Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Hmm so it is now saying there is an increased risk of reinfection with delta

It is a risk of getting infected with Delta for someone who has already been infected either with Alpha or the original variant.

Some studies show that acquired immunity is not too dissimilar to immunity from vaccination. The protection against Delta may be lower but it does not fall to zero - it just goes down by a few percentage points.

Also, most people who have been vaccinated or had Covid previously are more likely to have a milder case next time round.

It makes the government's youth herd immunity strategy look all the more stupid if they are all going to catch it again in the winter anyway

Just add as well, that if there is not a vaccine that prevents infection ie "reduced effectiveness of the vaccine", and "more transmissible" then the measures we've had that typically only just got R below 1 would likely not be sufficient, although it depends how much the reduction in effectiveness is in the vaccinated and past infected.

The trial ended in June but definitely (in our case) included a big delta surge.

Daily LFTs as part of the trial weren't allowed for confirmed contacts of delta variant cases until around 3rd June.

These participation pauses occurred at 14 schools, 5 due to school capacity issues, 6 due to school or public health agency concern about Delta variant, and 3 due to public health concern about cases in the school as a result of transmission in the community.

This is a problem when you are only looking at 63 daily LFT schools actually having cases to contact trace in the first place. So if 14 of them duck out of the trial when they don't have enough testing capacity or there are concerns about how riddled the school is with covid, this casts doubt on the legitimacy of your data in a high infection rate situation.

'So catching it again in the winter is "fine" if the protection against hospitalisation remains.'

It is not fine if your whole strategy for opening up now is based on reducing infections and hence hospitalisations in the winter. There is still a link between infections and hospitalisations even if it is significantly weaker than it was.

36,389! the graph is going down :)

I'm suspicious of the drop this week.

Why can't I enjoy it?!

Instead I'm all

Eeek! This is really good news.

@ILookAtTheFloor

I'm suspicious of the drop this week.

Why can't I enjoy it?!

Instead I'm all

enjoy the "good" news for when the bad ones come. 36k is not a good number as it's still ill people, but better 36k than 100k

Not everyone is ill.

I know two people test positive this week with no symptoms. They're just very sad to miss a planned event this Sunday.

And do masks really make that much of a difference? I doubt it.

Nightclubs maybe, but there's been a hell of a lot of mixing recently without nightclubs.

I'm not saying that it'll get bad again, but surely the most significant changes were in Step 3?

*that it won't get bad again.

Day 2 of a drop in numbers over the same day a week ago,
13% fewer tests than a week ago but 29% fewer cases than last Friday and the weekly rate of increase has dropped to just over 10%

Nightclubs maybe, but there's been a hell of a lot of mixing recently without nightclubs.

I'm not saying that it'll get bad again, but surely the most significant changes were in Step 3?

Those are my thoughts - most changes came in May, and those that would go to nightclubs were likely already mixing in bars and pubs anyway.

@Indigopearl

'So catching it again in the winter is "fine" if the protection against hospitalisation remains.'

It is not fine if your whole strategy for opening up now is based on reducing infections and hence hospitalisations in the winter. There is still a link between infections and hospitalisations even if it is significantly weaker than it was.

it isn't clear that immunity after infection mid 2020 will last long enough to protect through the winter till March 21 - it may well not

If people get some residual physical damage for example to their lungs from an initial covid infection, then they may be more rather than less vulnerable in the event of a subsequent infection (I haven't seen much written on this, but would wonder how the data will turn out)

@Bordois

Nightclubs maybe, but there's been a hell of a lot of mixing recently without nightclubs.

I'm not saying that it'll get bad again, but surely the most significant changes were in Step 3?

Those are my thoughts - most changes came in May, and those that would go to nightclubs were likely already mixing in bars and pubs anyway.

Some nightclubs are also imposing strict policies - one I know of in East London reopened this week and requested people to LFT before coming, they have since updated their policy and it is now mandatory -Ive PCR or LFT for entry, they have also mandated that they’re registered with NHS and taken within 48hrs of entry. They are only refunding for confirmed positives. Obviously there is the risk people will lie, but that’s there with all self-reported test scenarios. They have been stressing how they’re so glad to be open again and want to stay open, so hopefully it’ll be successful for them.

