have been on a clear upward trajectory since late May. This trend has not so much shown the link between severe illness and cases to be broken, but has reaffirmed it. In the last seven days alone, more than 3,000 Covid-19 patients have been admitted to hospital, up nearly 60 per cent on the week before.

To make matters worse, the current daily tally of more than 500 new oxygen-thirsty hospital admissions is some way above what modelling passed to ministers was predicting at the end of last month.

There’s still hopeful talk of better outcomes for Covid-19 patients, but ICU admissions are climbing fast and have more than doubled in less than a month.

Normality or disaster
The latest Sage papers, dated July 7 and published on Monday, also make for grim reading. Their central message is this: July 19 could be a stepping stone to normality or an unmitigated disaster – everything will hinge on how people across the country react.

[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Hmm, that SAGE report is not nearly as optimistic as Whitty et al made it sound.....

Can only find this reported in the Daily Mirror, apologies, but lots of verbatim quotes from the Health Secretary - not very encouraging for CEV folk:

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/vulnerable-warned-avoid-indoor-spaces-24517863?fbclid=IwAR2lz8qM99S2sLqq3PmzF8dH_sIZaUloz-Tgc23YEk5sFv_MtsWKpU026oI[/quote]
Actually, it's nice that this is at least being discussed.

the current daily tally of more than 500 new oxygen-thirsty hospital admissions is some way above what modelling passed to ministers was predicting at the end of last month

There are not 500 new oxygen thirsty hospital admissions though, In England there are less than 200 new hospital patients in recent days, and less then 20 new ventilation patients. For there to be 500 new "oxygen thirsty" admissions there would need to be well over 400 deaths per day, or 400 discharges of course, but then from needing oxygen to discharge does not take a day.

That's just sensationalist misleading reporting.

(just to be clear that the 200 is admissions net of discharges, including it seems the reported 1/3rd that have no overnight stay at all)

Hospitalisations now rising at the same rate as in the Second Wave.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

Hospitalisations could peak at 7000 a day.

Large Fourth Wave expected in the winter,

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf

www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz

Interesting article from NZ. I can kind of see the argument for opening now (least worse option?) but am quite worried about the potential consequences that are outlined in this article.

Courtesy of RP131on Twitter:

Re: North East and Signal

I think it is something to do with a PCR drop out or similar.

I think that’s what they mean by a signal. We will soon see.

And another, still looking different to the previous wave.

To me, @Sunshinegirl82, it appears that we are on a similar trajectory but just lagged a bit.

How long is the "lag"?