Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Also 40,000 at Latitude is an interesting experiment!

I seem to remember Patrick Vallance (or someone similar?) saying recently that this wave may well be more prolonged and include some up and down movement in case numbers - but possibly a lower peak overall, just longer as there isn't a lockdown to bring numbers down now (but equally vaccinations may help keep them lower than the January peak?). So a few days of lower cases doesn't necessarily mean the trend is now downwards from here anytime soon.

Like another poster said, I'm also suspicious of the lower case numbers, especially as the ONS survey shows cases are continuing to rise as reported here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217

ONS results only go to July 17 (with lower level of confidence post July 14). Their findings will not capture the latest drops. Cases "peaked" (probably, temporarily) on July 15.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23july2021

[quote nordica]I seem to remember Patrick Vallance (or someone similar?) saying recently that this wave may well be more prolonged and include some up and down movement in case numbers - but possibly a lower peak overall, just longer as there isn't a lockdown to bring numbers down now (but equally vaccinations may help keep them lower than the January peak?). So a few days of lower cases doesn't necessarily mean the trend is now downwards from here anytime soon.

Like another poster said, I'm also suspicious of the lower case numbers, especially as the ONS survey shows cases are continuing to rise as reported here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57942217[/quote]
ONS was to 17th July. Already out of date.

I might sound like a broken record on the nightlife topic. I love fun and socialising and my risk appetite to Covid is well above average. However, I cannot deny the obvious fact that nightclubs are a big riskf factor.

Agreed, but we are in a slightly different position in that those most likely to go to a nightclub are also most likely to have already been mixing for the last 2 months anyway. Whereas in the Netherlands those going to clubs didn't have the option to mix in bars and restaurants.

@lonelyplanet

Also 40,000 at Latitude is an interesting experiment!

Be interesting to know the % of vaccinated adults. Pretty damn high I reckon.

Do the govt actually give any results for these “test events”?

How can they when hardly anyone does the follow up test?

@QueenStromba

How can they when hardly anyone does the follow up test?

Well, there should have been a £10 deposit that you get back when you do the PCR test.

Think Latitude will have a decent data set. Just nothing to compare it to. But actually this is great for the govt, because probably there is decent vaccination coverage so they can claim all is fine.

[quote weddread]@wintertravel1980 very interesting!

I had assumed that anyone who wants to visit a nightclub was already out in bars, house parties etc and not worried about social distancing / catching it.

I went into Pret today and they have removed every trace of Covid - plastic screens are down, employees not wearing masks etc. Brave move![/quote]
I'd imagine it's the mixing of large groups that is different. Even if you regularly have house parties of 30+ people, they're likely to often be the same 30+ people. Some people might have 2 or more separate friendship groups, like local friends and work colleagues but it's still a set number of social contacts. Nightclubs bring lots of those different social circles into the same venue with mixing between the groups and obviously shouting, dancing, sweat dripping off the ceiling means it's ideal spreading conditions.

I remember Korea having a nightclub super spreader early on in the pandemic who was responsible for over a hundred cases. That would have been the original variant which is half as transmissible as delta.

@wintertravel1980

Didn't they open pretty much everything at the same time though - bars, restaurants, clubs, etc?

They did but:

1. Based on their test and trace info, most of the large clusters were traced back to nightclubs and discos.
2. After Netherlands closed nightclubs, cases peaked and have now started going down. The government did not do anything else, e.g. they did not re-introduce mask mandates (masks are only required on public transport and planes).

I might sound like a broken record on the nightlife topic. I love fun and socialising and my risk appetite to Covid is well above average. However, I cannot deny the obvious fact that nightclubs are a big riskf factor. We have still got several million of susceptible population in the 18-29 age group who may (i) catch Covid and (ii) pass it on to others. The spillover impact into vulnerable groups is inevitable. Our strategy has to be to manage the spread. The good news is that the Netherlands case and our own very recent example both indicate it may actually be doable.

The cases are clearly going down and no, it is not schools - it is Euro finals.

I do agree that night clubs will be the first restriction bought back in if cases shoot up. Much like the Netherlands did.

@Bordois

I might sound like a broken record on the nightlife topic. I love fun and socialising and my risk appetite to Covid is well above average. However, I cannot deny the obvious fact that nightclubs are a big riskf factor.

Agreed, but we are in a slightly different position in that those most likely to go to a nightclub are also most likely to have already been mixing for the last 2 months anyway. Whereas in the Netherlands those going to clubs didn't have the option to mix in bars and restaurants.

The Netherlands had a 4 step plan like us. Restaurants, bars and cafes opened for indoor service on 1st June as part of stage 3. The full reopening was on 25th June. The spike in infections was 2 weeks post 25th june.

The Netherlands had a 4 step plan like us. Restaurants, bars and cafes opened for indoor service on 1st June as part of stage 3. The full reopening was on 25th June. The spike in infections was 2 weeks post 25th june.

Fair enough, the link i read seemed to imply they opened all at once but maybe i read it wrong.

Makes me wonder why the U.K. attracted more criticism with the ‘unprecedented approach’ narrative if the Netherlands did it already.

Probably becuase it was a total failure in the Netherlands which led to a uturn 2 weeks later and the UK did not learn from their mistake.

Still not unprecedented though.

Funny how we get that

Who said it was unprecedented?

Loads on here. Probably elsewhere. Cba trawling.

But definitely criticism around us being first to do this. The ‘experiment’ or whatever.

Personally I hope it goes the same way as giving AZ to over 65 when others didn’t.

Huge criticism around that but turned out well. I think many are egging on failure though, sadly!

We need a new thread!

@MarshaBradyo

Makes me wonder why the U.K. attracted more criticism with the ‘unprecedented approach’ narrative if the Netherlands did it already.

I think Netherlands had a low case rate when they reopened, whereas ours was very high.

Tupla maybe although I still think it’s hospitalisation not cases at this point.

Perhaps that’s part of it ROW is still more focussed on cases.

I don’t think it’s terrible yet but will see what happens as we do the final part

seriously everyone - ANOTHER new thread needed? :)

@MarshaBradyo

Personally I hope it goes the same way as giving AZ to over 65 when others didn’t.

Huge criticism around that but turned out well. I think many are egging on failure though, sadly!

I think the difference was that the majority of the scientific community saw evidence that the delay in 2nd doses was worthwhile and there was a theoretical basis for doing so whereas very few scientists are backing the UKs current approach.