It is not fine if your whole strategy for opening up now is based on reducing infections and hence hospitalisations in the winter. There is still a link between infections and hospitalisations even if it is significantly weaker than it was

No, this is exactly why it would be "fine", because the recent infection from now would provide strong protection from hospitalisation - remember the evidence is that whilst there's not protection from re-infection, there is protection from hospitalisation.

@Whatever9999

Day 2 of a drop in numbers over the same day a week ago, 13% fewer tests than a week ago but 29% fewer cases than last Friday and the weekly rate of increase has dropped to just over 10%

I really do think that a lot of what we're seeing here is due to a drop off in LFT testing. Most of the drop in testing numbers is due to a large reduction in LFTs being reported. We could just be missing a lot more asymptomatic cases or cases without the PCR test symptoms. If a decent chunk of PCRs are confirming a positive LFT than this would also explain the drop in test positivity. The drop just seems a bit too good to be true but we won't really know until the ONS data for this period is out in a few weeks. Notably, Zoe is no longer showing a drop off since they adjusted their methodology.

@Bordois

Nightclubs maybe, but there's been a hell of a lot of mixing recently without nightclubs.

I'm not saying that it'll get bad again, but surely the most significant changes were in Step 3?

Those are my thoughts - most changes came in May, and those that would go to nightclubs were likely already mixing in bars and pubs anyway.

Was this the case in The Netherlands? They had a significant increase in cases after opening nightclubs.

Lack of immunity is not general lack of immunity, it's reduced protection against new variants because they are too different than the original infections. Infections now will protect against Delta; they might have reduced efficacy against Beta.

@wintertravel1980

Hmm so it is now saying there is an increased risk of reinfection with delta

It is a risk of getting infected with Delta for someone who has already been infected either with Alpha or the original variant.

Some studies show that acquired immunity is not too dissimilar to immunity from vaccination. The protection against Delta may be lower but it does not fall to zero - it just goes down by a few percentage points.

Also, most people who have been vaccinated or had Covid previously are more likely to have a milder case next time round.

Ok this is interesting

I was going to ask about what it meant precisely

Good news indeed, sorry if its already been mentioned but has this happened in the previous two waves? A dip like this?

Was this the case in The Netherlands? They had a significant increase in cases after opening nightclubs.

Didn't they open pretty much everything at the same time though - bars, restaurants, clubs, etc?

Forgot link... 🙄

www.government.nl/latest/news/2021/06/18/netherlands-to-take-big-step-in-relaxing-measures-almost-everything-allowed-with-1-5-metre-distancing

The LFTs will drop off as schools close as we don't have to do them over the summer.

Whether schools shutting will also lead to a drop in cases we'll have to see. Was there one at half term?

Didn't they open pretty much everything at the same time though - bars, restaurants, clubs, etc?

They did but:

1. Based on their test and trace info, most of the large clusters were traced back to nightclubs and discos.
2. After Netherlands closed nightclubs, cases peaked and have now started going down. The government did not do anything else, e.g. they did not re-introduce mask mandates (masks are only required on public transport and planes).

I might sound like a broken record on the nightlife topic. I love fun and socialising and my risk appetite to Covid is well above average. However, I cannot deny the obvious fact that nightclubs are a big riskf factor. We have still got several million of susceptible population in the 18-29 age group who may (i) catch Covid and (ii) pass it on to others. The spillover impact into vulnerable groups is inevitable. Our strategy has to be to manage the spread. The good news is that the Netherlands case and our own very recent example both indicate it may actually be doable.

The cases are clearly going down and no, it is not schools - it is Euro finals.

@wintertravel1980 very interesting!

I had assumed that anyone who wants to visit a nightclub was already out in bars, house parties etc and not worried about social distancing / catching it.

I went into Pret today and they have removed every trace of Covid - plastic screens are down, employees not wearing masks etc. Brave move!