Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

With regards to the reduction in the gap between vaccines. I would worry that contrary to new evidence in trials, shorter gaps have now been demonstrated to be less effective. Indeed, the longer the gap, the better. Of course, as with all these things, it is a balancing act to getting everyone double jabbed asap. However, as we see in Israel, does the shorter gap subsequently require a booster, would a longer gap negate that, what is the consequence of leaving longer gaps versus infection control. I actually don't envy those who will have to make this decision.

Thanks!

Perhaps the efficacy in the vaccine gaps makes less of a difference when it's younger people. Symptomatic infection in young people generally does not have a poor outcome anyways.

Checking in

Thank you @boys3, I really appreciate everyone’s hard work on this thread

Whilst I understand that longer gap = more efficacy, those currently awaiting their 2nd dose are at the younger end of the age spectrum and therefore should be least affected by covid and have stronger immune systems. If they can be boosted from 10% to 66% (as Israel) that is probably a good trade off.

Thanks Boys.

Thank you

(VWood)

Data will be very interesting over the next couple of weeks!

The answer re the NE?

inews.co.uk/news/politics/new-covid-19-variant-may-have-emerged-in-north-east-surge-1094420?fbclid=IwAR37p3hgfdR5-A_H5MZoaYjOEPfJz2KBBr7CJH6usWYpeALBakKDDBV3OBA

An interesting article JanFebAnyMonth but what the heck do they mean by a new "signal"? Is this a scientific term or are they just talking in riddles to make a story out of speculation.

Thanks for the new thread boys3.

Thanks boys

Following.

I think looking it up that a signal is when something is happening in the area which doesnt follow the expected pattern of the variant that is around. So cases in the NE are not at the moment the same as the rest of the UK so that is a signal that there might be a new variant at play causing it.

At least I think that is what it means

Jan It could be a sub-branch of the "Yorkshire" variant (parodied with whippets and proper tea on MN)

If it's a Newcastle variant they won't need greek letters, it'll be called Y-I.

Yes, any long run of data can produce a signal - it just means small deviations from what you’d expect which alert us to some change, doesn’t it?
(Non scientist though!)

Sorry, I meant that the small changes alert us to something potentially having significantly changed in the subject/cause

@MRex

If it's a Newcastle variant they won't need greek letters, it'll be called Y-I.

I was going to put that. Does it mean you have to dye your cropped hair blonde, drink beer and take your footy top off?

@MRex

If it's a Newcastle variant they won't need greek letters, it'll be called Y-I.

It's because they don't wear coats.

bylinetimes.com/2021/07/08/governments-mass-infection-plan-pushed-by-great-barrington-declaration-lobbying-effort-to-end-covid-protections/

@MikeHat - that's the test for the Newcastle variant, if someone puts on long sleeves then you know it's a covid variant.
(Fond memories of standing on a Metro platform at 7am on a Saturday morning when it was minus 2. I had 2 tops, jumper, coat, jeans and big boots. A lady next to me wearing a crop top, long belt and strappy heels turned to her friend and said she was starting to think she should have brought a scarf...)

I meant "you know it's a Covid fever".

@JanFebAnyMonth

Sorry, I meant that the small changes alert us to something potentially having significantly changed in the subject/cause

Yes that is how I see it - that the NE isnt following the pattern of the others and is having increased cases in the higher age range so it is being looked at whether there is a new variant

I am skeptical about the new variant in NE although, of course, this needs to be checked and, hopefully, ruled out.

When Alpha first appeared in the UK, the growth initially started in Swale and Thanet and spread out to surrounding areas.

The rise of cases in NE occurred across a number of local authorities at the same time. Christina Pagel picked up on Newcastle but the fastest growing borough was in fact South Tyneside. It is still going up leading the growth across the rest of the region.

It is possible that the new variant was quickly seeded across NE but I will be surprised if it indeed turns out to be the case. For now I still believe the Warwick prediction (the highest wave in NE given relatively low acquired immunity from the winter wave) is a most likely explanation.

picking up on @Quartz2208's point.